KCCrow's Mock Draft 2.0 (11/27/15 "Midseason Edition")

[kccrow 529]

For those of you that don't lurk at the Planet to see my mocks...

 

Preface: The Chiefs have made a consistent ascent towards the top half of the NFL over the past 4 weeks, and it appears their schedule is favorable for a continued climb towards playoff contention. This likely puts the Chiefs in the bottom third of the draft and out of contention for top-tier prospects, including the most draftable QBs.

Round 1: Jack Conklin - OT - Michigan State
6'6' 318
 

The Chiefs need a reliable, steady presence at right tackle. With the growth of Eric Fisher on the left side, its safe to bet the Chiefs look for a guy that can come in and make an immediate impact opposite him. Both Jack Conklin of MSU and Taylor Decker of OSU should be in play here, but Conklin has been slightly more reliable in pass protection and may make coaches a bit more comfortable if an injury were to force him to the left side.
... And Chiefs' Nation cringes ...

Round 2: Vonn Bell - SS - Ohio State
5'11" 205



With free agency likely to take its toll on KC in the secondary during the offseason (Sean Smith, Eric Berry, Husain Abdullah, and so forth), the Chiefs will very likely need to look for some new blood. Vonn Bell may be the most well-rounded safety in this draft and has a skill set that will allow him to play either FS or SS. The only real question at this point will be whether or not he's available in the latter stages of round two. Bell is a rangy playmaker on the football and is nearly always in position to make tackles in the run game. Very similar to current Chief Eric Berry. In fact, the future of Eric Berry with the Chiefs could impact this selection. If it comes down to keeping Sean Smith or keeping Eric Berry, I have to say I'd go with Sean Smith. There's just a higher premium on good CBs.

Round 3: Chris Jones - DT - Mississippi State
6'5" 308



The Chiefs will have some questions to answer in the offseason regarding Jaye Howard and Mike DeVito given their free agent status. While its best to keep Howard for the long-term, KC needs depth at the position. Jones has been ascending up draft boards since the middle of 2014 as he's dropped weight and has played at a higher level. Jones is a tough one-on-one block and can pressure the passer. Given his recent good play against the run he might go even higher than the 3rd round, especially if he shows well in an offseason all-star game.

Round 4: Gabe Marks - WR - Washington State
6'0" 186



The Chiefs, despite improved play at the position, still lack explosiveness at the wide receiver spot. Marks is a very quick, shifty receiver that accelerates quickly and can turn short passes into big plays. Marks has reliable hands, and brings a tough attitude with him. Marks reminds me of Stefon Diggs, who I was very high on last year, and would fit the X receiver role, his position with the Cougars, very well in the pros.

Round 5: Kyler Fackrell - OLB - Utah State
6'5" 250



The Chiefs really missed hard with Dee Ford, or so it appears to date. With Tamba Hali's age becoming more and more apparent, Kansas City really needs to try to bolster the pass rush going forward. Fackrell is a tough block with great edge speed and the ability to consistently push the pocket. PFF had him as college football's best pass rusher a month ago if you subscribe to their rating methods. Even if you don't like PFF, he was one of the top players in the nation in QB pressures. The key with Fackrell really is his ability to play as a stand-up linebacker, being both a solid pass defender and run stopper in addition to his pass rushing duties. However, like so many other smaller school products, Fackrell will really need some time in an NFL weight room.

Round 5: Trevone Boykin - QB - Texas Christian
6'1' 205



The Chiefs are always in a position to update the QB spot, but with at top-10 selection unlikely, they may have to take another mid round flier. Here's two things I'm certain of with Boykin: he can throw the football anywhere on the field and he's very athletic which allows him to extend plays and make plays with his feet. What we don't know about Boykin though makes him a tough evaluation. Is Boykin actually 6'1" as listed? While there are a few exemptions, size matters with regard to QBs. Boykin comes from a QB friendly, college spread offense. Can he take his skills to the next level where he'll have to learn to take snaps from under center and, more importantly, make reads against NFL defenses? The latter half of the last question is my main concern with Boykin. He makes some questionable throws into tight coverage that he won't get away with in the NFL. He also seems to lock onto targets early. Both of these are problems directly attributable to the offense he plays in. Whether or not he can take hold of an NFL offense is something for NFL personnel men to evalutate thoroughly. If he can hack it, Boykin could end up a late round steal.

