Offseason Plan 5.0 - UPDATED

[kccrow 529]

For those of you that haven't already seen it...

 

Unrestricted Free Agents

ERIC BERRY, SS/FS (KC) - Berry may feel inclined to sign with the Chiefs given how they treated him in dealing with his cancer, but he's still one of the premier safeties in the league and will expect to be paid as such. I have Berry on the books for a Devin McCourty-like deal. Contract structure is 5 years, $48 million, with a $15 million signing bonus and $22.5 million in total guarantees (1st and 2nd year salaries). Cap hits are $6.5, 8.0, 10.0, 11.0, and 12.5 million.

MITCHELL SCHWARTZ, RT (CLE) - Scwhartz has quietly become one of the premier right tackles in the NFL and is the lone splash I have the Chiefs making in the market. Dorsey has shown he's willing to sign or trade for lineman and pay them fairly well. I have the Chiefs making Schwartz the highest paid RT (depending on how you view the future of Lane Johnson) in the NFL to get him here and fix their biggest hole on the front line. Contract structure is in line with what Bryan Bulaga received from the Packers at 5 years, $34 million, with an $8 million signing bonus and $9.25 in total guarantees (1st year salary). Cap hits are $3.6, 5.6, 7.5, 8.6, and 8.7 million.

DERRICK JOHNSON, ILB (KC) - Johnson should sign a deal similar in nature to Darryl Smith of Baltimore and within the Chiefs' cap restrictions as he won't likely see a big offer at his age if he leaves. I have Johnson at 2 years, $7.5 million, with a $2 million signing bonus and cap hits of $3.5 and $4.0 million.

NOLAN CARROLL, CB (PHI) - Nolan Carroll stepped up for the Eagles this past season as a starter and was playing extremely well before a broken ankle ended his season after 11 weeks. Carroll is a long, thick corner at 6'1" 205 with great speed (4.43), and plays similarly to Sean Smith. Carroll just turned 29, so he isn't a long-term type of guy, but he can be a great stand-in while the Chiefs develop their youth and is an insurance policy in the event Gaines isn't back at 100% to play the outside. Carroll should receive a contract similar to what Greg Toler received from Indianapolis. I have the contract structure at 3 years, $15 million, with a $3 million signign bonus and $6.5 million in total guarantees (1st year salary). Cap hits are $4.5, 5.0, and 5.5 million.

TAMBA HALI, OLB (KC) - Hali essentially played for 6 million (5 million bonus) last year but the Chiefs cap hit was a modest 2 million for the current portion of the deal (870,000 salary, 1 million signing bonus for reworking his deal, and 130,000 workout bonus) and a total cap hit just under 5 million in 2015. The 2016 vet minimum is $985,000 for players with 10 accrued seasons. I think Hali signs for that minimum and adds on a 1.515 million roster bonus to become fully guaranteed the first day of training camp, ending with a total cap hit of 3.5 million (includes the 1 million in bonus money prorated from last years deal). The Chiefs have 5 days after the Super Bowl before his contract voids and the 4 million in bonus money accelerates against this season's cap, so we'll likely know sooner than later what will happen with him.

SEAN WEATHERSPOON, ILB (ARI) - Weatherspoon was a very good linebacker on the verge of being one of the better one's in the league before he was injured during his contract year with Atlanta, missing 10 games. Weatherspoon signed a 1 year "prove it" deal with the Cardinals during the off-season, but ended up in Bruce Arians' dog house after he was nicked up with a hamstring injury for the bulk of the preseason and didn't see much of any regular season action. Weatherspoon went to college at Missouri, so going to the Chiefs could be something he considers if they can agree to terms. I have the Chiefs signing Weatherspoon to a Wesley Woodyard (TEN) type of deal, but as more of a "prove it" deal with more roster bonus money tied in as injury incentives ($500,000 in each of the first two seasons and $1,000,000 in each of the last two). I have the contract structure as 4 years, $16 million, with a $3 million signing bonus and $4 million in total guarantees (1st year salary). Cap hits of $2.25, 3.5, 4.75, and 5.5 million.

TYVON BRANCH, SS/FS/NB (KC) - Branch became an integral piece to Sutton's defense last season, so I expect he'll be a guy that the Chiefs will want to try to re-sign and he is younger than Husain Abdullah. I have Branch penciled in with a deal above Patrick Chung and in the top 40 range. Contract structure is 2 years, $5.4 million, with $1.6 million guarnteed and including $500,000 per year in game day incentives. Cap hits of $2.4 and 3.0 million.

MIKE DEVITO, DE (KC) - DeVito quietly had a really solid season for the Chiefs in a reserve role coming off his Achilles injury, and given he re-worked his contract to play for far less money last season, he could be a budget signing going into the end of his career. I have DeVito's contract structure in line with Chris Canty's (Baltimore) at 2 years, $4.885 million, with a $1.5 million signing bonus and including $500,000 in game day incentives. Cap hits of $1.885 and 3.0 million.

JASON AVANT, WR (KC) - Avant has been primarily a coach on the field during the week and limited contributor on Sunday's, but he's the kind of player Andy Reid will want to keep around as he continues to add more youth at the position. I have Avant signing for the vet minimum of $985,000 along with a $50,000 signing bonus and $30,000 in incentives which will give him a veteran discount cap hit of $680,000.

