Colin Kaepernick, the Denver Broncos' New Throwing Runningback?

[PhataLerror 370]

Forgive me if this is supposed to be in NFL Talk, but it's big news about the Broncos, and I'm not sure on which side of the blurry line between Chiefs and NFL this falls on.

 

Here is the story.

 

The short version: If Kaepernick takes a massive pay cut for a chance to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, he will be a Bronco in 2016.

 

Alex Smith's offense and Colin Kaepernick's offense on the same field twice a year? And our team gets Smith? That would be awesome. This could be the beginning of a new tradition: The Chiefs get the quality quarterbacks that the 49ers let slip through their fingers, while the Broncos can have the quarterbacks not worth being kept by the 49ers.

[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

Let's see, I go to Denver and take a pay cut of close to 4-5 mill or I stay here and get my 11 mill. Tough decision.

 

I know some will say take a pay cut and maybe start in Denver, but it's not guaranteed he will start. Also it's not like he has made boo coo millions in the past. Yes others have taken pay cuts to help their teams but those were players with lots of money in the bank. JMO

[kccrow 529]

Let's see, I go to Denver and take a pay cut of close to 4-5 mill or I stay here and get my 11 mill. Tough decision.

 

I know some will say take a pay cut and maybe start in Denver, but it's not guaranteed he will start. Also it's not like he has made boo coo millions in the past. Yes others have taken pay cuts to help their teams but those were players with lots of money in the bank. JMO

 

The guaranteed portion of his deal is done, so he won't make 11.9 million anywhere, the only guarantees left are against injury. The 49ers would save 8.5 million against the cap just by cutting him outright, with just over 7.4 million in dead money. The 49ers would likely cut him, since the they lead the league in cap space. They'd be smart to wait to cut him until after the draft if they can't trade him, just as insurance should they not get a QB they want. Even fewer teams will likely be bidding for his services after the draft, so it's a smart thing if Kaep restructures for the trade. The only reason restructuring matters to the Donkey's is that they don't want to pay his scheduled salaries which total 77.2 million from 2016-2020.

[West 6,714]

Locally, Chip Kelly arrived and said, "there is a place on this team for Colin"

 

Kap's camp immediately responded with, "I want to be traded - now"

 

Things are pretty F'ed up in Niner Land...

 

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[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

Blane Gabert, Thad Lewis, Dylan Thompson, or Kap who would you prefer to be your starter?

[DieHard 2,061]

Blane Gabert, Thad Lewis, Dylan Thompson, or Kap who would you prefer to be your starter?

Alex Smith. Lol

[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

Alex Smith. Lol

That's my point exactly no matter what they will not have a good starting QB. I know people will talk about their D but when was the last time a team that won a SB on the back of their D go back again the following season? Don't say Seattle because Seattle at least had an effective offense to go with their D.

[DieHard 2,061]

Agreed. It is sweet. I was gloating a bit because they are usually on too in that category.

[JPPT1974 21]

It is about him taking a huge pay cut. That is the key to it!

[KCSLC2008 606]

I've had to take a third less to get to get a new position and now I'm making more than the original job, but the again, I'm not talking about millions.

 

I think it would be funny for him to refuse the pay cut, lose the competition with Gabbert, and sign as a backup with the Broncos (if they get a different starting QB) next year. I think Smith would take the pay cut if he were in that position. He understands how it feels to lose his job and how special starting is. Even his new deal is 14-16th in the league.

[PhataLerror 370]

Blane Gabert, Thad Lewis, Dylan Thompson, or Kap who would you prefer to be your starter?

Out of those four, unquestionably Gabbert. Gabbert's career arc happens to be most like Alex Smith's: Drafted early to be the savior of a team that drifted from season to season without any clear mandate, and with no ability to attract free agents at a competitive cost. Gabbert showed well after many of the critical pieces of the team had already gone on Injured Reserve. He outperformed Kaepernick at almost every measure.

[PhataLerror 370]

The guaranteed portion of his deal is done, so he won't make 11.9 million anywhere, the only guarantees left are against injury. The 49ers would save 8.5 million against the cap just by cutting him outright, with just over 7.4 million in dead money. The 49ers would likely cut him, since the they lead the league in cap space. They'd be smart to wait to cut him until after the draft if they can't trade him, just as insurance should they not get a QB they want. Even fewer teams will likely be bidding for his services after the draft, so it's a smart thing if Kaep restructures for the trade. The only reason restructuring matters to the Donkey's is that they don't want to pay his scheduled salaries which total 77.2 million from 2016-2020.

This is not correct. Kaepernick's base salary is guaranteed for injury or skill. The only way the 49ers could save cap money would be to leave him inactive on Sundays so that he could not collect the in-game roster bonuses. If they really wanted to work over Kaepernick, they could try to find grounds for a Non-Football Injury designation, but things are delicate enough in San Francisco that the front office probably would do well to avoid yet another circus.

 

If they would have acted sooner, the 49ers would have been able to trade Kaepernick for late-round draft pick compensation and not have the trade be contingent on Kaepernick's cooperation on a contract renegotiation. To try to squeeze every bit of draft capital they could out of Kaepernick, they threw away the free agency period, and pseudo-retired right tackle Anthony Davis has been reluctant to sign his reinstatement papers in order to return to the 49ers. Poorly played all around.