Round 6: Tra Carson - RB - Texas A&M
5'11" 235



I really love big, one-cut and go running backs with a bulldozer mentality; guys kind of like Eddie Lacy. That's a big reason I love Arkansas back Alex Collins, but I don't think the Chiefs need to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick on the position. The Chiefs are very fortunate that they have found some gems in Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, especially West. With Jamaal Charles suffering yet another injury and Knile Davis firmly in the dog house (and well warranted), the Chiefs may want to look at some insurance and draft a guy. Carson is a low miles, big back, that hits the hole with conviction and has enough speed to break some runs. Carson is also a very solid receiver out of the backfield, which is an absolute necessity in an Andy Reid offense.

Round 7: Clint Van Horn - OT - Marshall
6'5" 310



The Chiefs offensive line woes are well documented, and it never hurts to keep bringing in competition. The way Jeff Allen is playing this year, he is earning himself a new contract. The Chiefs still remain unsettled at guard though going forward. I've always admired the Packers' philosophy of taking moderately athletic, but very solid tackles and turning them into guards. I see that type of player with Marshall's Van Horn. He's a mountain of a man that is nearly impossible to get around in close quarters. While arguably the best offensive lineman in Conference USA as a right tackle, his best position in the NFL is probably at guard where his skill set can shine through. He has a strong punch to stonewall rushers and can generate movement in the run game.

[KCSLC2008 606]

Would you trade that fifth rounder you spent for Boykin to someone with your first to get a quarterback? I assume your mock is a no trades mock.

[jetlord 10,209]

Ironic that you have an OG in the seventh when the Chiefs wouldn't even take Collins this year in the last round.  I'm still bummed about that.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

Not a big fan of Conklin, or addressing tackle again in the first.  It's a position that needs to be finally fleshed out to completion in FA.

 

I'd assume Howard will be extended, making DT not so critical.  Could use some late round attention.

 

Boykin is a WR in the NFL.

[Calichief 3,016]

I would like to see a qb, another DB starter, and ILB

[jetlord 10,209]

Question for Crow:

 

How much is it worth to draft O-linemen in the first round rather than in the second or third.  Guess I"m asking if teams get that much better spending the first round picks on OT rather than a skill position or pass rusher.  I know lots of teams put top value on LT but haven't a lot of good ones come out of second day picks?  This isn't a comintary on your mock, but you seem to study the draft a lot and I'm asking an honest question.  Unless there's a real "can't miss" freak in the first round, I'd rather see Sean Smith's replacement or such if the line can be filled in the second/third rounds.

[eraser 722]

Boykin probably knows he will not be playing QB in college. He is a tremendous athlete. I like his receiver, Josh Doctson. Comes from a good family. Doctson should be a good pro, who will continue to work at his game at the next level. Boykin would be a fine addition. 

[KCSLC2008 606]

Boykin probably knows he will not be playing QB in the NFL. He is a tremendous athlete. I like his receiver, Josh Doctson. Comes from a good family. Doctson should be a good pro, who will continue to work at his game at the next level. Boykin would be a fine addition.

Fixed it for you.

[NChiefsCorner 496]

Carolina Panthers RT Mike Remmers was an UDFA.

[eraser 722]

Fixed it for you.

Thanks. 

[Calichief 3,016]

Hogan is starting to look good again:

 

Maybe a mid round pick.

[SEMO 6,811]

Jalen Ramsey is my early man crash for this year. Dude is gonna be a freakin stud FS in the NFL. This year's athletic equivalent to Byron Jones. He is the type of player Dorsey loves.

