AFC playoff picture: Chiefs winning AFC West over Broncos not *that* crazy with tiebreakers

[kcchief4lif 910]

Never would have thought this possible around mid October!!  Makes ya wonder how the 2nd raiders game will be played if there is a shot at a home playoff game??

 

 

The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-5 and sit two games behind the 10-3 Denver Broncos in the AFC West. It's not *that* crazy to see the Chiefs come back and win the AFC West once you look at the schedules of each team.

The Chiefs need to go plus-two to tie the Broncos and potentially win the division. If they end up in a tie, the Chiefs have a good shot at winning the tiebreaker with their 4-1 division record. Denver has a 3-2 division record with each team playing one more divisional game.

Here are the tiebreakers applied to the division:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the teams).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

The Chiefs have a good shot at sweeping the rest of their schedule, which would put them at 11-5 on the season with a 5-1 division record. If the Broncos lost two more games, the Chiefs would then win the division because they would hold the tiebreaker (division record).

The Chiefs will be favored in each of their remaining games, including 7-point favorites over the Ravens this weekend. The Broncos are 5.5-point underdogs in Pittsburgh this weekend. That would be step one ....

Chiefs schedule: at Ravens, Browns, Raiders

Broncos schedule: at Steelers, Bengals, Chargers

AFC playoff picture

(Overall record, AFC record)

1. New England Patriots (11-2, 8-1)

2. Cincinnati Bengals (10-3, 8-2)

3. Denver Broncos (10-3, 6-3)

4. Indianapolis Colts (6-7, 4-5)

5. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5, 7-2)

6. New York Jets (8-5, 6-4)

In the hunt

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5, 5-4)

8. Oakland Raiders (6-7, 6-4)

9. Buffalo Bills (6-7, 6-5)

10. Houston Texans (6-7, 4-5)

11. Miami Dolphins (5-7, 3-6)

As for the Wild Card, the Chiefs hold the head to head tiebreaker over Steelers, Raiders (currently), Bills and Texans. They're looking pretty good there if they can keep winning.

There is a real question if the Chiefs want to win the division as the likely three seed or remain the top Wild Card team. If they're the No. 5 seed, playing the AFC South winner seems a lot more appetizing than playing, say, the Steelers as the sixth seed.

 

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/12/14/10104770/afc-playoff-picture-chiefs-winning-afc-west-over-broncos-tiebreakers

[eraser 722]

Before the Red Rider got his Right hand busted, I believed Denver was set up to lose against Cincinnati. Now that Dalton is out, I'm not so certain this will be so. AJ McCarron replaced Andy Dalton, and announced he was the second coming of Tom Brady. He threw a TD pass to AJ (not related) Green. That was exciting, but most of the fun ended there. McCarron threw two interceptions, and lost the game. Tom Brady took over for Drew Bledsoe in game two, and did not throw an INT until the debacle @ Denver (game 7), where he threw 4. 

 

Pittsburgh looks much better now that Roethlisberger has returned to the lineup. They worry me a little. I would not wish the Chiefs to play at Pittsburgh in the playoffs. I think the Steelers have a decent shot at beating Denver. 

 

The final game for Denver is a home game against San Diego. Will Manning be back, or will it still be B O? Who cares? The Broncos are done, stick a fork in them. However, San Diego is still probably not good enough to beat Denver at Mile High. It would be nice though. 

[PhataLerror 370]

There is a real question if the Chiefs want to win the division as the likely three seed or remain the top Wild Card team. If they're the No. 5 seed, playing the AFC South winner seems a lot more appetizing than playing, say, the Steelers as the sixth seed.

This the really tricky part. I almost wrote a post about it last night, but I wanted to show my work, and I was already too tired.

 

Here's the abbreviated version, and you folks can use my recent posts on tie-breakers to sort out everything yourselves:

 

• If the Chiefs enter the playoffs as a wild card team, their seeding will determine whether they play on the road against the eventual AFC South winner, or whether they will travel to the lowest-seeded division-winning team between the AFC East (Patriots or Jets), AFC North (Bengals or Steelers), and the Broncos.

