Offseason Plan 4: Postseason Edition

[kccrow 529]

Offseason Plan 4: Postseason Edition

Chiefs EFRAs & RFAs
Charcandrick West (RB) - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Daniel Sorensen (SS) - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
Nicholas Williams (DL) - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.
David King (DL) - 1 year, $600,000. Cap hit of $600,000.

Chiefs UFAs
Eric Berry (SS) - 5 year, $48 million with $15 million signing bonus and $22 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of $7.5, 9.0, 9.0, 11.0, and 11.5 million. Average annual cap hit of $9.6 million.
Jaye Howard (DL) - 4 year, $25 million with $9 million signing bonus and $11.1 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of $4.5, 5.7, 6.8, and 8.0 million. Average annual cap hit of $6.25 million.
Jeff Allen (OG/T) - 4 year, $17 million with $4 million signing bonus and $5.5 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of $2.5, 4.5, 4.7, and 5.3 million. Average annual cap hit of $4.25 million.
Derrick Johnson (ILB) - 2 year, $7.5 million with $3 million signing bonus. Cap hits of $3.5 and 4.0 million. Average annual cap hit of $3.75 million.
Tamba Hali (OLB) - 1 year, $3 million fully guaranteed base. Cap hit of $4 million ($1 prorated from void contract years).
Tyvon Branch (FS) - 2 year, $3.5 million, $1 million signing bonus and $2 million in total guarantees. Cap hits of $1.7 and 1.8 million.
Frank Zombo (OLB) - 1 year, $840,000 with $50,000 signing bonus. Cap hit of 665,000.

Chiefs PS
The Chiefs sign all practice squad players to minimum futures contracts: Tyrell Adams (LB), Da'Ron Brown (WR), Reid Fragel (OT), Laurence Gibson (OT), Michael Liedtke (OG), Daniel Munyer (OC), Darrin Reaves (RB), Jimmy Staten (DT), Ross Travis (TE), Fred Williams (WR)

Allowed to Walk
Sean Smith (CB), Chase Daniel (QB), Mike DeVito (DL), Husain Abdullah (FS), Donald Stephenson (OT), Jamell Fleming (CB), Jason Avant (WR), Dezman Moses (OLB)

Cap Notes & Estimates
*Cap hit for Tyler Bray in 2016 is 620,000.
*Estimated cap hit for Jah Reid is 1.76 million (860,000 salary was reported, guessing that is guaranteed along with guessing a 3 million signing bonus, 150,000 annual workout bonus, and 1 million roster bonus in 2018).
*Estimated cap hit for Demetrius Harris is 1.44 million (reported 3 year extension worth 6.3 million, guessing minimum salaries of $600k, 690k, and 790k, 2.77 million signing bonus, 150,000 annual workout bonus, and 1 million roster bonus in 2018).
*Spending prior to draft class at $144.5 million. Draft class reserve at $7 million. Total cap hits $151.5 million. Expected cap $152 million.

Draft
R1: Will Fuller, WR - Notre Dame (6'0" 186)



It became painfully obvious watching the playoff game against New England that the Chiefs need more playmakers. The need for playmakers starts at receiver. The cupboard has been bare at the position for some time in KC, at least up until the addition of Jeremy Maclin, but he can't do it all on his own. Will Fuller is a Jeremy Maclin-like player with great quickness and speed, plus outstanding route running and hands. Truly a threat to take it for six whenever he gets his hands on the football.

R2: Artie Burns, CB - Miami (6'0" 193)



Once again, its all about playmakers, so KC will have to continue to go to the well to fill those voids. With Sean Smith a free agent, and some serious lack of overall depth on the corner to begin with, the Chiefs will have to visit this position early on. Burns is an athletic press-man corner that can play the football, but will need some time to develop into a stouter run defender.

R3: Sebastian Tretola, OG - Arkansas (6'5" 335)



Watching the Chiefs abhorrent offensive line this season has made me quake with rage at times. The Chiefs really have to do something to make the line respectable, and that really starts at guard and right tackle. The Chiefs acquisitions at guard in 2015 did nothing to help by both ending up on IR eventually. Grubbs looked like a shade of his former self and Fanaika never was much to begin with. The Chiefs best performer at the position, Jeff Allen, is a free agent and is too often knicked up which makes one wonder if the team will retain his services. Zach Fulton has looked much better inside at center than at guard, and the only remaining guard, Duvernay-Tardiff, showed signs but just wasn't quite there from strength and technique standpoints. I really love this Tretola kid, he's a mammoth that moves well, plays with some nasty, and plays through the whistle. Tretola gets good movement in the run game, is a load to try to get around in the pass game, and gets to second level blocks and makes contact.