FRANK ZOMBO, OLB (KC) - Zombo is a core special teams player and solid part-time contributor on defense, so it only makes sense to re-sign him at the vet minimum of $760,000 with a $50,000 signing bonus and $30,000 in incentives, which will give him a veteran discount cap hit of $680,000.

Restricted Free Agents

CHARCANDRICK WEST, RB (KC) - West became a key piece to the Chiefs success in 2015 and they'll want him back. As an ERFA he has no choice but to sign for the vet minimum of $600,000.

DANIEL SORENSEN, SS (KC) - Sorensen was a key special teams player and part-time player in the secondary for the Chiefs. As an ERFA, he'll be back with no choice but to sign for the vet minimum of $600,000.

NICHOLAS WILLIAMS, DE (KC) - Williams is coming along as a 3-4 DE prospect for the Chiefs, having spent quite a bit of time on the active roster. He'll be back in 2016 and as an ERFA he'll sign for the vet minimum of $600,000.

DAVID KING, DE (KC) - Like Williams, King has also been a developmental DE for the Chiefs. He'll be back as well and as an ERFA he'll sign for the vet minimum of $600,000.

Let Walk

SEAN SMITH, CB
CHASE DANIEL, QB
HUSAIN ABDULLAH, FS
DONALD STEPHENSON, OT
JAYE HOWARD, DE
JAMELL FLEMING, CB
DEZMAN MOSES, OLB
JEFF ALLEN, OG/T

Estimated Cap Impact

Chiefs total $152,919,182. The estimated cap, announced at the owner's meeting, will be somewhere between $150.0 million and $153.4 million. My estimates are closer to the high end, and I expect $152 million. In any event, the Chiefs have an estimated rollover of $2.9 million. Using the low end cap figure with the rollover nets a cap of $152,951,340, leaving the Chiefs with total cap space of $32,158. Anything over $150 million, I'll consider space the Chiefs reserve to make in-season transactions. Cap hits for re-signings reflected and closely approximated (Kelce $2,948,226, Harris at $1,442,500, Reid at $1,825,000).

Draft Selections

1(028) WILL FULLER, WR (5'11" 185) Notre Dame
Lean with good muscle tone, good arm length, high cut with long legs. Solid lower body strength with sprinter traits and speed. Shows sudden burst, rapid stride, quick feet, lateral agility, and flexibility to elude and create in the open field. Quick-twitch athlete that can snap off routes. Explosive off the snap, closing cushions quickly and forcing defenders to play off the ball. Adjust his stride once hitting the second level to pull away from defenders deep, possessing excellent pure speed and might run in the 4.3's. Great vision as a runner, elusive. Relatively clean route runner. Finds soft spots and works to get open for his quarterback. Excellent hands, extends and plucks away from his frame. Incredible core flexibility and body control to contort his body adjusting to the football to make difficult catches. Slides to catch the ball within his frame, but can make acrobatic catches outside of his frame. Good field awareness and sideline awareness. Outstanding ability to track the deep ball. Patient setting up blocks on bubble screens.

2(059) ADOLPHUS WASHINGTON, DL (6'4" 297) Ohio State
Long player with good thickness throughout, good bubble. Washington shows excellent quickness at the snap, immediately eating up valuable space against offensive lineman. Displays a developed swim move and solid bull rush right away. Can make himself skinny and slide into lanes. Very disruptive player, allowing his teammates to feed off of him collapsing the pocket. Outstanding burst and closing speed to the ballcarrier. Takes good angles in pursuit. Will need to learn to use his hands better and needs to develop better play recognition. First round calibert talent that may fall due to insane depth along defensive line in this draft coupled with his recent arrest for soliciting a prostitute.

3(091) KAMALEI CORREA, DE (6'3" 245) Boise State
Correa is a compact player for the defensive end position but will fit in well as an outside or inside linebacker in a 3-4 defense in the NFL. Sports an explosive first step and excellent burst to get into defenders quickly. Maintains good balance and uses his hands extremely well to fight off lineman. Can jolt lineman backwards on initial contact. Excellent closing speed to the ball-carrier. Very good recovery speed and change of direction ability to make second effort plays. Great lateral quickness to make plays away from his area. Can get skinny and slip past blockers. Plays the run very well, especially for his size. An impact pass rusher. Sports the athletic ability to also make a move inside, similar to Jaime Collins in New England. Size, competition, and a deep draft along the defensive front may be the only reasons Correa may slip in this draft.

4(127) D.J. WHITE, CB (5'11" 189) Georgia Tech
White is a well built, athletic player with good musculature and strength for his size. Excellent press coverage. Good short area quickness and solid deep speed. Flexible athlete, exhibiting excellent body control to turn and play the football. Click and close defender against the run and hits with authority using textbook form. Fluid hips and quick feet in transition. Reads the quarterback and breaks on balls well. Experienced in press man and off man. High points on the ball and breaks up quite a few plays. Excellent field awareness to find ball-carriers away from his area. Hustle player. May struggle against larger receivers and top-flight speed.

5(162) SEAN DAVIS, FS (6'1" 201) Maryland
Davis sports an athletic frame with a good build for either cornerback or free safety. He has long arms, a well built upper body, and long legs. Davis is a very aggressive defender, which is a big reaosn he's excellent playing downhill with the action in front of him. Davis has very quick feet and excellent closing speed to come downhill and make tackles. Extremely explosive hitter. Plays the ball well in the air and generally gets his head turned to the football. Good leaping abilty. Ace special teams gunner. Has developed a knack for forcing turnovers. Experience at corner, which makes him a valuable every down defender. Doesn't exhibit good enough footwork and technique to immediately play the boundry, but doesn't appear to be limited athletically if a team wanted to put him there. High backpeddle and clunky transition at this point, common with long-legged players. Gets overally aggressive with his hands at times in pass coverage. Will be at his best as a free safety or nickle defender in the NFL.

