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About Winning Games Against Losing Teams


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How hard is it to go through an entire season and lose to only "good teams"? If we use a winning percentage of .500 as the point of separation between "good teams" and "bad teams", it is interesting to note the following facts connected with the 14 NFL teams that could potentially play in the 2015 post-season:

 

NFC

Panthers (14-1): No losses to bad teams

Cardinals (13-2): Lost against the 7-8 Rams

Packers (10-5): Lost against the 6-9 Lions and the 6-9 Bears

Redskins (8-7): Lost against the 5-10 Dolphins, 6-9 Giants, and 4-11 Cowboys

Vikings (10-5): Lost against the 4-11 49ers

Seattle (9-6): Lost against the 7-8 Rams twice

 

AFC

Patriots (12-3): Lost against the 6-9 Eagles

Bengals (11-3): No losses to bad teams

Broncos (10-4): Lost against the 7-8 Colts and the 7-8 Raiders

Texans (8-7): Lost against the 7-8 Colts, 5-10 Dolphins, and 7-8 Bills

Chiefs (10-5): Lost against the 6-9 Bears

Jets (10-5): Lost against the 6-9 Eagles, 7-8 Raiders, and 7-8 Bills

Steelers (9-6): Lost against the Ravens twice

Colts (7-8): Lost against the 7-8 Bills, 6-9 Saints, and 5-10 Jaguars

 

Every team in the league has lost a game against a team eliminated from the post-season except for one: The Bengals. That will cease to be true if the Bengals don't win against the 5-10 Ravens in week 17, if the Jets win or if the Steelers lose next week (the Bengals lost to the Steelers).

 

There is such a thin margin for error in the NFL. It only takes a number of injuries or a freak play to completely change the outcome of a game, and teams that can manage winning streaks into the double-digits are doing something very rare, regardless of whether or not a number of the opponents would be considered "quality opponents". The Chiefs, hardly a perfect team, are a win away from establishing a new franchise record for consecutive wins in a single season. (There are thirteen other NFL franchises that don't have a single-season double-digit win streak since the AFL-NFL merger.) Interestingly, the last time they made it as far as nine consecutive wins, a bye week interrupted their momentum, and their streak came to an end a week later in Denver.

 

The Chiefs beat the Browns today, and they very well may come out of the week healthier than they went in, which would be another victory of sorts. Next week, the Chiefs could very well be playing for the division and a home game in the wild card playoff. The 7-8 Raiders would love to put an end to the Chiefs' win streak, to their ambitions for the AFC West, and to any other positive momentum that they have going forward. These games matter, and no matter how close the score is at the end of the game, or how close the opponent came to winning if only football games were 61 minutes long, if the Chiefs win, it is good enough. There are six other playoff teams that have been less reliable in winning games against "bad teams" than the Chiefs have been. If the Chiefs can be put into the same category as the Patriots, Cardinals, and Vikings when it comes to steadiness, that's hardly bad company.

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