Kansas City Chiefs will likely enjoy compensatory picks next year

[KC Warpaint 3,234]

Arrowhead Pride:

 

The football season is finally over. Now every single NFL team can turn their full attention toward the offseason. The NFL Combine, free agency, and the NFL Draft will churn over rosters in the hopes of being in the same position as the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos were on Sunday.. But one new wrinkle in NFL rules will alter the approach, at least to a minor degree, of general managers this offseason for the first time.

 

During NFL owners meetings in Irving, Texas last December, the league voted to allow compensatory draft picks to be traded beginning in 2017. For the sake of review, the NFL awards extra picks in the NFL draft, beyond the 32 slots in each of the draft's seven rounds, to franchises that have lost more free agents than they have signed (teams are compensated for losing both quantity and quality). Compensatory picks are slotted after the original 32 picks are done in a given round, and they are only awarded from rounds 3-7.

 

 

Remind me how this works

 

As a quick example, you might remember two offseasons ago, the Kansas City Chiefs allowed several veterans to leave in free agency, a group that included Branden Albert, Jon Asamoah, Geoff Schwartz, Dexter McCluster and Tyson Jackson. General manager John Dorsey also seemed disinterested in signing replacements for those losses, with Vance Walker and Joe Mays as the main free agent signings that year. The reward, if you want to refer to it as such, was four extra picks in the draft: Steven Nelson, D.J. Alexander, James O'Shaughnessy, Rakeem Nunez-Roches.

 

Once again, the Chiefs have a significant number of free agents ready to hit the market, and for a GM like Dorsey, I believe the ability to trade compensation picks in 2017 is going to mean quite a bit. Again, for the sake of review, the following are just some of the players available in free agency: Eric Berry, Sean Smith, Derrick Johnson, Jaye Howard, Tamba Hali, Donald Stephenson, Jeff Allen, Husain Abdullah, Chase Daniel, Mike DeVito, Tyvon Branch. Let's summarize: that is an insane amount. The Chiefs will retain some of this lot, but the loss will be felt in the market. No doubt about that.

 

Three points for clarification

 

•   If Dorsey wants to make a big free agent splash, he's not going to refrain from signing a player because he could lose a mid-round compensation pick in the NFL Draft a year from now. This shouldn't need to be said, but internet commenters will likely say I'm saying Dorsey should sit on his hands for an extra sixth rounder, and that's not true. Just being clear.

•  Not every FA lost equals a comp pick for the team that loses him. I'm not going to explain the rules, because I'm already several hundred words in and you can read it yourself here.

•  To answer the inevitable question, the NFL announces comp picks in late March. (Last year, it was March 23.)

 

So what does this mean?

 

Dorsey already seemed to enjoy creating a draft bounty for himself (a la the aforementioned offseason). Dorsey can also sign the big FA if he wants (Jeremy Maclin, Sean Smith). But given his Green Bay pedigree and short history with the Chiefs, Dorsey seems warm to a draft-and-develop philosophy as he trusts his coaching staff to do what they do. And if compensatory picks were already important to Dorsey, then the ability to trade them makes them even more so.

I

 

Important side note: even with the potential free agent losses, the Chiefs are probably the deepest they have been in years. There are promising players all over the roster, and fewer holes than at any point since the Dorsey-Reid regime began. This is vital, because the Chiefs are one of a few teams who do not necessarily need several picks in terms of quantity. The ability to trade them, then, gives them options for better quality.

 

What could this allow Dorsey to do?

 

Here are some examples:

 

•     With two "extra" fifth round picks last year (see aforementioned comp picks), Dorsey flipped his original fifth round pick to the New Orleans Saints for Ben Grubbs.

•     Last year, the Denver Broncos sat where the Chiefs sit this year at No. 28 overall. They liked Mizzou pass rusher Shane Ray and traded up to No. 23 to the Detroit Lions. The cost to move up five slots in the first round: two fifth round selections.

•     Moving up significant amounts in the second round is typically a mid-round and late-round pick. The Texans, targeting ILB Bernardrick McKinney in the 2nd and seeing a potential run on linebackers, moved up 8 spots in a trade with the Browns. The cost was a 4th and 6th round pick.

• For some other loaded teams, like the Seattle Seahawks, they traded an extra 4th, 5th and 6th to Washington along with their 3rd round choice to move up from the bottom of the third round to grab Tyler Lockett.

 

It's this final move, the Tyler Lockett trade, that excites me most about the ability to trade compensatory picks for Dorsey. For a team that already has a solid 53, the ability to package picks to get the guy you really want is important to grab impact guys for teams picking lower in the draft. That the Seahawks could jump from No. 95 to No. 69 is a serious move, and Lockett showed exactly why he's so dangerous during his rookie season.

 

Every general manager will enjoy the added flexibility of being able to trade any or all draft assets, but it will be especially interesting to see how Dorsey approaches the free agency market this year. He could add significant quantity this year for the ability to add serious quality in 2017.
 