5(167) TYLER JOHNSTONE, OT (6'6" 295) Oregon
Johnstone is a long, well-proportioned player with good thickness throughout but should add about 20 pounds in the pros. Looks to have long arms. Not too highly cut for his height. Sports excellent quickness off the snap either getting into the pads of defenders immediately or dropping into his solid kick slide. Generates decent pop into defenders with his hands, but needs to develop more upper body strength for the pros. Technically sound in most aspects. Keeps his hands inside on the defender. Generates solid movement drive blocking in the run game. Can adequately get up on second level blocks. Generally keeps his shoulders square on the perimeter and rides defenders around the pocket. Needs work on his power step to cut off inside moves. Needs to continue working on keeping square and keeping ready hands, sometimes allowing his arms to fall and letting defenders get leverage before having to recover. Must generate better foot movement after contact in the run game. Was looking to be a 1st round player before consecutive ACL injuries. May still be a 2nd day prospect depending on how teams feel about his time missed. Will require thorough medical evaluations.

6(208) JEFF DRISKEL, QB (6'4" 230) Louisiana Tech
Driskel has prototypical NFL size at the QB position with well-distributed weight. Pro-ready set-up and delivery of the football, giving him solid accuracy and good velocity on the ball. Shows good touch on fade/corner routes. Good trajectory and accuracy on deep balls. Needs better accuracy on lateral passes. Athletic with the ability to create plays with his legs. Good pocket awareness, climbs the pocket, protects the ball, moves around well, and scrambles to avoid defenders. Capable of progressing through reads. Like all rookie QBs, will need work on those read progressions. Primary concern is poor body of work at Florida followed by primary success coming from shotgun spread at lower level of competition. Shows developed pro traits and could be a late bloomer/steal prospect if he continues to put it all together.

7(249) HUNTER SHARP, WR (5'11" 199) Utah State
Sharp is a smaller receiver but has decent bulk and good overall musculature with longer legs and thick shoulders. Explosive off the line, accelerating quickly into routes, with a burst at the top that can leave defenders in his wake. Quick and fast athlete overall. Agile and shows some wiggle to create in the open field. Flexible athlete that adjusts well to the ball in the air. Good punt and kick returner. Extremely productive given the run heavy offense he played in. Decent open field blocker. Inconsistent hands, will drop some easy passes but will also make some spectacular ones. To his credit, terrible QB play with a duck one pass and one rifled in the next and rarely on target, in stride. Cousin to Derrick Johnson.

Offseason Roster
(Less any UDFAs/Lower Tier UFA pick-ups. * Denotes rookie)

QB: Alex Smith, Aaron Murray, Tyler Bray, Jeff Driskel*
RB: Jamaal Chalres, Spencer Ware, Charcandrick West, Knile Davis, De'Anthony Thomas, Darrin Reaves, Deveron Carr
FB: Anthony Sherman, Trey Millard
TE: Travis Kelce, James O'Shaughnessy, Demetrius Harris, Brian Parker Ross Travis
WR: Jeremy Maclin, Will Fuller*, Chris Conley, Albert Wilson, Jason Avant, Hunter Sharp*, Frankie Hammond, Da'Ron Brown, Fred Williams, Kenny Cook
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Jah Reid (OG), Tyler Johnstone*, Reid Fragel, Curtis Feigt, Laurence Gibson
OG: Ben Grubbs, Zach Fulton (OC), Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff, Paul Fanaika, Jarrod Pughsley (OT), Michael Liedtke
OC: Mitch Morse, Daniel Munyer
DE: Allen Bailey, Mike DeVito, Adolphus Washington*, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, David King, Niko Davis
DT: Dontari Poe, Nicholas Williams (DE), Alameda Ta'amu, Jimmy Staten
OLB: Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, Dee Ford, Kamalei Correa*, Frank Zombo, Cameron Gordon (ILB), Tyrell Adams (ILB)
ILB: Derrick Johnson, Sean Weatherspoon, Josh Mauga, Ramik Wilson, Justin March, DJ Alexander
CB Marcus Peters, Nolan Carroll, Phillip Gaines, Steven Nelson, D.J. White*, Marcus Cooper, Keith Lewis
FS: Ron Parker, Tyvon Branch (NB), Sean Davis* (CB), Jordan Kovacs
SS Eric Berry, Daniel Sorensen
ST: Cairo Santos (K), Dustin Colquitt (P), James Winchester (LS)

Projected 53-Man

QB(3) - A. Smith, A. Murray, J. Driskel*
RB(3) - J. Charles, S. Ware, C. West
FB(1) - A. Sherman
WR(5) - J. Maclin, W. Fuller*, C. Conley, A. Wilson, H. Sharp*
TE(3) - T. Kelce, J. O'Shaughnessy, D. Harris
OL(9) - E. Fisher, M. Schwartz, J. Reid, B. Grubbs, M. Morse, Z. Fulton, L. Duvernay-Tardiff, J. Pughsley, T. Johnstone*
DL(6) - D. Poe, A. Bailey, M. DeVito, A. Washington*, N. Williams, R. Nunez-Roches
OLB(5) - J. Houston, T. Hali, D. Ford, K. Correa*, F. Zombo
ILB(5) - D. Johnson, S. Weatherspoon, J. Mauga, R. Wilson, J. March
CB(5) - M. Peters, N. Carroll, P. Gaines, S. Nelson, D. White*
DB(5) - E. Berry, R. Parker, T. Branch, S. Davis*, D. Sorensen
ST(3) - C. Santos, D. Colquitt, J. Winchester

Synopsis

There's obviously going to be quite a few questions raised about not signing Sean Smith nor Jaye Howard to long-term deals, while offering one to Mitchell Schwartz when the Chiefs just signed Jah Reid to a contract extension.

