Chiefs have kept open communication with Howar

[PhataLerror 370]

Lunacy

Everyone is talking about how Poe compares to Howard when what everyone ought to be talking about is value and scheme fit. While elite nose tackles are hard to find, functional nose tackles are drafted late with great frequency. Nose tackles are the runningbacks of the defense: They rack up mileage quickly, and they can often be easily replaced. Why pay a premium for a position with a high supply of prospective players?

 

Howard has versatility, one thing Poe doesn't have.

[kccrow 529]

Everyone is talking about how Poe compares to Howard when what everyone ought to be talking about is value and scheme fit. While elite nose tackles are hard to find, functional nose tackles are drafted late with great frequency. Nose tackles are the runningbacks of the defense: They rack up mileage quickly, and they can often be easily replaced. Why pay a premium for a position with a high supply of prospective players?

 

Howard has versatility, one thing Poe doesn't have.

 

 

I completely, 100%, disagree. I think Poe would be a much better player than Howard at DE based on sheer athleticism and strength and I don't doubt DE would actually be his best position if he was ever moved there. He has better athleticism and strength than Haloti Ngata ever had and look what Ngata did with the Ravens. Poe is putting up Ngata's stats from the nose. Poe is an absolutely phenomenal NT. Poe is a Vince Wilfork NT, not just some average guy at the position. You pay for Poe because he's the best goddamned NT in the NFL, and could end up being the best ever, and you run a 3-4 defense that relies on NT play to free up your MLBs to make plays. Howard isn't anywhere near the player Poe is. It's not even fucking close.

[PhataLerror 370]

Everyone is talking about how Poe compares to Howard....

I completely, 100%, disagree. I think Poe would be a much better player than Howard at DE....

As I said, there's no comparing the two between each other. Poe is the better defensive lineman.

 

Your example of Haloti Ngata actually proves my point. For one thing, he was good because the other ten players behind him were all good. Offenses had their hands full with everyone else and didn't always have offensive players available to be constantly double- or triple-teaming Ngata. The Chiefs' defense is not that Ravens defense. One more thing: The Ravens let Haloti Ngata go. Ngata plays for the Bears now. There was a predictable drop-off in production.

[kccrow 529]

As I said, there's no comparing the two between each other. Poe is the better defensive lineman.

 

Your example of Haloti Ngata actually proves my point. For one thing, he was good because the other ten players behind him were all good. Offenses had their hands full with everyone else and didn't always have offensive players available to be constantly double- or triple-teaming Ngata. The Chiefs' defense is not that Ravens defense. One more thing: The Ravens let Haloti Ngata go. Ngata plays for the Bears now. There was a predictable drop-off in production.

 

 

What is your point exactly? Please clarify that. Only thing I take is that we should sign Howard and let Poe walk because Howard is supposedly more versatile.

 

Oh really? Ngata ate double-teams for breakfast to free up guys to make plays.

 

The Chiefs don't compare? Wow. All-pro safety. Check. All-Pro ILB. Check. All-Pro Edge Rushers. Check. Big fucker that can move on the front line and eat double-teams. Check. Good CBs. Check.

 

Yeah Ngata declined at 30 years old because he was getting old and got injured. Poe is 25.

 

Some times I really understand and agree with you and sometimes I don't. Right now, I'm feeling the latter.

[Bilyous2 884]

Everyone is talking about how Poe compares to Howard when what everyone ought to be talking about is value and scheme fit. While elite nose tackles are hard to find, functional nose tackles are drafted late with great frequency. Nose tackles are the runningbacks of the defense: They rack up mileage quickly, and they can often be easily replaced. Why pay a premium for a position with a high supply of prospective players?

 

To answer your question:  Because he is only 25, consistently occupies two blockers while still collapsing the pocket back in the QB's face to where he cannot step up, because he is huge yet has freakish movement and speed, because he is just reaching his peak., and because offensive lines live more in fear of protecting the QB than in run blocking, making the Chiefs incredibly effective against the run.  How are those reasons?  How many 100 yd RB's were there against us last year?  How did DJ get so many tackles? How did we stop teams in goal line situations so well?