[kccrow 529]

This is not correct. Kaepernick's base salary is guaranteed for injury or skill. The only way the 49ers could save cap money would be to leave him inactive on Sundays so that he could not collect the in-game roster bonuses. If they really wanted to work over Kaepernick, they could try to find grounds for a Non-Football Injury designation, but things are delicate enough in San Francisco that the front office probably would do well to avoid yet another circus.

 

If they would have acted sooner, the 49ers would have been able to trade Kaepernick for late-round draft pick compensation and not have the trade be contingent on Kaepernick's cooperation on a contract renegotiation. To try to squeeze every bit of draft capital they could out of Kaepernick, they threw away the free agency period, and pseudo-retired right tackle Anthony Davis has been reluctant to sign his reinstatement papers in order to return to the 49ers. Poorly played all around

 

I have never, in my life, heard of "guaranteed for skill." The thing I was wrong about was that I forgot that Kaepernick's contract has language through 2018 that guarantees his base salary in the current league year as of April 1 (well, part of it in 2018 and in full in the other years). Roster vesting schedules are not "guaranteeing a contract for skill," but perhaps this is what you were referring to. So, now that the 49ers sat on their hands, they are on the hook for his $11.9 base salary this year.

 

I thought it was really interesting, in looking back again at his contract, the $12 million de-escalating performance-based incentive he had in his contract. The value of the incentive de-escalates by $2 million every year he doesn't earn it. If he plays in a Super Bowl and plays at least 80% of the snaps in the regular and post season or he gets named 1st or 2nd team All-Pro, then he gets a nice pay day.

 

If I was Kap, I'd really screw it to the 49ers unless I knew I'd still get at least $11.9 million as a signing bonus in a restructure. He's set to live a really good life at this point given that he would have earned $34.6 million from 2014 through 2016 even if he doesn't play a down this season.

[PhataLerror 370]

I have never, in my life, heard of "guaranteed for skill." The thing I was wrong about was that I forgot that Kaepernick's contract has language through 2018 that guarantees his base salary in the current league year as of April 1 (well, part of it in 2018 and in full in the other years). Roster vesting schedules are not "guaranteeing a contract for skill," but perhaps this is what you were referring to. So, now that the 49ers sat on their hands, they are on the hook for his $11.9 base salary this year.

Strangely, it was a phrase I had come across repeatedly for a period of time, but it evidently is not a technical term actually used in contracts. The implication of the phrase was that if a quarterback ends up being benched or released for performance issues, he doesn't lose any portion of his base salary, but that is something effectively accomplished by a "fully guaranteed" contract. A desire to limit the 49ers' exposure to dead money and worthless cap hits are what led to many of their contracts being structured to allocate a significant percentage of a contract's value to in-game roster bonuses.

 

The 49ers had no choice but to keep Kaepernick through the April 1 deadline: He was "injured" (as he was recovering from off-season surgeries that may have been deliberately scheduled specifically to run his recovery past the April 1 date), and waiving him could have potentially triggered either a grievance, or in the worst-case scenario, Kaepernick's base salaries for the next five years (all already guaranteed for injury since the contract was signed) if he had managed a legitimate claim that his injuries required him to retire from football (as I understand, Kaepernick's own insurance policy would have paid those salaries, but the 49ers would have been on the hook for the entirety of that value against their salary cap).

[kccrow 529]

I wish more contracts in the NFL were structured based on roster/performance-based incentives, but then you get into the tricky cap regulations and designations as "likely to be earned" (LTBE).

 

I think you see on Spotrac that Kap's contract for 2016 has 1.125 million out of 2 million in potential roster bonuses labeled as LTBE.

 

And thanks for clarifying Phatal.

[eraser 722]

The latest info is Kap is not going to Denver. He accepted the $400 K bonus by showing up. He is not willing to take a pay check. The interesting thing is he is not guaranteed the money. The 49ers can cut him, and Kap will be without a contract, and a team.

[KCSLC2008 606]

What are you talking about Eraser? He's guaranteed the 11.9 minus game day checks if on the team and inactive, I suppose. Are you talking about not being guaranteed the $400,000 workout bonus?

[FANATIC 852]

Kap in Denver would not be a good thing for KC. He is better than Manning was at any time last year. SF was a train wreck from day one. In todays QB salary structure...his is not too bad.

[PhataLerror 370]

Kap in Denver would not be a good thing for KC. He is better than Manning was at any time last year. SF was a train wreck from day one. In todays QB salary structure...his is not too bad.

I picked the Broncos to win this past Super Bowl -- actually, I picked against the Panthers because I thought Cam Newton was overrated and was going to fold under pressure. I can tell you that if Kaepernick had been playing for Denver, I would have picked the Panthers to win. Cam Newton is a more mechanically sound and more psychologically resilient version of Colin Kaepernick.

 

Colin Kaepernick is a phenomenal athlete. He is also the sort of player that does not elevate the talent around him. If you watch Kaepernick's games against the Seahawks, you find this pattern of Kaepernick being marginalized repeatedly, seldom able to string together meaningful drives. To beat Kaepernick, you just have to take away his primary read and tire him out by forcing him to run laterally on a repeated basis. Once you tire him out, he can't time his throws properly, and the throws themselves come out inaccurately. He is an incomplete quarterback, and easily exploited by a quality defensive scheme with a reasonable degree of talent. The Chiefs meet the minimum talent threshold. Bob Sutton should be able to figure the rest out, perhaps with a little help from Alex Smith.