Let's be honest, Jah Reid was anything but "good" outside at tackle, but he looked a bit serviceable at guard. I'll be the first to say I very much disliked the deal Dorsey offered up to Reid and I feel as though he's thrown quite a bit of cash at below average players along the front line. This is the same front line that was inconsistent and nearly got Alex Smith killed on several occasions. Mitchell Schwartz isn't only a significant upgrade, he's the best right tackle in the NFL.

While Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff and Zach Fulton have made tremendous strides as late-round draft selections, they are far and away subpar starters at the guard position. At this point, I'm more than comfortable listing Reid as the odds on favorite to win the right guard spot heading into 2016 if the Chiefs can add a good tackle like Schwartz. Fulton is a capable back-up at both guard and center, but isn't starting material. While LDT has grown, he still lacks considerable strength to be a full-time starter.

If Ben Grubbs can return to health at left guard, a starting lineup of Fisher, Grubbs, Morse, Reid, and Schwartz would be a significant upgrade over what we've seen over the past few seasons. I also add Tyler Johnstone in this scenario, who looked like a first round lock before his knee injuries. If he continues to rebuild his lower body strength and ascend off of his good play of 2015, he could be a legitimate "sleeper" prospect as an NFL left tackle.

There will be those who say that letting go of Jeff Allen is a mistake, but I really don't think so. Jeff Allen was subpar more often than not throughout his career here, and while 2015 might have been his best year, he is still very average. Additionally, Allen just cannot remain healthy, and unless he'd sign for a very team friendly deal laden with injury incentives, I can't see the Chiefs bringing him back.

Onto the Jaye Howard situation. Jaye Howard has become a very good football player, but with only one season of top level production, I just can't see spending the type of money I'm assuming it will require to retain his services. Not only that, the 2016 draft is one of the best defensive line drafts I've seen in the past decade. First round caliber talents will almost assuredly be available late into the second round. If there is a time to pass the dollars off, there is no better time than now.

And onto Sean Smith... While I like Sean Smith as a $6-7 million per year cornerback, I don't like him as a $10 million per cornerback, and that is likely what it will take to retain his services in the current market. Smith gets beat over the top often enough and he really fared better than his average this season due to teams targeting rookie Marcus Peters instead. I really believe the Chiefs can function with solid play opposite Peters and I think Gaines and Nelson can provide that. They, obviously, cannot function with the sub-par play that Cooper and Fleming provided, but Gaines has proven he's far better than either and Nelson has flashed ability in limited action. To fortify the position, I add Nolan Carroll on a 3 year deal that makes him a cut option after the first year, and I also add a good play-maker in D.J. White in the middle of the draft.

Instead of re-signing big dollar guys, I instead chose to bring back several important veterans that get the job done, including Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Mike DeVito, and Tyvon Branch. I think the sum of the parts is greater than a single piece and I just can't fathom this defense losing that much talent for one or two guys. I also feel like adding a key cog on the offensive line is a much better play, and will make the Chiefs less of a one-dimensional team.

Onto the draft, I really looked for explosive players and play-makers. Fuller is a taller version of DeSean Jackson and could add that explosive second receiving option that the offense is missing. Coupled with better offensive line play, this could put the Chiefs over the top on the offensive side of the football.

Adolphus Washington and Kamalei Correa are both very explosive defenders that can push the pocket in a hurry, something the Chiefs proved they can ill-afford to lose due to injuries. I see Washington as a much more athletic defensive end than Howard was and a guy that should be able to create more pressure and more negative plays. Correa is explosive out of his stance and plays the run really well. He's a little on the small side, but his athleticism might let him play inside as well. Having multiple pass rushers on the field at once is never a bad thing.

In the defensive backfield, I more or less filled holes, but went for guys that make plays on the football. Neither DB is likely going to get 8 picks in a rookie season like Peters, but these are guys that can get 3-4 picks in a season. Both guys tackle really well, which is something the Chiefs are good at and should want to retain. I think White has the skills to come in and play the nickle spot immediately if need be. Davis has potential to be an impact special teams player immediately and develop into a really good defensive back in time. He's got some great traits, having also played some corner.

The last two picks are, more-or-less, luxury selections. I think the back-up QB position needs more competition and I see a whole bunch of Alex Smith in Driskel. That may not be popular with the masses, but if Alex Smith was a 6th round pick and was your back-up, you'd be thrilled. I'm not convinced that Murray has the arm, nor Bray the brain, to be anything significant in the NFL. We'll see. Sharp is a guy to add to the WR depth and he is DJs cousin, so there is that family mentor connection there, plus Sharp has the skills to be a really good return man in the NFL, something Frankie Hammond has proven not to be.