 

If Poe were to be gone as a result of foolish thinking, which Dorsey would never do, there are certain people who post here who would be screaming about why the defense dropped off so badly next year.

 

I agree with all the other responses to this hairbrained suggestion. 

[PhataLerror 370]

What is your point exactly? Please clarify that. Only thing I take is that we should sign Howard and let Poe walk because Howard is supposedly more versatile.

 

Oh really? Ngata ate double-teams for breakfast to free up guys to make plays.

 

The Chiefs don't compare? Wow. All-pro safety. Check. All-Pro ILB. Check. All-Pro Edge Rushers. Check. Big *** that can move on the front line and eat double-teams. Check. Good CBs. Check.

Derrick Johnson is not Ray Lewis. Eric Berry is not Ed Reed. The only Chiefs player that is arguably better than his Ravens counterpart (and then, not by much) is Justin Houston over Terrell Suggs. In the post-season leading up to the Ravens' most recent Super Bowl win, their defense allowed 21 points against the Broncos over 12 drives (while forcing 3 turnovers and producing a touchdown), 13 points against the Patriots over 12 drives (while again forcing 3 turnovers), and 6 points against the 49ers over 7 drives (along with 2 forced turnovers, before a power outage turned the game on its ear). The Ravens' worst defensive performance that season was not at all bad, while words like "horrible" can be used to characterize the Chiefs' defensive performances in certain games.

 

Player for player, and production for production, the Kansas City defense is not within two tiers of the mid-2000's and early 2010's Ravens teams. Of course, I understand that part of this is a consequence of incompetent defensive coordinating (the Chiefs did in fact have much of the talent the Ravens had, even if not all of it), but the Chiefs' defense is just that, the Chiefs'. Will the Chiefs be able to leverage Poe's ability as a nose tackle if they can't afford replacement level talent at other positions because Poe's going to be paid as an elite nose tackle? No.

 

As you'll see in other threads, I am a proponent of not bringing in best-in-the-league players because the salary cap pressures presented in such situations dilute the overall talent of the team. You have to be able to field eleven starter-quality players on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are already struggling to do that. You can only shade so much help toward inferior players before you completely negate the tactical advantages of having a best-in-the-league player. Adding another rich contract will only worsen that problem.

 

I'm a proponent of keeping Howard over Poe only because I expect the cost of his free agent contract will be closer to his actual value than will be the case with Poe's next contract. The Chiefs can no longer afford best-in-the-league players, and need to make these sorts of value signings. If Howard's value suddenly spikes in free agency, the Chiefs should let him walk and take the compensatory draft pick in return. After all, if Poe is replaceable, Howard is that much more so.

[PhataLerror 370]

To answer your question:  Because he is only 25, consistently occupies two blockers while still collapsing the pocket back in the QB's face to where he cannot step up, because he is huge yet has freakish movement and speed, because he is just reaching his peak., and because offensive lines live more in fear of protecting the QB than in run blocking, making the Chiefs incredibly effective against the run.  How are those reasons?  How many 100 yd RB's were there against us last year?  How did DJ get so many tackles? How did we stop teams in goal line situations so well?

 

If Poe were to be gone as a result of foolish thinking, which Dorsey would never do, there are certain people who post here who would be screaming about why the defense dropped off so badly next year.

 

I agree with all the other responses to this hairbrained suggestion. 

For what the Chiefs paid to keep Justin Houston, coming into 2016 the Chiefs will be able to afford only one or two of Sean Smith, Eric Berry, Derrick Johnson, Jaye Howard, Husain Abdullah, and Tamba Hali. The Chiefs are facing a tremendous dilution of talent on defense unless they get unexpected production from the defensive players that were backups in 2015. Who else will leave in a few seasons so that Dontari Poe will be able to stay? Marcus Peters and Allen Bailey? Eric Fisher and Dee Ford?