[kccrow 529]

We'll see who they retain, who signs for what that leaves, and what the Chiefs bring in, so its going to be a while before we have any idea. I'd venture to say the Chiefs will let some talent walk and sign some lower to mid tier players, likely ending up with a 3rd, 4th or 5th, and a 7th when all is said and done. That's purely based on my conjecture of who will be retained and who will not be.

 

Of the likely qualifiers, I expect the following to be retained but I'll post my expected ranges anyhow:

 

Eric Berry - Approx 9.5 APY 3rd round or 4th round

Derrick Johnson - Approx 5.0 APY 5th round

Tyvon Branch OR Husain Abdullah - Approx 2.5 APY 7th round or beyond cutoff

Mike DeVito - Approx 2.5 APY 7th round or beyond cutoff

Frank Zombo - Approx 1.0 APY beyond cutoff

Jason Avant - Approx 1.0 APY beyond cutoff

 

That leaves the following and my expected range:

 

Sean Smith - Approx 9.5 APY, 3rd or 4th round

Jaye Howard - Approx 9.0 APY 3rd or 4th round

Chase Daniel - Approx 3.0 APY 6th or 7th round

Jeff Allen - Approx 4.0 APY 5th or 6th round

Donald Stephenson - Approx 2.5 APY 7th round or beyond cutoff

Husain Abdullah OR Tyvon Branch - Approx 2.5 APY 7th round or beyond cutoff

 

I expect that Kansas City will have signings to cancel some of the late guys anyhow, like Stepenson and Abdullah/Branch. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they had one cancellation in that 5th or 6th round range either.

 

That probably leaves KC with a 3rd, 4th, and 6th or 7th as a best case scenario.

This is all conjecture at this point though. After free agency, we'll have a pretty clear picture of what to expect, but playing time is also a factor which is why you sometimes see some low salary guys qualifying for 7th round picks (there is a coefficient that can boost their APY more than others).

[KC Warpaint 3,234]

We'll see who they retain, who signs for what that leaves, and what the Chiefs bring in, so its going to be a while before we have any idea. I'd venture to say the Chiefs will let some talent walk and sign some lower to mid tier players, likely ending up with a 3rd, 4th or 5th, and a 7th when all is said and done. That's purely based on my conjecture of who will be retained and who will not be.

 

Of the likely qualifiers, I expect the following to be retained but I'll post my expected ranges anyhow:

 

Eric Berry - Approx 9.5 APY 3rd round or 4th round

Derrick Johnson - Approx 5.0 APY 5th round

Tyvon Branch OR Husain Abdullah - Approx 2.5 APY 7th round or beyond cutoff

Mike DeVito - Approx 2.5 APY 7th round or beyond cutoff

Frank Zombo - Approx 1.0 APY beyond cutoff

Jason Avant - Approx 1.0 APY beyond cutoff

 

That leaves the following and my expected range:

 

Sean Smith - Approx 9.5 APY, 3rd or 4th round

Jaye Howard - Approx 9.0 APY 3rd or 4th round

Chase Daniel - Approx 3.0 APY 6th or 7th round

Jeff Allen - Approx 4.0 APY 5th or 6th round

Donald Stephenson - Approx 2.5 APY 7th round or beyond cutoff

Husain Abdullah OR Tyvon Branch - Approx 2.5 APY 7th round or beyond cutoff

 

I expect that Kansas City will have signings to cancel some of the late guys anyhow, like Stepenson and Abdullah/Branch. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they had one cancellation in that 5th or 6th round range either.

 

That probably leaves KC with a 3rd, 4th, and 6th or 7th as a best case scenario.

This is all conjecture at this point though. After free agency, we'll have a pretty clear picture of what to expect, but playing time is also a factor which is why you sometimes see some low salary guys qualifying for 7th round picks (there is a coefficient that can boost their APY more than others).

 

 

i see no reason to keep avant, you can get someone younger in FA who can do what he did this season (which was not much)

 

and yes, i know he provides valuable leadership qualities for the younger players but i don't think that is good enough

[kccrow 529]

i see no reason to keep avant, you can get someone younger in FA who can do what he did this season (which was not much)

 

and yes, i know he provides valuable leadership qualities for the younger players but i don't think that is good enough

 

I have a feeling Reid will want to bring him to camp. He doesn't cost much with the veteran cap rules anyhow, only $680,000. You'd only have 80,000 in possible guaranteed money under that type of structure if he's a cut. Really not a big deal whatsoever.

[DieHard 2,061]

Only he we have 5 WRs better than him. He has the best hands on the team, can block, play special teams and find openings in a zone D. He is slow and old, but still to me that beats young and talentless. Frankly Hammond comes to mind. I hope we get a couple new guys to push him off the team.

 

Mac, Conely and Albert are the only ones I see above Avant.