There you have it, chop away.

[PhataLerror 370]

TAMBA HALI, OLB (KC) - Hali essentially played for 2 million last year (870,000 salary, 1 million signing bonus for reworking his deal, and 130,000 workout bonus). The 2016 vet minimum is $985,000 for players with 10 accrued seasons. I think Hali signs for that minimum and adds on a 1 million signing bonus to hit entirely in 2016, with the entire contract being fully guaranteed with a total cap hit of 2.985 million due to the 1 million in bonus money as part of the voided contract years.

I always enjoy looking at these. Thanks for putting in the time for it.

 

You are incorrect about Tamba Hali's cost against the Chiefs' cap in 2015. According to overthecap.com, Hali signed an extension that tacked onto the last year of his previous contract. His cap hit of almost $3 million in signing bonus due because of his prior contract was unavoidable. When the Chiefs signed him to an extension, he received $5 million is signing bonus, of which $1 million went against the Chiefs' cap in 2015. After that, he was paid another $1 million in salary and workout bonuses. The remaining $4 million will count against the cap in 2016 when Hali's contract voids in less than two weeks.

 

So to clarify, to cut Hali outright in 2015 would have resulted in a $3 million dead money cap hit. To keep Hali ultimately cost the Chiefs an additional $6 million. I can't imagine that the Chiefs would get Hali in 2016 for less than $6 million along with NLTBE bonuses, meaning that the Chiefs would ultimately be on the hook for $10 million in cap money to be distributed between 2016 and 2017.

 

I'm strongly against any further dealings with Hali. Unless he says that he will play for the veterans' minimum, you just can't sign a guy whose wheels are falling off like his are. Pay him his $4 million to not play and let him go. It'll be good for Dee Ford and for the Chiefs.

[MAUI 4,758]

Thanks Crow.., Love reading your stuff..,

[kccrow 529]

I always enjoy looking at these. Thanks for putting in the time for it.

 

You are incorrect about Tamba Hali's cost against the Chiefs' cap in 2015. According to overthecap.com, Hali signed an extension that tacked onto the last year of his previous contract. His cap hit of almost $3 million in signing bonus due because of his prior contract was unavoidable. When the Chiefs signed him to an extension, he received $5 million is signing bonus, of which $1 million went against the Chiefs' cap in 2015. After that, he was paid another $1 million in salary and workout bonuses. The remaining $4 million will count against the cap in 2016 when Hali's contract voids in less than two weeks.

 

So to clarify, to cut Hali outright in 2015 would have resulted in a $3 million dead money cap hit. To keep Hali ultimately cost the Chiefs an additional $6 million. I can't imagine that the Chiefs would get Hali in 2016 for less than $6 million along with NLTBE bonuses, meaning that the Chiefs would ultimately be on the hook for $10 million in cap money to be distributed between 2016 and 2017.

 

I'm strongly against any further dealings with Hali. Unless he says that he will play for the veterans' minimum, you just can't sign a guy whose wheels are falling off like his are. Pay him his $4 million to not play and let him go. It'll be good for Dee Ford and for the Chiefs.

 

For some reason I was looking at the prorated money portion and not the signing bonus as a whole. My mistake and thanks for the reminder. Also, that contract voids 5 days after the Super Bowl, so if the Chiefs don't want to eat 4 million soon, they had better sign Hali quick.

[oldtimer 8,686]

That was a good read. thanx Crow

[SEMO 6,811]

Thanks.

 

I like Branch, but would rather keep Abdullah. I could also see Dorsey keeping both of them for what Berry will get in this market. They could let Berry walk.

 

They are still having dialogue with Howard, so we will see.

 

I like Smith, but agree he isn't worth 10MM. I see another high draft pick at that position.

 

Still don't see them using a 1 on a receiver.

[KC Warpaint 3,234]

Thanks.

 

I like Branch, but would rather keep Abdullah. I could also see Dorsey keeping both of them for what Berry will get in this market. They could let Berry walk.

 

They are still having dialogue with Howard, so we will see.

 

I like Smith, but agree he isn't worth 10MM. I see another high draft pick at that position.

 

Still don't see them using a 1 on a rec'

 

Probably will not use the first rounder on a WR but we do need to add some playmakers in that department, i do not see Avant, Hammond etc returning and Wilson is what he is which is not much more than a 3 or 4

[Calichief 3,016]

Love it

Except Abdullah is the key guy back there. Let branch walk first. I don't like branch in coverage but I love his ability to get after the qb and run stop.

[PhataLerror 370]

For some reason I was looking at the prorated money portion and not the signing bonus as a whole. My mistake and thanks for the reminder. Also, that contract voids 5 days after the Super Bowl, so if the Chiefs don't want to eat 4 million soon, they had better sign Hali quick.

Hali was paid that $4 million back in March of 2015. From his perspective, that money has nothing to do with a 2016 deal. That money is not going to be recovered in any case. If Tamba Hali were to sign a fully guaranteed one-year contract for $2 million (and there's not a chance he would play for only $2 million, even as a reserve), he would count $6 million against the cap this year.

[West 6,714]

Great stuff as always Crow...

 

I like the commentary about Jah Reid and Jeff Allen....The signing of Schwartz would be a serious upgrade.

 

Overall, the defense was a "house of cards" when it when up against great QB's without a healthy Justin Houston.