 

Poe is one of the best nose tackles in the league, and I've never said anything to the contrary. The problem is that the Chiefs are already on the hook for three $10 million-plus contracts in 2016, and their top-seven players consume almost half of their total salary cap. They have all of the foundation players they can afford, and are running out of money for the framing, sheetrock, insulation, and stucco. They'll need a roof, too.

[Bilyous2 884]

Derrick Johnson is not Ray Lewis. Eric Berry is not Ed Reed. The only Chiefs player that is arguably better than his Ravens counterpart (and then, not by much) is Justin Houston over Terrell Suggs. In the post-season leading up to the Ravens' most recent Super Bowl win, their defense allowed 21 points against the Broncos over 12 drives (while forcing 3 turnovers and producing a touchdown), 13 points against the Patriots over 12 drives (while again forcing 3 turnovers), and 6 points against the 49ers over 7 drives (along with 2 forced turnovers, before a power outage turned the game on its ear). The Ravens' worst defensive performance that season was not at all bad, while words like "horrible" can be used to characterize the Chiefs' defensive performances in certain games.

 

Player for player, and production for production, the Kansas City defense is not within two tiers of the mid-2000's and early 2010's Ravens teams. Of course, I understand that part of this is a consequence of incompetent defensive coordinating (the Chiefs did in fact have much of the talent the Ravens had, even if not all of it), but the Chiefs' defense is just that, the Chiefs'. Will the Chiefs be able to leverage Poe's ability as a nose tackle if they can't afford replacement level talent at other positions because Poe's going to be paid as an elite nose tackle? No.

 

As you'll see in other threads, I am a proponent of not bringing in best-in-the-league players because the salary cap pressures presented in such situations dilute the overall talent of the team. You have to be able to field eleven starter-quality players on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are already struggling to do that. You can only shade so much help toward inferior players before you completely negate the tactical advantages of having a best-in-the-league player. Adding another rich contract will only worsen that problem.

 

I'm a proponent of keeping Howard over Poe only because I expect the cost of his free agent contract will be closer to his actual value than will be the case with Poe's next contract. The Chiefs can no longer afford best-in-the-league players, and need to make these sorts of value signings. If Howard's value suddenly spikes in free agency, the Chiefs should let him walk and take the compensatory draft pick in return. After all, if Poe is replaceable, Howard is that much more so.

That's good reasoning, Phatal. The reason I still strongly disagree is that there are leaders on teams.  They are veterans who teach and inspire in a locker room and are essential to the chemistry and esprit of a team.  This is the reason the Chiefs won 11 straight games and a major reason the Royals won the world series.  Your theory or approach completely discounts the gigantic value of that component.

[Bilyous2 884]

For what the Chiefs paid to keep Justin Houston, coming into 2016 the Chiefs will be able to afford only one or two of Sean Smith, Eric Berry, Derrick Johnson, Jaye Howard, Husain Abdullah, and Tamba Hali. The Chiefs are facing a tremendous dilution of talent on defense unless they get unexpected production from the defensive players that were backups in 2015. Who else will leave in a few seasons so that Dontari Poe will be able to stay? Marcus Peters and Allen Bailey? Eric Fisher and Dee Ford?

 

Poe is one of the best nose tackles in the league, and I've never said anything to the contrary. The problem is that the Chiefs are already on the hook for three $10 million-plus contracts in 2016, and their top-seven players consume almost half of their total salary cap. They have all of the foundation players they can afford, and are running out of money for the framing, sheetrock, insulation, and stucco. They'll need a roof, too.

So, you advocate getting rid of a 25 year old foundation player instead of a 32 year old like DJ?  Not on your life.  And yes, Dorsey has built a deep team with great backups waiting in the wings.  Look at the pre-season record and the way our backups dominated other team's backups.  Look at how we weathered injuries and had strong players to be the "next man up."  That's how you do it. The money game is essential, but the cheapest players are those in their first contract or maybe their second.  You don't let a 25 year old dominant player get away.  Period.