[kccrow 529]

Question for Crow:

 

How much is it worth to draft O-linemen in the first round rather than in the second or third.  Guess I"m asking if teams get that much better spending the first round picks on OT rather than a skill position or pass rusher.  I know lots of teams put top value on LT but haven't a lot of good ones come out of second day picks?  This isn't a comintary on your mock, but you seem to study the draft a lot and I'm asking an honest question.  Unless there's a real "can't miss" freak in the first round, I'd rather see Sean Smith's replacement or such if the line can be filled in the second/third rounds.

 

 

Here's a really good article for you, which is quite accurate. http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Another fun read: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/04/09/analyzing-the-nfl-draft-the-safest-positions-to-target-in-the-first-round/

[kccrow 529]

A little tidbit from NFL.com on 1st round pick staying power... http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000340246/article/which-firstround-picks-have-most-staying-power

 

Only covers 1999-2008, but its interesting nonetheless.

[kccrow 529]

Boykin probably knows he will not be playing QB in college. He is a tremendous athlete. I like his receiver, Josh Doctson. Comes from a good family. Doctson should be a good pro, who will continue to work at his game at the next level. Boykin would be a fine addition. 

 

Not necessarily true. The kid can throw the ball anywhere on the field and is able to extend plays and make plays with his feet. The only questions on whether or not he can play QB in the NFL are:

1. Can he make NFL reads in an NFL offense?

Being a product of a spread offense, like so many other QBs in college, this will be a recurring question for many players other than just Boykin.

2. Is he his listed size of 6'2" 205, or is he smaller?

While there are certainly a few exemptions, size always matters with QBs. 6'1" is tolerable. Even 6'0" is workable. Its extremely rare to see success under 6'0".

3. Can he shed his tendency to lock onto his #1 read?

Boykin isn't the only college QB guilty of this, and especially spread QBs.

 

Aside from size, Boykin and Marcus Mariota are extremely similar players. Boykin will need a bit of work on his throwing mechanics, and an evaluation of his mental acumen for the game will have to be decided, but there is no doubt the physical tools are there for him to play QB in the NFL. I think people are far too quickly making assumptions on his ability to be an NFL QB. There's alot of evaluation to be done yet. 

[Calichief 3,016]

Not necessarily true. The kid can throw the ball anywhere on the field and is able to extend plays and make plays with his feet. The only questions on whether or not he can play QB in the NFL are:

1. Can he make NFL reads in an NFL offense?

Being a product of a spread offense, like so many other QBs in college, this will be a recurring question for many players other than just Boykin.

2. Is he his listed size of 6'2" 205, or is he smaller?

While there are certainly a few exemptions, size always matters with QBs. 6'1" is tolerable. Even 6'0" is workable. Its extremely rare to see success under 6'0".

3. Can he shed his tendency to lock onto his #1 read?

Boykin isn't the only college QB guilty of this, and especially spread QBs.

 

Aside from size, Boykin and Marcus Mariota are extremely similar players. Boykin will need a bit of work on his throwing mechanics, and an evaluation of his mental acumen for the game will have to be decided, but there is no doubt the physical tools are there for him to play QB in the NFL. I think people are far too quickly making assumptions on his ability to be an NFL QB. There's alot of evaluation to be done yet.

What about this kid at Oregon now??

And hogan?

[kccrow 529]

What about this kid at Oregon now??

And hogan?

 

Vernon Adams? No.

 

Hogan... I'm very lukewarm on him. Right now, I have him either late 2nd or early 3rd as a high point. Has some good traits. Has some awful traits. We'll see. Long delivery, benefit of a great offensive line and a great running game, ho-hum stats. I dunno. He isn't bad, but he hasn't shown me enough to warrant a 1st round pick by any stretch.

[jetlord 10,209]

Here's a really good article for you, which is quite accurate. http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Another fun read: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/04/09/analyzing-the-nfl-draft-the-safest-positions-to-target-in-the-first-round/

After reading both links, I still feel that drafting OL in the first round is over-rated.  The first article did state that second round OL were nearly as likely to start as those drafted in the first.  Sure, first round is better, but my point is that drafting 1. CB and 2. OL is better than the reverse if both fill positions of need.  Just wanted your viewpoints about this.  Thanks for responding.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

Not necessarily true. The kid can throw the ball anywhere on the field and is able to extend plays and make plays with his feet. The only questions on whether or not he can play QB in the NFL are:

1. Can he make NFL reads in an NFL offense?

Being a product of a spread offense, like so many other QBs in college, this will be a recurring question for many players other than just Boykin.