 

• If the Chiefs win out (11-5) and the Broncos lose any two out of three (11-5) or if the Chiefs win two out of their next three (10-6) and the Broncos lose out (10-6), the Chiefs would win the AFC West and seed no less than third (a 10-6 record as the AFC West-winning team would lock the Chiefs into the third seed).

 

• If the Chiefs win the AFC West with an 11-5 record, to seed second they would need either for the Patriots to lose out (11-5) or for the Bengals to lose their final three games (10-6) or for the Steelers to win the AFC North with an 11-5 record on the basis of the Strength of Victory tie-breaker (which requires both that the Bengals lose their two remaining conference games and that the Cardinals and Colts win as many games as or more games than the Bills and Seahawks).

 

• If the Chiefs win the AFC West with an 11-5 record, to seed first they would need the Patriots to lose out (11-5) and the Bengals to lose two or three out of their final three games (no better than 11-5).

 

The results of week 15 will make one of the above-mentioned scenarios far more probable than the others. It's hard to imagine that the Patriots will finish this season any worse than 13-3, and even without Andy Dalton, it seems that the Bengals should be able to finish with at least an 11-5 record and win the AFC North regardless of what the Steelers do. The most probable finish considering where the Broncos are at is that they finish 12-4 with a win against the Bengals that forces the Bengals into the Wild Card round of the playoffs. So here's what is most likely:

 

1. Patriots (13-3)

2. Broncos (12-4)

3. Bengals (11-5)

4. Colts (8-8)

5. Chiefs (11-5)

6. Steelers* (11-5)

 

In this scenario, the Chiefs would play against Indianapolis, and if they were to win, they would face Denver or New England depending on the result of the Bengals vs. Steelers game.

 

If the Chiefs win the AFC West, one might wonder whether it was worth it:

 

1. Patriots (13-3)

2. Bengals (12-4)

3. Chiefs (11-5)

4. Colts (8-8)

5. Steelers (11-5)

6. Broncos (11-5)

 

In this scenario, it is assumed that the Jets finished 10-6, although if they win out and are tied with the Steelers and the Broncos, the Broncos would be eliminated from the playoffs. (In fact, as currently scheduled, if the Broncos were to lose their next two games while the Steelers and the Jets win both of their next two, the results of the early-afternoon week 17 games of the Steelers and Jets could potentially decide if the Broncos' late-afternoon game against the Chargers even matters.)

 

Here, the Chiefs host the Broncos in the Wild Card Playoff, and if they win, they would travel to Cincinnati to play against a rested and healthy Bengals team.

 

If the Chiefs don't get a playoff bye, it seems better to me that they play in Indianapolis rather than against the Broncos, regardless of who their quarterback may be. Things get dicier if the Broncos finish ahead of the Steelers because the Steelers dropped a game but still finish ahead of the Jets: The Chiefs would host the Steelers.

 

I'm not worried about the results of the Wild Card round, in which I believe the Chiefs right now either at home or on the road could beat any team in the AFC. I'm more concerned with the potential for the Chiefs' first-round opponent beating them up and leaving them vulnerable heading into a Divisional playoff against a rested team.

 

It is of note that while the Steelers are currently behind the Jets in the standings, if both teams win out but don't win their divisions, the tie-breaker between those teams would be Strength of Victory, and the Jets are well behind the Steelers in that tie-breaker. The Jets are rooting heavily for Miami tonight, and they desperately need to win their game against the Patriots (concerning this tie-breaker, the most important game for the Steelers to win would be their next game against the Broncos).

[jetlord 10,209]

Good info, PhataL.  I've been all through it myself and there's more permutations this year with only three games remaining than most years.  It all boils down to the Chiefs winning out.  Anything less is a danger unless the Jets lose to NE, and remember, the Jets have yet to win a game over a team with a .500 record or better this year.  One new possibility is that with Dalton down, CINN could lose the division to the Steelers if PIT wins out and then the Bengals would probably gain the fifth seed and push the Chiefs down to sixth even if they win the last three.  Bottom line: We really need the Bengals to beat the Donks and that is a lot less likely with Dalton out.  We really, really need for the Chiefs to win out.