[azchief21 5,278]

How do the Donkeys keep Manning, Thomas, Miller then go out and get Ware, Talib, Ward and Sanders while reaching the SB 2 out of 3 years? We are talking about getting rid of extremely talented, young players and hoping backups are good enough to save a buck? Let's do whatever they're doing.

[PhataLerror 370]

So, you advocate getting rid of a 25 year old foundation player instead of a 32 year old like DJ?  Not on your life.  And yes, Dorsey has built a deep team with great backups waiting in the wings.  Look at the pre-season record and the way our backups dominated other team's backups.  Look at how we weathered injuries and had strong players to be the "next man up."  That's how you do it. The money game is essential, but the cheapest players are those in their first contract or maybe their second.  You don't let a 25 year old dominant player get away.  Period.

How many players do the Chiefs have that you could call dominant players at the age of 25 or younger?

 

You just can't keep them all and remain competitive. You'll have to pick and choose which players are worth extending. That will be determined by value. When the value added per dollar spent at the nose tackle position suggests that it's better to draft for replacements than to sign free agents, it seems that the practical place to save money would be at the position that happens to be manned by Dontari Poe. I hate letting go of dominant talent, and if they bring intangibles, it's that much more difficult.

 

I also hate seeing teams that are merely a few superstars surrounded by scrubs. You can't win with that when you have to have 11 on the field on each side of the ball.

[kccrow 529]

I pick keeping Poe at an extra 2 million per season over what Howard will get and letting Howard walk.

 

I pick not keeping a Punter at over 4 million a season.

 

I pick not keeping a Running Back at over 6 million a season.

 

I pick not paying crap fucking lineman over 3 million a year to produce shit. Looking squarely at Fanaika, Grubbs, and Reid at this point.

 

You want to talk about dime-a-dozen players, lets start talking.

 

I could draft 3 punters this year that could adequately replace Dustin Colquitt and save over 3 million against the cap.

 

I could draft 15 running backs this year to more than adequately replace Jamaal Charles and save 5 million against the cap.

 

I could draft just about any fucking lineman I wanted to in the top 4 rounds to adequately replace the shit show on the offensive line.

 

You want to talk about skimming the fat, start in the places that will give you good bang for your buck instead of ripping away young, generational talents. By the time those guys get paid, you are drafting a rookies to replace in other areas.

[SEMO 6,811]

Don't agree at all about Colquitt. As long as AR and Phatal's hero is here, you are going to see the offense stalling a lot. Colquitt's ability to consistantly pin the other team deep is a must.

[PhataLerror 370]

Don't agree at all about Colquitt. As long as AR and Phatal's hero is here, you are going to see the offense stalling a lot. Colquitt's ability to consistantly pin the other team deep is a must.

So that the defense can give up 98-yard touchdown drives when they spend only 20 minutes in a game on non-kneel down plays? Yeah, that's a wise use of $4 million.

 

It's a shame that you take all I've been right about with regard to this year and reduce it to "PhataLerror is the Alex Smith fan".

[PhataLerror 370]

You want to talk about dime-a-dozen players, lets start talking.

 

I could draft 3 punters this year that could adequately replace Dustin Colquitt and save over 3 million against the cap.

 

I could draft 15 running backs this year to more than adequately replace Jamaal Charles and save 5 million against the cap.

 

I could draft just about any *** lineman I wanted to in the top 4 rounds to adequately replace the *** show on the offensive line.

 

You want to talk about skimming the fat, start in the places that will give you good bang for your buck instead of ripping away young, generational talents. By the time those guys get paid, you are drafting a rookies to replace in other areas.

If the Chiefs were going into this draft with 20 selections evenly distributed among the draft's seven rounds, I could unequivocally stand by what you said. Otherwise, there just aren't enough draft picks to put together the squad you are looking for.

 

I was against the Jamaal Charles holdout while a lot of Kansas City fans were screaming 'pay the man'. What happened? The Chiefs got their first playoff win in two decades without him. Why? Because teams win games, not runningbacks. The same applies to any position, including quarterback. The Chiefs don't overpay Smith for what he does with what he has, so I don't gripe about him the way others do.

