Alex Smith wants big money

[AlwaysChiefs 82]

I hope the Chiefs are competitive in every game, and dominant in at least a few.

[mongo 92]

I don't know if they have or have not. I won't know until I see them play.

No one does, of course.  I don't like what they've done this off-season so I'm skeptical.  I've been wrong before, and will gladly admit so if proven.

[KCSLC2008 605]

I was going to read this whole thread, quote certain posts, and comment, but I think I know everyone's stance and anyone who knew me before the closing of the old CC board knows mine. But I think no matter what I think, my conclusion is the same as those that don't believe in Alex: wait until after the season.

 

The reasoning for me is different than, say, Mongo's or Mr. Ev, but not so much in the process (and obviously conclusion).

 

Smith EARNED what he got - to keep his starting job as the unquestioned starter and the opportunity to prove his worth this coming year. He earned 2014. Whether other QBs would earn it too or better is irrelevant to me (unless they were suddenly available). He performed as expected or better. While Murray or Bray or someone else may prove to be the future (or not), he earned the right not to be looking over his shoulder this year. Go prove it. Whether he earns that right for 2015 is yet to be seen. (Don't confuse this with the right to keep one's job if they suck it up.)

 

He is set up in the best circumstances he possibly could this year more than any other year.

 

Some people may think 2011 or 2012 was his best chance, but that's just for the team. Any potential win would be seen as Trent Dilfer/Brad Johnson because he was never going to have 1542 yards in 6 games (4112 yard pace) in SF. That's not world beater by any means and pace arguments go nowhere fast because it lacks predictive context for the future, but he has an unguaranteed chance to produce some numbers in this system and a fair chance to win with his smarts and this team's talent. Yes, even with short, safe throws against questionable defenses, he wasn't going to produce in SF what he can produce here.

 

Not just quantity throws, he improved from 7 to 8 YPA in his second year with Harbaugh. Here, if he wins, it will be in a pass happy offense in the same offensive system. (Meaningless) Yards + wins? Better chance of getting what he wants: stability. (This team without SFs defense has less chance of SB than what Smith had in SF, but stability would never be his there, IMO.) He won't be HOF here or there, but he could prove many people wrong with what we have. If that warrants a long term contract is up to Dorsey, but his chance is best here. Low risk, high reward on this contract.

 

Some would say low probability, but screw that, I'm talking about potential and if he doesn't do it, it proves something. 

 

On a major contract, it's high risk and at best, on par reward. If we wait and he earns it, great, put some risk on 2015. If he does well in 2015, suddenly that roster date in April 2016 comes and passes quickly (meaning we retain him further).

 

The reason I feel this way is because I believe that Smith can and will prove himself. How much so and what he warrants, who knows, but I feel he will be given a good contract after he plays this one out. I could, of course, be wrong and that's where I differ with Mongo and Mr. Ev. One thing is for sure - If he doesn't prove it, I'm glad we saved the money - whether that be re-sign for less money or move on. If he gets injured, I'm glad we aren't just paying his insurance money so to speak.

 

I've never been against moving on from Smith if he doesn't prove it, he's the guy until he isn't. I hope that's a long time because that would mean he was doing something right (I trust Reid and Dorsey to know what they are doing). But I have been at times against those making definitive statements about his future or capabilities - though I admit that he's been playing long enough to have a sufficient amount of data to venture a good guess. There's a limit and I think it's subjective to a point and objective in some ways. We'll see and that's why we should wait. I believe in him but think we should wait.

[KCSLC2008 605]

People have such short memories.  Remember when we were a talented team with a crappy QB?  We had no chance.  The QB's who can lead you to victory are so few and so valuable, you HAVE to pay them big money. Alex Smith did wonders with our team in the first year. He is smart, a leader, accurate, super careful, doesn't give up the ball, and won us 11 games.  Whatever it takes to have a top tier QB, we simply have to pay.  The quickest way to make me give up on the Chiefs is to go back to the days after Trent Green.  I never want to deal with that again.  Do you think the Chiefs were really worse than the Broncos overall, or was it Manning?  I say it was Manning.  Until we know we have a guy who does what Smith can do, we have to keep him, no matter the price.  And if we do find a young guy that good, we are going to have to pay him that much in a few years, anyway.  Get over it. It is good old capitalism.  Supply and demand.  The demand is high and the supply is low.  That means the price is very high.  Period. This whole idea of deciding if he is "worth it" is irrelevant. The market determines whether and how much a quality QB is "worth it".