R4: Ian Seau, DE/OLB - Nevada (6'2" 255)



I'm a huge believer in having rotational strength at the pass rusher position, and the value of this was never more apparent than with the 2015 Chiefs. Tamba Hali will likely get re-signed should he decide he wants to play another year, but with KC's depth players, Zombo and Moses, both set to be free agents the Chiefs may decide to add some developmental youth via the draft. I'm not confusing Ian Seau with his uncle, Junior, but this kid has some talent on his own. Ian actually reminds me most of Hali: he's relentless, he's got a good first step, he's solid rushing the passer and playing the run, and nobody will mistake him as an All-Pro coverage linebacker. Seau is just one of those guys that can come in and be a solid football player every down.

R5: Malcolm Mitchell, WR - Georgia (6'1" 195)



The Chiefs had some serious talent issues at receiver this past season so depth also has to be addressed. Mitchell is one of the best athletes to ever hit the field at Georgia, but an ACL tear really put the breaks on what was turning out to be a stellar career. Mitchell worked his way back, but it didnt' happen overnight. He once again looks to be a strong playmaker on the outside and is an extremely reliable inside slant and quick out receiver.

R5: Tyler Johnstone, OT - Oregon (6'6" 300)



While the Chiefs spent some serious cash locking up Jah Reid for three years, he isn't an answer you want to continue on with. So, once again, I have the Chiefs going for an offensive lineman. Johnstone is solid tackle prospect with the foot speed to stop pass rushers and to get out on the second level on run plays. Solid at sealing run lanes. Keeps his QB clean. Plays through the whistle and with a bit of nasty. Looks like he could be a force once he adds 15 pounds of NFL muscle. Would likely be considered a day two prospect if not for his ACL injuries.

R6: Deon Bush, FS - Miami (6'1" 205)



The Chiefs have been fortunate that John Dorsey finds some bargain pick-ups at safety, including Tyvon Branch and Husain Abdullah. With the salary cap situation and Berry, Abdullah, and Branch all being free agents, it may be likely that at least one won't return. Bush is a playmaker and ferocious hitter, but he does have his occassional mistakes that go along with that type of player. Bush should be an outstanding special teams gunner and spot player as he learns to take better angles and read opposing offenses.

R7: Frankie Williams, CB - Purdue (5'9" 190)



I've expressed my displeasure repeatedly with the Chiefs inability to cover small, quick receivers because they lack the corners with the same quick, click-and-close ability to match up. Williams was a small man left on a big island at Purdue, and he was one of the Big 10's best cover corners. Williams is anything but afraid to put a hit on a man, breaks on the ball extremely well, plays the ball in the air well, and lands his blitzes. If it weren't for Williams size (might be closer to 5'8"), he'd be a lock for the top three rounds. Williams has added value as a very solid punt returner, and I've been vocal that never seeing Frankie Hammond back there again would be outstanding.

Roster
QB Alex Smith
QB Tyler Bray
QB Aaron Murray

RB Jamaal Charles
RB Charcandrick West (ERFA)
RB Spencer Ware
RB De'Anthony Thomas
RB Knile Davis
RB Darrin Reaves (PS-FUTURE)

FB Anthony Sherman

TE Travis Kelce
TE James O'Shaughnessy
TE Brian Parker
TE Demetrius Harris (RE-SIGNED)
TE Ross Travis (PS-FUTURE)

WR Jeremy Maclin
WR Will Fuller (DRAFT RD 1)
WR Albert Wilson
WR Chris Conley
WR Malcolm Mitchell (DRAFT RD 5)
WR Da'Ron Brown (PS-FUTURE)
WR Fred Williams (PS-FUTURE)
WR Frankie Hammond

OT Eric Fisher
OT Jah Reid (RE-SIGNED)
OT Tyler Johnstone (DRAFT RD 5)
OT Curtis Feigt
OT Reid Fragel (PS-FUTURE)
OT Laurence Gibson (PS-FUTURE)

OG Ben Grubbs
OG Jeff Allen (UFA)
OG Sebastian Tretola (DRAFT RD 3)
OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff
OG Paul Fanaika
OG Jerrod Pughsley
OG Michael Liedtke (PS-FUTURE)

OC Mitch Morse
OC Zach Fulton
OC Daniel Munyer (PS-FUTURE)

DL Allen Bailey
DL Jaye Howard (UFA)
DL Nicholas Williams (ERFA)
DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches
DL David King (ERFA)
DL Alameda Ta'amu (FUTURE)
DL Jimmy Staten (PS-FUTURE)
DL Dontari Poe

OLB Justin Houston
OLB Dee Ford
OLB Tamba Hali (UFA-VOID)
OLB Ian Seau (DRAFT RD 4)
OLB Frank Zombo (UFA)