 

My top two priorities are O-line and Pass Rush, quickly followed by CB and WR.

 

w

[azchief21 5,278]

Nice work Crow. Not sure I want a WR as #1 pick. We have Maclin at #1, Kelce will be getting a lot of targets and we will getting JC back out of the backfield. If Wilson and/or Conley isn't the WR2 then it's imperative that Dorsey fills this without the #1 pick. (FA/lower pick) I'd like to go OL or CB if Smith is let go.

[West 6,714]

Dee Ford needs to start playing like a Premium Pick....

 

w

[jetlord 10,209]

If the Chiefs do pick up Schwartz, then they should go 1. CB and 2. OG in the draft if the value is there.  Using the #1 pick on a WR is a waste at this point.  There's always going to be the BPA vs. needs argument, but the Chiefs need to fill CB, RT, OG, and ILB with help at DE assuming Howard walks. 

[kccrow 529]

I think far too many Chiefs' fans far undervalue a good #2 WR in today's NFL. It's not that I think you guys are entirely wrong about not drafting a receiver in the first round, but I think you are very wrong for thinking that a good #2 isn't necessary because we have Maclin and Kelce. We all saw this past season how good the Chiefs are offensively without Maclin. The offense, quite literally, imploded. I'm not overly confident if the team lost Kelce for an extended period of time either.

 

Let me point you to the 2010-2013 Philadelphia Eagles under Reid. That team featured Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, and Brent Celek. All of those players put up good statistics, and the offense had explosive capabilities. When Maclin went down in 2013, Jackson was able to step up as the #1 and have a career year.  When Jackson left in 2014 and the Eagles added Jordan Matthews with an early 2nd round pick, they were again a top tier offense with explosive capability.

 

And that is a big key with this team, they cannot score quickly on anyone. They are a slow as hell, dink and dunk only team. They need more firepower to strike quickly when needed. They need to be multi-dimensional so teams don't double-cover Kelce and Maclin. You could take a receiver in round 3 and wait for him to develop for two years, or you can take a much better one in the first and get immediate production.

 

I like Conley, but I see him as more of a straight line player. A guy you put in as a number 3 to stretch the field from time to time, much like Reid did with Riley Cooper. I want that DeSean Jackson type that will keep defenses honest immediately.

 

I'm really sick and fucking tired of watching this franchise draft fatass after fatass in the first round while ignoring critical skill positions when they are more than necessary. Dorsey did a great job selecting Peters last year and they were fortunate he fell. Hell, when the Chiefs draft receivers in round 1, they take fatasses there too. Quickness and speed really matter. I will say though, if the Chiefs do take a fatass, I want it to be D-Line in this draft.

 

Drafting a Right Tackle in round 1 is not a theory I'm very high on. It's an absolutely stupid move in my book. I'd never draft a right tackle over playmakers on either side of the ball. If the guy isn't touching the ball on offense, stopping the guys that do on defense, or protecting my QB from blind-side hits, I'm not taking him in round 1. That means no guards, no centers, no right tackles. Do I agree that this team needs help on the offensive line? Absolutely. I've had at least 2 being picked up in some fashion in every edition of this hypothetical "offseason plan" I've put out to date (or at least as much as I remember). I'm not at all opposed to the Chiefs spending multiple picks in the 2nd-5th round range on offensive lineman. I'll talk some more about the tackles.

 

I have the following rated as first round tackles, because they all appear to have what it takes to man the left tackles spot in the NFL:

• Laremy Tunsil - Ole Miss (top 5)
• Ronnie Stanley - Notre Dame (top 5-7)
• Taylor Decker - Ohio State (top 20, projects well to RT as well)
• Jason Spriggs - Indiana (20-30)
• Jack Conklin - Michigan State (20-30, projects well to RT as well)

 

I have the following rated as right tackles only (draft rd):

• Shon Coleman - Auburn (2)
• Kyle Murphy - Stanford (3)
• Pearce Slater - San Diego State (4-5)
• Cole Toner - Harvard (5-6)
• John Theus - Georgia (5-6)
• Alex Lewis - Nebraska (6-7)

 

I have the following as developmental left tackles (draft rd):

• Willie Beavers - Western Michigan (2-3, projects well to RT as well)
• Joe Haeg - North Dakota State (3-4)
• Tyler Johnstone - Oregon (4-5)

 

I have the following listed tackles fitting as guards only in the NFL (draft round):

• Germain Ifedi - Texas A&M (1-2)
• Jerald Hawkins - LSU (2-3)
• Avery Young - Auburn (4-5)

I think that if I'm targeting a tackle in this draft early on, I'm looking at Willie Beavers at the end of round 2. He has good movement and great size as well as the type of ability that could make him a very solid player at right tackle. He sports that big, thick lower half with a bubble ass paired with good power that you look for in a rock at right tackle, but he has enough athleticism to swing to the left in a pinch.

 

I also don't believe this team needs to draft a CB in round 1 when you have a 1st round pick (Peters) and two 3rd round picks (Gaines & Nelson) all on the roster already. Would I grab one on day 1 or 2? I might, if the right one falls. I think this is a position that has starting talent and needs added depth. Looking at Day 1 and day 2, Eli Apple is a consideration if there in round 1. William Jackson III, Artie Burns, and Deiondre Hall are considerations in round 2. I think Eric Murray, D.J. White, and Maurice Canady are guys I'd look at in round 3 or 4 and lean towards 4 with the latter two.