 

These things won't change this year, in my opinion. The positives will still be there and some negatives will be lessened. We can sign him later. That's why waiting is a good idea. Plus, injury.

 

GREAT POST BIL! You speak the truth. Look guys, Alex is a winner and he can make the plays that HAVE to be made. When it is 3rd and 7 and we are down by ten, he will get that first down 90% of the time with his arm or his feet. You can take it to the bank. People get so caught up in the stats, arm strength, and other things but, the reality is that's all about winning and making the plays that have to be made. I really like what Alex brings.

 

I share this belief, but know it's an opinion. He's not the only QB that can do this, he doesn't always do this, and there are better QBs that can do this more often - now who they are and whether they are available is a different matter. Whether Smith will get better at this, is just a guess. Circumstances, context, and a little bit of luck changes things.

 

Yeah, those ratings have to do with long passes.  Sure, they are exciting.  But getting the sure first down and continuing a drive is just as valuable in the end, because it tires the opposing defense, and that pays off in spades in the fourth quarter.  It just doesn't get represented as well in those fancy QB statistics.  But it is every bit as valuable to the team's fortunes.  Keep the other guys' defense on the field.  Make 'em work.  Make 'em tired.  Then you win when you have to.  All those late offensive heroics we showed last year.  Was that just providence?  No.  It was because Smith could move the team at will against a tired defense.  Pay the guy, and pay him big.

 

It works most of the time and it is smart. You have less chance of turning the ball over (zero chance of scoring on a turnover unless the defender fumbles). Higher chance of keeping a drive alive if you are smart. Fewer opportunities for the opponent to score - same number as yours but your possessions are more likely to be quality possessions. Without that ability to do more when needed it will only get you so far. This is where others opinions differ, but so be it, it's a message board and this is sports. I believe he has that ability and will do it more regularly than some and less than others - but more than before.

 

I'm certainly a believer. He put to bed the weak arm thing to which I crucified him for. He threw some beauties in the playoff game. He's a winner. Took a loser and gave them confidence. We need to sure up the secondary and we can still challenge the broncos.

 

This was a hesitation thing. He took what the defense gave him before Harbaugh. Harbaugh embraced that because he had limited confidence with Smith. Reid embraced it Weeks 1-9 and pushed it in Weeks 10 onward. I believe this offseason will help. He still doesn't have a strong arm and arm strength is more velocity issue than depth (what we saw in the Colts game) - accuracy was good and would likely always be good, but with less velocity, it gives the defender more time to fight the ball. Smart hesitations if you can't get that velocity - but open up a bit, you know? We saw that a little in the second half of the season, nothing earth shattering but a good step.

[KCSLC2008 605]

Why not just give him an incentive laden contract like Kapernick's? I'm not desperate to sign him. We can have him the next three years for sure if we want to. You can now franchise players twice. It just costs a lot the second time. However, he proved quite a bit to me. He definitely did enough to earn a new deal. We won two games the year before and picked first in the draft. Reid, Dorsey and Smith turned this thing around. Alex was a big part of that. I like the idea of consistency and stability at the QB position. I hope he is around for a while.

 

Montana's and Young's are extremely rare and hard to find. It's hard for me to understand where you are coming from. It's hard for me to understand who else you think you are going to get?

 

http://arrowheadaddict.com/2014/08/05/alex-smith-looking-doesnt-exist/#!bxLkia

 

He doesn't need money, he wants stability - doesn't mean he's going to get it. Barring injury, regression, or perhaps stagnation, he can get that incentive laden deal next year. Wait this year plus three years is more than sign what is essentially a three year deal now (2 additional years). He knows these incentive deals are short deals that give the team so much flexibility and incentive to move on to the rookie capped rookies. Don't confuse this with Smith wanting a free meal or no competition - he was replaced when playing well and winning because he had a deal that allowed a trade (Smith's 8 + Kaep's peanuts were keepable) - a 18 year deal must be cut or if traded, his new team believes.