ILB Derrick Johnson (UFA)
ILB Josh Mauga
ILB Justin March
ILB Ramik Wilson
ILB DJ Alexander
ILB Tyrell Adams (PS-FUTURE)

CB Marcus Peters
CB Artie Burns (DRAFT RD 2)
CB Phillip Gaines
CB Steven Nelson
CB Frankie Williams (DRAFT RD 7)
CB Marcus Cooper

SS Eric Berry (UFA)
SS Daniel Sorensen (ERFA)
FS Ron Parker
FS Tyvon Branch (UFA)
FS Deon Bush (DRAFT RD 6)

P Dustin Colquitt
K Cairo Santos
LS James Winchester

[Calichief 3,016]

Branch over Abdullah is crazy. IMO

[SEMO 6,811]

Howard will get more.

 

And, why do people keep mocking WRs in the 1st round? Dorsey is not going to use a first on a receiver when he knows he can find value later in the draft. He just doesn't value the position enough to use a 1st on it.

[West 6,714]

i like it Crow...

 

Love Tretola in Rd 3.

 

fun stuff and comprehensive to the nth degree.

 

w

[ATLchief 3,126]

You da man, Crow.

 

Solid, as usual.

[eraser 722]

I don't believe that will be enough money for Jaye Howard. He will hit the FA market, and get much more $. 

[Guest Tomahawkchop]

I think Hussain has more value than Branch and should take precedence if the Chiefs can afford him.

 

Howard is a must resign if the Chiefs can afford him.  

 

I think Hali needs to walk.  I love the guy, but his knee kept him from practicing the last several weeks and is a chronic problem that is only going to get worse.  His production will continue to drop and Dee Ford's first round draft selection and play late in the season warrants his opportunity to start.

 

Knile Davis is gone.  Was already in Reid's doghouse and the fumble after halftime and bobbled kick-return were the proverbial nails in his coffin.

 

DAT may be done as well, but time will tell.  

 

Very solid draft board, Crow.  As usual...

[DieHard 2,061]

Love the DJ and Howard signings. They will likely make more though. Branch, Berry and Abdullah is tough choice. For equal money, Abdullah over Branch. I think Berry may be out of our price range. 2 of the 3 would make me a very happy man.

[jetlord 10,209]

Nice work, Crow.  Do you think DAT might be gone?  If so, the Chiefs need a kick/punt returner as well as an Edelman type receiver.  With Maclin and Conley along with Wilson they may have time to develop a #2/#3 without using the first round pick for one.  What do you think of Coleman from Baylor as a first round WR.  Also, Burns may be available in the third round and if so, it might be better to grab OG Alexander from LSU in the second and then hope for Burns in the third.  Unless the Chiefs really think Ramik Wilson is the answer at ILB, maybe they should look at Wright from AZ in the fourth.  BTW, I think Conley could be a good complement to Maclin.  We've seen a number of players take a little time to become productive and he might fit that mold.

[kccrow 529]

I haven't put alot of thought into who might be cut just yet. I've focused more on who the Chiefs might add and retain. Guys like Davis, Fanaika, DAT, Hammond, Cooper, and so forth that I think should be cut, likely will not be cut until training camp cut downs, if at all. It largely depends on who steps up and what they add. There aren't too many of these guys that will provide enough in cap relief to justify cutting them without a clear-cut replacement. The only player that makes sense to get rid of purely from a cap standpoint is Jamaal Charles, and that won't go over well with the masses.

 

Everything I've heard about Artie Burns hovers between "won't make it out of round 2" and "second day lock."   He needs some coaching up, Miami has terrible DB coaching, but he has an extremely sought after skill set and could be moulded into a solid player. He actually reminds me a shit ton of Sean Smith, except he's more athletic and catches the ball better.

 

On Scooby Wright, I've seen alot of people throw out Round 3 and Round 4, even draft boards listing him in the late round 3 range. I just don't see that being probable. This kid has insane ability on the football field. Yeah, he missed some time with an injury, but he's a 2nd round pick in my book. He's every bit as talented as the highly touted Jaylon Smith, and people still think Smith will go 1st round despite the fact that he may not play at all in 2016. It just so happens Wright is better as a pass rusher, and Smith is better as a coverage linebacker. For 3-4, you need one of each on the inside, and in a 4-3 you need a strong side linebacker. Wright will have his value, so I just don't see him sliding to the 4th round, nor anywhere near it. Alot will come from the combine medical evaluations.