 

What is everyone's fascination with ILB? Yes, if a good one falls into the Chiefs laps I'd most definitely consider it. If a guy like Myles Jack, Darron Lee, Jaylon Smith or Reggie Ragland drops in the first, then I'd absolutely have to take a long, hard look. The only "no brainer" for me is Jaylon Smith. Scooby Wright in the 2nd or 3rd, maybe, but I see him as a better pass-rushing version of Mauga. Other than those guys, I don't see much advantage out there over what the Chiefs got last year. The Chiefs picked up 3 ILBs a year ago in Wilson (Rd 4), Alexander (Rd 5), and March (UDFA). These players need to develop, and are doing just that behind veterans Johnson and Mauga. I really liked that March kid before he got injured and he could end up being a real steal. I like Deion Jones (LSU) in the 3rd, but he's very much the same type of linebacker the Chiefs picked up last year x3.

 

If I took WR out of the first round, I'd likely take advantage of the plethora of talent along the defensive front in this draft.

[DieHard 2,061]

Great post Crow. I agree with Cali for Abduhla over Branch. I think Berry and Smith will be to expensive.

 

Still confused about Hali. 4 mill dead money if we cut him, right? Only 1 mill of the bonus counts against the cap in 2016 if we keep him? Not sure how a prorated signing bonus all comes due this year if we keep him.

 

DJ is the most critical defense FA IMO. And like West said, Ford has got to deliver this year.

[kccrow 529]

Great post Crow. I agree with Cali for Abduhla over Branch. I think Berry and Smith will be to expensive.

 

Still confused about Hali. 4 mill dead money if we cut him, right? Only 1 mill of the bonus counts against the cap in 2016 if we keep him? Not sure how a prorated signing bonus all comes due this year if we keep him.

 

DJ is the most critical defense FA IMO. And like West said, Ford has got to deliver this year.

 

 

Here's how Hali works...

 

He signed a contract "extension" last season that reduced his $9 million salary by $3 million, turning $5 million into a signing bonus and splitting the remaining $1 million between the vet minimum $870,000 salary and $130,000 in workout bonuses. He could have re-earned the other $3 million as $1 million performance escalators by reaching 8, 10, and 12 sacks. Signing bonuses can be spread over the first five years of a contract, so the Chiefs wrote in 4 void years to his deal to delay the cap hit by a year for the signing bonus. Hali's contract voids 5 days after the Super Bowl, and the $4 million in prorated bonus money accelerates to hit this year's cap, unless the Chiefs and Hali come to a new deal. If the Chiefs re-sign Hali before the void deadline, the prorated money will remain spread out with $1 million hitting the books this year in addition to whatever he'd sign for. The remaining $3 million would likely accelerate against the cap in 2017 assuming Hali only signs a 1 year deal. The Chiefs will need to be careful with bonus money if they re-sign Hali, and I could see them writing him in for a very low salary with a "roster bonus" that becomes fully guaranteed at some point just before training camp so that all of that money will hit this year's cap. Therefore, its not a matter of "cutting" Hali. Hali is a free agent if the Chiefs don't re-sign him and they pretty much have to do so before the void deadline or the cap hit for Hali will be enormous this season. And no, a prorated bonus does not accelerate to this year's cap if the Chiefs re-sign him by the void deadline, just to be clear.

[kccrow 529]

By the way guys, thanks for all the praise. I enjoy putting this stuff out there for you guys, and enjoy the banter it creates about different players and ideas. Its fun for me, and it facilitates discussion during a shitty time of the year for football.

[DieHard 2,061]

Here's how Hali works...

 

He signed a contract "extension" last season that reduced his $9 million salary by $3 million, turning $5 million into a signing bonus and splitting the remaining $1 million between the vet minimum $870,000 salary and $130,000 in workout bonuses. He could have re-earned the other $3 million as $1 million performance escalators by reaching 8, 10, and 12 sacks. Signing bonuses can be spread over the first five years of a contract, so the Chiefs wrote in 4 void years to his deal to delay the cap hit by a year for the signing bonus. Hali's contract voids 5 days after the Super Bowl, and the $4 million in prorated bonus money accelerates to hit this year's cap, unless the Chiefs and Hali come to a new deal. If the Chiefs re-sign Hali before the void deadline, the prorated money will remain spread out with $1 million hitting the books this year in addition to whatever he'd sign for. The remaining $3 million would likely accelerate against the cap in 2017 assuming Hali only signs a 1 year deal. The Chiefs will need to be careful with bonus money if they re-sign Hali, and I could see them writing him in for a very low salary with a "roster bonus" that becomes fully guaranteed at some point just before training camp so that all of that money will hit this year's cap. Therefore, its not a matter of "cutting" Hali. Hali is a free agent if the Chiefs don't re-sign him and they pretty much have to do so before the void deadline or the cap hit for Hali will be enormous this season. And no, a prorated bonus does not accelerate to this year's cap if the Chiefs re-sign him by the void deadline, just to be clear.

Thanks Crow! That makes sense. It also makes it a really hard decision. I have no idea which way they go.

[SEMO 6,811]

I have no problem drafting a WR in the 1st. I'm just saying that Dorsey won't do it, unless it is extreme value.

[kccrow 529]

Realized I'm making a gross overstatement on the rookie pool (when I responded to eraser, thanks E!). The current estimate is $5,501,463. I've been using $7,000,000.