[kcchief4lif 910]

I was going to read this whole thread, quote certain posts, and comment, but I think I know everyone's stance and anyone who knew me before the closing of the old CC board knows mine. But I think no matter what I think, my conclusion is the same as those that don't believe in Alex: wait until after the season.

 

The reasoning for me is different than, say, Mongo's or Mr. Ev, but not so much in the process (and obviously conclusion).

 

Smith EARNED what he got - to keep his starting job as the unquestioned starter and the opportunity to prove his worth this coming year. He earned 2014. Whether other QBs would earn it too or better is irrelevant to me (unless they were suddenly available). He performed as expected or better. While Murray or Bray or someone else may prove to be the future (or not), he earned the right not to be looking over his shoulder this year. Go prove it. Whether he earns that right for 2015 is yet to be seen. (Don't confuse this with the right to keep one's job if they suck it up.)

 

He is set up in the best circumstances he possibly could this year more than any other year.

 

Some people may think 2011 or 2012 was his best chance, but that's just for the team. Any potential win would be seen as Trent Dilfer/Brad Johnson because he was never going to have 1542 yards in 6 games (4112 yard pace) in SF. That's not world beater by any means and pace arguments go nowhere fast because it lacks predictive context for the future, but he has an unguaranteed chance to produce some numbers in this system and a fair chance to win with his smarts and this team's talent. Yes, even with short, safe throws against questionable defenses, he wasn't going to produce in SF what he can produce here.

 

Not just quantity throws, he improved from 7 to 8 YPA in his second year with Harbaugh. Here, if he wins, it will be in a pass happy offense in the same offensive system. (Meaningless) Yards + wins? Better chance of getting what he wants: stability. (This team without SFs defense has less chance of SB than what Smith had in SF, but stability would never be his there, IMO.) He won't be HOF here or there, but he could prove many people wrong with what we have. If that warrants a long term contract is up to Dorsey, but his chance is best here. Low risk, high reward on this contract.

 

Some would say low probability, but screw that, I'm talking about potential and if he doesn't do it, it proves something. 

 

On a major contract, it's high risk and at best, on par reward. If we wait and he earns it, great, put some risk on 2015. If he does well in 2015, suddenly that roster date in April 2016 comes and passes quickly (meaning we retain him further).

 

The reason I feel this way is because I believe that Smith can and will prove himself. How much so and what he warrants, who knows, but I feel he will be given a good contract after he plays this one out. I could, of course, be wrong and that's where I differ with Mongo and Mr. Ev. One thing is for sure - If he doesn't prove it, I'm glad we saved the money - whether that be re-sign for less money or move on. If he gets injured, I'm glad we aren't just paying his insurance money so to speak.

 

I've never been against moving on from Smith if he doesn't prove it, he's the guy until he isn't. I hope that's a long time because that would mean he was doing something right (I trust Reid and Dorsey to know what they are doing). But I have been at times against those making definitive statements about his future or capabilities - though I admit that he's been playing long enough to have a sufficient amount of data to venture a good guess. There's a limit and I think it's subjective to a point and objective in some ways. We'll see and that's why we should wait. I believe in him but think we should wait.

Pretty much.

[mongo 92]

The Chiefs are absolutely right to take a wait and see approach with Al.  Let's see how he does.

 

Alex Smith will never be a "carry the team" QB.  This year that will be exposed.  He does not have the ability to elevate the play of those around him.  That's why he succeeded and failed in SF.  Generally speaking he stank when the team stank.  He succeeded when the Niners built a very good team and a competent front office and coaching staff around him.  The Chiefs simply aren't there yet.

 

This team's offense is one player -- Jamaal Charles.  He makes Al better, not the other way around.  They paid the right player.  Next should be Berry (for cap relief), then Houston.