[SEMO 6,811]

So that the defense can give up 98-yard touchdown drives when they spend only 20 minutes in a game on non-kneel down plays? Yeah, that's a wise use of $4 million.

 

It's a shame that you take all I've been right about with regard to this year and reduce it to "PhataLerror is the Alex Smith fan".

Need a tissue?

 

How many 98 yard drives did the D give up this year?

[PhataLerror 370]

Need a tissue?

 

How many 98 yard drives did the D give up this year?

They were 0-for-1 on 98-yard stops in Games That Mattered.

 

Is there a correlation between punts inside the 20 and games won, or punts inside the 20 and defensive points allowed?

 

You don't want to punt. If you're not paying your punter 3% of your team's cap number, you can afford to pay for offensive players that will produce scores and keep his replacement off of the field entirely.

[Bilyous2 884]

Don't agree at all about Colquitt. As long as AR and Phatal's hero is here, you are going to see the offense stalling a lot. Colquitt's ability to consistantly pin the other team deep is a must.

Me either.  ST's have been our biggest strength, and a lot of that has been Colquitt's ability to kick a back spin on the ball and landing it near the goal line and having it bounce back away from the goal line or putting it out of bounds just before it reaches the goal line. He is largely responsible for the field position that has kept us in ballgames time after time.  He is a wizard, a jewel. He has made it into an art form.  There are 31 GM's who would give their right testicle to land him and pay him.   There isn't anyone like him. He worth his salary and then some.  Anyone who says to let him walk needs a psychiatrist or some meds.

[PhataLerror 370]

Me either.  ST's have been our biggest strength, and a lot of that has been Colquitt's ability to kick a back spin on the ball and landing it near the goal line and having it bounce back away from the goal line or putting it out of bounds just before it reaches the goal line. He is largely responsible for the field position that has kept us in ballgames time after time.  He is a wizard, a jewel. He has made it into an art form.  There are 31 GM's who would give their right testicle to land him and pay him.   There isn't anyone like him. He worth his salary and then some.  Anyone who says to let him walk needs a psychiatrist or some meds.

No wonder the Chiefs haven't been able to field a complete offense: They're paying for one of the league's best pass-rushing linebackers, one of the league's best run-stopping safeties, one of the league's best nose tackles, and one of the league's best... punters?

 

Again, if your offense isn't working on a shoestring budget, the punter doesn't need to be on the field on the first place.

[Bilyous2 884]

I pick keeping Poe at an extra 2 million per season over what Howard will get and letting Howard walk.

 

I pick not keeping a Punter at over 4 million a season.

 

I pick not keeping a Running Back at over 6 million a season.

 

I pick not paying crap fucking lineman over 3 million a year to produce shit. Looking squarely at Fanaika, Grubbs, and Reid at this point.

 

You want to talk about dime-a-dozen players, lets start talking.

 

I could draft 3 punters this year that could adequately replace Dustin Colquitt and save over 3 million against the cap.

 

I could draft 15 running backs this year to more than adequately replace Jamaal Charles and save 5 million against the cap.

 

I could draft just about any fucking lineman I wanted to in the top 4 rounds to adequately replace the shit show on the offensive line.

 

You want to talk about skimming the fat, start in the places that will give you good bang for your buck instead of ripping away young, generational talents. By the time those guys get paid, you are drafting a rookies to replace in other areas.

Yes.  Fanaika, Grubbs, and Reid. Be gone, ye worthless tripe!  I would change the language, though, to "fucking UP linemen."  I don't know how much actual fucking they do. My only reservations about letting them go is that it takes about three years for a drafted O-lineman to learn all the blocking techniques and tricks to make them decent.  With the Chiefs close to a Superbowl appearance, we need to sign some better veteran free agents  for the O-line than those three - older guys with experience, even if they are only mediocre.  Dorsey tried exactly that with those guys and failed, but his idea was correct. Trying to draft O-linemen and get them ready right away is a pipe dream.  With a terrible cap situation, we need to mostly train the best guys who already are backups with the team but who have a training camp or two under their belts and quite a few snaps and let them emerge this coming season.  A single good older O-lineman as a free agent would be the best approach for one position at least.  I also think that either Morse or Fulton would be the best guard candidate.  This would be almost Fulton's time to emerge.  He was already a lot better and will be better still this coming year.