Pick-by-pick salaries are:
Round 1 - $ 1,637,807
Round 2 - $ 724,383
Round 3 - $ 614,657
Round 4 - $ 573,682
Round 5 - $ 504,459
Round 5 - $ 502,307
Round 6 - $ 479,466
Round 7 - $ 464,702

Also, I've been forgetting to restate that amount as a "cap figure" because of the top 51 offset which is roughly $450,000 for every draft selection signed. This is relatively "theoretical" based on Over The Cap's thought that each draft pick replaces another player on the roster and the minimum salary is $450,000.

The theoretical cap hit for the rookies is$1,901,463 ($5,501,463 - $3,600,000).

When I put the draft picks into my spreadsheet under the current scenario, the draft picks that count against the cap are the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders at a total of $2,976,847. The top 51 contracts total $145,654,182 leaving the Chiefs with considerable space remaining (roughly 4.3-6.3 million) without using their 2015 rollover, which could add as much as $2.9 million based on the figure currently being reported (although I suspect it is slightly inaccurate because of the Sherman deal) which could leave the chiefs with between $7.2 and 9.2 million in space.

I normally reserve most of the top 51 offset because the Chiefs generally try to remain around $2-$3 million under the cap for in-season moves and the like.

I'll make some considerations for this and likely make a change in the not too distant future.

[wilkie 1,518]

Crow,  you are actually one of the reasons that the Chiefs Coalition is the outstanding website for information about the Kansas City Chiefs.  You really put in the work and I really enjoy reading your analysis.  Thank you so very much for your effort.

[jetlord 10,209]

Good stuff, Crow.  Thanks a let.

 

I agree about not drafting a RT or OG in the first round.  As posted earlier, I think the drop off in waiting until day two is less than the drop off at skilled positions.  My difference with your analysis is that I believe the Chiefs need a top CB to replace Smith more than a #2 WR.  Still hoping for CB, O-line, WR, ILB although it wouldn't have to be in that order depending on value when the Chiefs pick.

[PhataLerror 370]

You could take a receiver in round 3 and wait for him to develop for two years, or you can take a much better one in the first and get immediate production.

I'm not prepared to back this up with statistics, but the pattern that I had observed is that the biggest barrier to being productive in a true West Coast Offense is comprehending at an instinctive level how the offense works. As difficult as it is for a spread quarterback at the collegiate level to transition to a pro-style offense in the NFL, it might be harder for a common receiver at the collegiate level to transition to a West Coast Offense. There's so much to learn, and the whole thing really doesn't work well unless everyone is doing exactly what they are supposed to be doing.

 

I'm not sure that there's a huge advantage to drafting early for West Coast Offense receivers except that you get a more physically talented receiver. It's still going to take them a season before they're ready to take most snaps, and another season on top of that before they're ready to execute at the precision needed in order for the offense to truly work as it should. The Chiefs will get immediate production out of a safety, cornerback, offensive lineman, or linebacker drafted in the first round. Maybe they should be targeting a West Coast Offense-ready free agent, although I don't know who would really fit that description.

[PhataLerror 370]

Hali is a free agent if the Chiefs don't re-sign him and they pretty much have to do so before the void deadline or the cap hit for Hali will be enormous this season. And no, a prorated bonus does not accelerate to this year's cap if the Chiefs re-sign him by the void deadline, just to be clear.

I might have been a little more specific than I intended to be concerning when the $4 million hits the cap, but I really can't see a scenario where Hali sees that $4 million belonging to anyone but him. In a practical sense, the Chiefs still have to count $4 million against the cap at some point, while any potential four-million-and-first dollar to count against the cap would be in Hali's eyes the first dollar earned for the 2016 season.

 

The Chiefs kicked the can in 2015. There's no reason they can't kick it again in 2016. But should they? Absolutely not. You can't leave aging players on the books.

[eraser 722]

I agree on everything except for the # 1 pick. 

 

I made a risky scenario in another thread. It starts with signing Jaye Howard to play NT/DT. The Chiefs cannot afford both Poe and Howard. Howard will be cheaper, and is more versatile. If the Chiefs decide to move to a 4-3 defense, no problem with Howard. Howard can play 3-4 DE, 4-3 DT, or 3-4 NT.

 

The Titans have a whole lot of needs, and they have a new coach who is willing to make those moves. Whisenhunt was a joke. The team improved when they dropped Whisenhunt, and promoted coach Malarkey. The Titans desperately need a RT. They do not need a LT. San Diego needs a LT. It seems natural for the Titans to swap picks with the Chargers. The Titans moved to a 3-4 defense, and have no one special at NT. Trading for Poe, and KC's #28 pick makes a lot of sense. The Titans can find a decent corner at 28, a running back, and a RT at 33 and 35. They can add a receiver at the top of round 3. The Titans need these picks just to compete next season. 

 

I have been watching a lot of Laquon Treadwell. He is not particularly fast, probably 4.5 to 4.55 in the 40. What he does well is use his big body to make tough catches. I think he will show up at the combine weighing close to 230 lbs. He is 6'3", he squats 500 lbs, and has a 41.5 inch vertical leap. He looks like Cam at WR. Combine Treadwell, Maclin, and Kelce, and you will have a very tough group of receivers. Wilson, and Conley can help off the bench. Wilson should be a decent slot receiver. Conley has the size and speed to hurt teams over the top. I think the addition of Treadwell could transform the Chiefs' offense to the next level.