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This Was the Year...


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... if any, to start 1-5 and have a backloadedly favorable schedule.

 

If the Bills lose tomorrow, only nine teams will have better records than we do, four from the AFC. (If Buffalo wins tomorrow, it would be 10.)

 

Of course, there are 9 or 10 tied with us. Most of them don't matter because they are in the NFC, we've beaten, or are going to win their division.

 

We need to keep winning.

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Possible wild card teams

Buffalo - @NE, @KC, HOU, @PHI, @WAS, DAL, NYJ

NY Jet - MIA, @NYG, TN, @DAL, NE, @BUF

Miami  - @NYJ, BAL, NYG, @SD, IND, NE

Pittsburgh - @SEA, IND, @CIN, DEN, @BAL, @CLE

Houston - NO, @BUF, NE, @IND, @TN, JAX

Indianoplace - TAM, @PIT, @JAX, HOU, @MIA, TN

Denver - NE, @SD, OAK, @PIT, CIN, SD

Oak L End - @TN, KC, @DEN, GB, SD, @KC

Kansas City - BUF, @OAK, SD, @BAL, CLE, OAK

 

Some of these teams play each other, and 10 - 6 may get in as a WC

 

The next opponent

KC plays at home against Buffalo.

Team O - even on paper (Truth, BB rolled up points on MIA, otherwise dismal, while KC 32.5 pts ave in last 4 games) KC has edge 

Team D - KC (KC is 7th best lowest yards, 9th best fewest points, 14th fewest yards pass, 3rd most INT, 6th most sacks, 4th fewest yards rushing, 9th fewest points surrendered - In fact there is not a single defensive category where BB are better than KC, well except for forced fumbles 5 to 7). 

 

Buffalo is the best team the Chiefs will face the rest of the way in the regular season. If the Bills lose the next two games (@NE, and @KC), they will be 5 - 6. 

KC should beat BUF @ home, IMNSHO.

After that, the Chiefs will play teams that have lost twice as many games as they have won.  

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Denver almost lost to Chicago. Chicago was one two point conversion from tying the game in the closing moments. So, it was not a stellar performance. 

 

Denver has three tough games remaining

Hard - New England (Home). I predict a loss

Easy - San Diego (Away). I predict a win

Moderate - Oakland (Home). I predict a win

Hard - Pittsburgh (Away). I predict a loss

Hard - Cincinnati (Home). I predict a win

Easy - San Diego (Home). I predict a win

 

If they lose all the hard games or two hard games and an another unexpected loss, then they will end their season 11-5. 

 

 

If Kansas City finishes each of their remaining games with a win, they will finish 11-5. In this comparison I project what would happen if the Chiefs won all those games, and Denver lost 3.

 

Tiebreaker

#2  division w/l percentage (if one of Denver's 3 losses is to OAK or SD, KC wins the AFC-W)

#3 w/l percentage common games (Denver would win the AFC-W based on head to head competition)

 

The only ways KC can win their division now is

-if Denver loses one more game than the Chiefs (4 or more)

-if Denver loses three more games to KC none, and one of those is against a division team (@SD, vs SD, vs OAK). 

 

The Chicago win was very important to Denver. They are now much more likely to win the AFC-W, but it ain't over. 

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I'll become a believer if the Chiefs beat the Bill at Arrowhead, which they should.  Until then, all hopes are on hold.  Still can't get the sour taste of the first Donks game and the Bears game out of my mouth.  Denver's win at Bears was a little disappointing, but gaining three games in seven weeks is always a long shot.

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If the Chiefs win out, on a total fluke, they could still possibly win the division.

Winning out would not be a fluke. At least it isn't any more of a fluke than the losses at the beginning of the year coming to good teams. I mean if the schedule was more evenly spread out between good and bad teams in the second and first half of the season, would that make us any worse or better? But it wouldn't also mean that they were going to win it all, either. But I would wait for that to happen before I would put any real argument into it.

 

Don't confuse that with me saying that we beat great teams. I'm just saying if the opponents are the same, regardless of order, it would not be a fluke to have a record against the teams we played. If we aren't good enough against the playoff teams in the playoffs or good to great teams in the regular season, that's a separate matter. I'm talking about the order of the games.

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Which remaining game (or games) will the Chiefs lose?  A Bills team coming off a very tough MNF game, a struggling Ravens team that just lost their QB, a hapless Browns team, three games against the bottom tier of their own division (two at home)?  I think they lose one because they just do that every year when they're favorites, but losing two will be disappointing barring serious injury problems.  10-6 will get them a wild card and possibly another shot at the Donks.  Just hope it's not at Indy.

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11 game winning streak is fluke territory.

 

It's really hard to win in the NFL and to do it that many games in a row.

 

I don't agree with that. There are teams in NFL history that have won that many games in a row and then some. 

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11 game winning streak is fluke territory.

 

It's really hard to win in the NFL and to do it that many games in a row.

An 11 game winning streak could only be a fluke as far as scheduling goes. And if that's the case, our hard start was a fluke too. But no one seemed to give too much effect to the hard schedule and instead freaked out. Now, when we have favorable schedule, it's been discounted as a fluke.

 

Now, beating easy teams and losing to hard teams, that's not a fluke and that is a bad sign for us.

 

I just don't give too much credence to the streak being a fluke. The reason is because if they gave us the easy end of schedule this year or next year or last year, winning near 11 would be an expectation, not an outlier. By definition, a fluke is an outlier. I wouldn't expect to go 11-0 every year with that schedule, but would I be as surprised as I would with a fluke?

 

Having said all that, let us win the rest of the games before we get caught up in that. The Chiefs are susceptible to losing even with this schedule.

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Which remaining game (or games) will the Chiefs lose? A Bills team coming off a very tough MNF game, a struggling Ravens team that just lost their QB, a hapless Browns team, three games against the bottom tier of their own division (two at home)? I think they lose one because they just do that every year when they're favorites, but losing two will be disappointing barring serious injury problems. 10-6 will get them a wild card and possibly another shot at the Donks. Just hope it's not at Indy.

I hope its at Indi. Time to beast those kids. Name me an AFC team that's a better matchup against NE. Pittsburg? Not likely. Stay healthy and anything can happen. Lets just make the dance first.

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An 11 game winning streak could only be a fluke as far as scheduling goes. And if that's the case, our hard start was a fluke too. But no one seemed to give too much effect to the hard schedule and instead freaked out. Now, when we have favorable schedule, it's been discounted as a fluke.

Now, beating easy teams and losing to hard teams, that's not a fluke and that is a bad sign for us.

I just don't give too much credence to the streak being a fluke. The reason is because if they gave us the easy end of schedule this year or next year or last year, winning near 11 would be an expectation, not an outlier. By definition, a fluke is an outlier. I wouldn't expect to go 11-0 every year with that schedule, but would I be as surprised as I would with a fluke?

Having said all that, let us win the rest of the games before we get caught up in that. The Chiefs are susceptible to losing even with this schedule.

Well yes, 1-5 was a fluke also and led to a bunch of questions for understandable reasons.

 

It's not even the streak after 1-5, if it were to happen. Them making the playoffs would count as they would be the 2nd team to ever do it.

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Which remaining game (or games) will the Chiefs lose? A Bills team coming off a very tough MNF game, a struggling Ravens team that just lost their QB, a hapless Browns team, three games against the bottom tier of their own division (two at home)? I think they lose one because they just do that every year when they're favorites, but losing two will be disappointing barring serious injury problems. 10-6 will get them a wild card and possibly another shot at the Donks. Just hope it's not at Indy.

Bills raiders
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