[kccrow 529]

There are plenty of punters in the NFL right now that are as good as Dustin Colquitt. Folks, stop being delusional that he is the best at everything. Is he a top 5 punter in this league right now? He is in the grand scheme of all that he does well. Chris Jones (DAL), Marquette King (OAK). Pat O'Donnell (CHI), Donnie Jones (PHI), and so forth are very good punters.

 

Here's how Dustin rates in the NFL in 2015 (These ratings based on the 32 punters with more than 50 punts):

 

Average: 23rd

Net: 8th

In 20: 3rd

Touchbacks: 17th (tied)

Fair catch: 10th

Return average: 8th

Percent of Punts Returned: 2nd

 

 

Would I spend a 5th on Texas A&M's Drew Kaser to save my football team 3.5 million against the cap, and also get very good production at the position at that low cost for the next 4 years? Damn straight.

 

Would I spend a 4th round pick on a RB like Florida's Kelvin Taylor to add to Ware and West and chip 6 million off the cap? Damn straight I would. I like Jamaal, but I'm not married to a single player on this team. I saw this team operate very effectively without him. I'd argue that the Chiefs were a much better offensive team without Jamaal.

 

If I can spend two mid round picks at positions that produce from mid-round picks, rather than taking fliers on other positions, and at the same time allow my team to sign a more premium player like a Jaye Howard, a Dontari Poe, an Eric Berry, or a Sean Smith, then you bet your ass I'd do it.

 

A team doesn't need 20 draft picks. I'd argue that spending a 4th and 5th on RB and P  and re-signing a guy like Jaye Howard is a much better play for the long-term than keeping Jamaal and Dustin.

[kccrow 529]

YA single good older O-lineman as a free agent would be the best approach for one position at least.

 

This is one of the biggest reasons I changed my approach to the offseason and hope the Chiefs go after Mitchell Schwartz hard. He's entering his prime and is the best right tackle in the NFL. Its an instantaneous upgrade and allows the Chiefs to let some guys focus more on playing the interior, especially Jah Reid who looked much better at guard than at tackle.

[PhataLerror 370]

A team doesn't need 20 draft picks. I'd argue that spending a 4th and 5th on RB and P  and re-signing a guy like Jaye Howard is a much better play for the long-term than keeping Jamaal and Dustin.

I just realized that I misread your post earlier. You're right, you don't need 20 draft picks to draft one runningback and one punter.

 

For some reason, I thought you were suggesting that the Chiefs needed to throw all of their darts at three position groups.

 

My only worry about Jaye Howard is the same worry I had about Justin Houston: Is he as good as he appeared to be, or was the defensive scheme and supporting cast making him look better than he actually is.

[DieHard 2,061]

They were 0-for-1 on 98-yard stops in Games That Mattered.

 

Is there a correlation between punts inside the 20 and games won, or punts inside the 20 and defensive points allowed?

 

You don't want to punt. If you're not paying your punter 3% of your team's cap number, you can afford to pay for offensive players that will produce scores and keep his replacement off of the field entirely.

The Houston game didn't matter?

[kccrow 529]

For the people that think # of punts inside the 20 matter with regard to defensive performance, throw it out the window. Does it correlate to Wins? No. In fact, Punting really doesn't correlate to anything statistically in terms of overall team performance except for that the teams that tend to punt more also tend to have the worst records (imagine that). See the stats for punting inside the 20 versus w/l and defensive rank in the "punting in 20" pdf attached. Also included punting for net yards versus w/l and defensive rank in the "punting net" pdf.

punting in 20.pdf

punting net.pdf