 

On Jaye Howard, there are two camps of people on his value. There is one set that thinks he'll somehow get more than 6 million per, and those that think he won't. Don't get me wrong, Jaye Howard is valuable to the Chiefs, but I wouldn't spend a dime over what I've outlined here for him. If he wants more, well then "don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out" would be my philosophy. He's got one season of good solid production, and has shown an identical level of production to what Allen Bailey had when he got his contract. To think that Howard is worth more than Bailey by a wide mile is ridiculous to me. Sure, Howard can slide over and play nose in a pinch, but that doesn't make him a player worth spending 10 million per on. And, let's keep that number in mind of 10-12 million per, because you're likely going to be paying that to Poe next season. The answer is no, I wouldn't consider a Derek Wolfe or Mike Daniels contract for Jaye Howard. Howard hasn't shown me the consistent pass rush ability those players have, nor Bailey for that matter, and he simply makes quite a few mistakes, especially penalties. This is a great draft to replace Howard if he doesn't sign for a reasonable deal.

 

Now lets talk about the "Packers way" and John Dorsey not drafting a receiver at 28. Jordy Nelson was selected at 36, only 8 spots later. Sure, the packers have taken alot of 2nd round receivers (Cobb at 64, Adams at 53, Greg Jennings at 52, and Nelson) and 3rd round receivers (James Jones, Ty Montgomery, Antonio Freeman, Robert Brooks, etc). They've also spent high picks during their Super Bowl years though as Dorsey was coming up. Sterling Sharpe was picked 7th (1988) and Javon Walker was picked 20th (2002). Andy Reid spent high picks on receivers while in Philly. Why do we say there is "No way" Dorsey will take a receiver in round 1? It simply makes no sense. Maybe he won't, but definitely won't is not necessarily true. Also, Conley isn't the end of the line for adding receivers. You need at least 3 very solid receivers in the NFL. The Chiefs have 1 solid receiver in Maclin, Conley looks to be on the right path but not beating out Wilson for the #2 by mid year is very concerning to me, and I'd probably consider Wilson solid enough to be a #4 on most rosters. There are some positions where Dorsey won't be able to dumpster dive forever, and the playoff loss showed that receiver and offensive line are two of them. The Chiefs might not take a WR round 1, but I'm far from discounting it at this point. 

[jetlord 10,209]

Thanks for the good response.  My feeling is that if the Chiefs could get another CB like Peters in the first round, they could drop a very expensive Sean Smith.  Failing that, then maybe go with Coleman in the first to complement Maclin, Conley, and Wilson.  What's the history of first year CBs starting in the NFL?  Flowers and Carr did it, IIRC.  Would you like Alexander, OG, in the second?  It will be interesting to see what the Chiefs do on their line, but I'd expect a second day draft pick to be a part of the plan.  How about Young, Auburn, as a fifth rounder to compete for a line spot as a backup?   Is there a Lockett type out there the Chiefs could grab for a returner and Welket/Edelman role?

[DieHard 2,061]

I usually say O line in round 1, and we needed it last year. But if there is a pick like Peters sitting there, I don't care what position it is. A play maker is a play maker. If it's WR or CB, great.

[jetlord 10,209]

I usually say O line in round 1, and we needed it last year. But if there is a pick like Peters sitting there, I don't care what position it is. A play maker is a play maker. If it's WR or CB, great.

Here's another draft theory.  The drop off between round 1 and 2 for linemen is less than the drop off for skilled players.  Each situation is different and there's always a few at every position that are pretty much "can't miss" prospects whether linemen or skilled.  But if the Chiefs draft around 27, they might better invest in a CB or WR and get o-line day two.  The super OT will be gone by the time the Chiefs pick in round one.  Of course, each year and draft class is different, but taking away the top twenty picks, there is probably less risk in waiting for the second round to grab an OG.  Does anyone have stats for starting o-line players and which round they were drafted?

[kccrow 529]

I think I posted this last year, but here's a chart I had found a year or two ago on "success rate" by position by round...

 

OL 1: 83% 2: 70% 3: 40% 4: 29% 5: 16% 6: 16% 7: 9%

LB 1: 70% 2: 55% 3: 34% 4: 16% 5: 4% 6: 5% 7: 2%

TE 1: 67% 2: 50% 3: 39% 4: 33% 5: 32% 6: 26% 7: 0%

DB 1: 64% 2: 46% 3: 24% 4: 11% 5: 17% 6: 8% 7: 11%

QB 1: 63% 2: 27% 3: 17% 4: 8% 5: 0% 6: 0% 7: 6%

WR 1: 58% 2: 49% 3: 25% 4: 12% 5: 16% 6: 9% 7: 5%

RB 1: 58% 2: 25% 3: 16% 4: 11% 5: 9% 6: 6% 7: 0%

DL 1: 58% 2: 26% 3: 27% 4: 37% 5: 13 6: 13% 7: 3%