2. Is he his listed size of 6'2" 205, or is he smaller?

While there are certainly a few exemptions, size always matters with QBs. 6'1" is tolerable. Even 6'0" is workable. Its extremely rare to see success under 6'0".

3. Can he shed his tendency to lock onto his #1 read?

Boykin isn't the only college QB guilty of this, and especially spread QBs.

 

Aside from size, Boykin and Marcus Mariota are extremely similar players. Boykin will need a bit of work on his throwing mechanics, and an evaluation of his mental acumen for the game will have to be decided, but there is no doubt the physical tools are there for him to play QB in the NFL. I think people are far too quickly making assumptions on his ability to be an NFL QB. There's alot of evaluation to be done yet.

 

I don't think so. Mariota ran a complex offense, for a spread offense standard, and I seen him make a lot of NFL throws.

 

The offense Boykin is in isn't complex and I haven't really seen him toss many challenging throws.

 

I'm really just not impressed with Big XII QB's. For whatever reason, they just don't pan out.

 

Also if Boykin is 6'2" than my wiener is bigger than John Holmes's.

[kccrow 529]

After reading both links, I still feel that drafting OL in the first round is over-rated.  The first article did state that second round OL were nearly as likely to start as those drafted in the first.  Sure, first round is better, but my point is that drafting 1. CB and 2. OL is better than the reverse if both fill positions of need.  Just wanted your viewpoints about this.  Thanks for responding.

 

I agree with you, just very much depends on how the offseason is handled. If the Chiefs do not re-sign Smith, then an early round CB may be in the cards.

[Mugsy 225]

I don't think Dorsey ever planned to re-sign Sean Smith. He is essentially a stop gap free agent who over performed. Gaines will start next year and Nelson will move into the nickel. Berry, Allen, and Howard will be re-signed or one will be franchised. I think we will draft a D-linemen in the first round. We need four of them that can start to effectively run Sutton's defense. 

[jetlord 10,209]

The Chiefs are on a five game win streak and 80% to get a wild card and we're talking draft and player movement.    

 

I'm not so sold on Gaines as to not want them to draft Smith's replacement.  Two solid corners and a nickle are mandatory.  Peters and a first day pick next year wouldn't disappoint me.

[SEMO 6,811]

I don't think Dorsey ever planned to re-sign Sean Smith. He is essentially a stop gap free agent who over performed. Gaines will start next year and Nelson will move into the nickel. Berry, Allen, and Howard will be re-signed or one will be franchised. I think we will draft a D-linemen in the first round. We need four of them that can start to effectively run Sutton's defense. 

Why would you take Parker out of the nickel spot?  He is excelling there.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

I put a CB in my 2nd day mock for that reason. Think he punched his ticket out of town the moment he struck a light pole.

 

That's why they gambled with Peters.

[Mugsy 225]

Why would you take Parker out of the nickel spot?  He is excelling there.

 

I like him there too but, I think the plan is for him to play safety. He was a starting safety until Gaines got hurt. I like him better in the nickel than at safety for sure. I just think they re-signed him to play safety for the most part and Nelson was definitely drafted to play nickel back. He is the type of nickel corner I believe Sutton likes. He is in the smaller/shifty mold of guys like Flowers, Owens, and Wilson (Jets). Gaines is a long/tall sprinter who was drafted to play outside. Sean Smith won't be re-signed and Gaines will start.

 

I really think we go d-line in the first this year. Again, we need four of them and Howard and Devito will be free agents. 

 

If I were a betting man, I think we re-sign Berry and Allen. Place the franchise tag on Howard and let Sean Smith walk. I am not sure what they'll do with DJ and Hali just yet. I am thinking DJ might be gone and March will start next year. If it were up to me, I'd find a way to keep Tamba.