eraser 722 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Alex Smith, age 32 now, but 20.9 years old when drafted. 6'4". Ran official 4.71 at combine, but looks much faster. Likely closer to a 4.6 runner. 40 on Wonderlic test, 55 mph velocity. Highly mobile. 9 3/8 hand size. Chase Daniel, age 29 now, and 23 1/2 on draft day. 6'0". Ran 4.91 at combine. More mobile than fast. Sturdy. 27 on Wonderlic test, and 57 mph velocity on fast ball. 9 1/4 hand size. Aaron Murray, age 25 now. 22 1/2 on draft day. 6'1", Did not run at combine. Looks fairly slow. 29 on the Wonderlic test. 54 mph velocity 9 1/8 hand size. Tyler Bray, 24 years old now. 21 years old on draft day. 6'6" Ran official 5.05 at combine. Poor footwork. Somewhat slow. Good size, tough. 24 on Wonderlic test. 59- 60 mph velocity on ball. 9 1/4 hand size. Kevin Hogan, 23 1/2 now and 23 1/2 on draft day. 6'3". Ran an official 4.78 at combine. Poor footwork, and throwing motion. tough minded, good runner, and winner. 38 on Wonderlic test. Very bright. 53 mph velocity on ball. Receivers have to wait on the ball to come to them. 10 1/4 hand size. I used Chase Daniel as a reference point. Fans said his arm was not strong enough. That is clearly not true. He has an acceptable fastball. His size is inferior, and he lacks ideal speed. There are a few categories that befit a successful QB. In the past 20 years, if a QB has not met these basic criteria, they were not successful. 1. MPH on fastball. No QB has been successful in the NFL without being able to throw the ball 55 mph or faster. That takes Murray and Hogan off the list 2. Age at draft. No QB who was 24 yo or older has been successful in the NFL for the past 20 years. Typically, younger quarterbacks have an advantage as long as they have had at least 3 years of collegiate play. Bray, and Smith are in this category. No one was 24 yo or older. 3. Hand size. Few QB with smaller hands than 9 1/4 inches. Most successful have larger hands, especially in colder climates, but not always. This eliminates Aaron Murray. All others barely meet the qualifications, except Hogan. 4. Character concerns. Character matters. This would eliminate Tyler Bray, except for the fact he has straightened out his life. There are quarterbacks who have had questionable character, and still made it. No current QB on the staff has what would be considered character issues. 5. Health concerns. Murray and Bray had medical concerns when they were drafted. Besides Alex Smith, no other QB really hits the spot. I would eliminate Hogan and Murray. Of the two Murray least represents what would be considered a potentially good quarterback in the NFL. Hogan may have a stronger arm than shown, if he can straighten out his mechanics. The Chiefs state they are not going to mess with his mechanics. Therefore, I would not waste much time with him either. 6. Height. Most successful NFL quarterbacks are at least 6'3" tall. If not, they must be extremely mobile or have a fast release. Again, this eliminates Murray. I would place Hogan on the practice team, keep Bray, start Alex, and shop for a veteran such as Nick Foles, if he is released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kccrow 529 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 I think you're making way too much about ball velocity at this point. While there is some level of correlation between 54 mph+ and AYA, as well as some level of "NFL success," there is not a large enough sample of data yet to make any clear conclusions. This is because there is only Combine data on throw velocity, taken by a third party*, and that only dates back to 2008. Nearly all NFL QB's fit in the range of 50-59 mph and most of the QB's that have shown some level of "NFL success," have been in the 54 mph+ group. However, that success isn't very quantifiable at this juncture, given that most have only had what most people in the league would consider as marginal ability with the likes of guys like Marc Sanchez and Colin Kaepernick filling out the bulk of players labeled as "successful." So far, it seems like 54-58 mph is the "sweet spot," but results have to catch up with the statistic. *Additionally, there is no test issued directly by the league at the combine to measure throwing velocity. It's a bunch of guys from Ourlads standing around with a radar gun clocking the throws the QBs take and using the highest as the measurement. QBs aren't throwing the ball as hard as they can at a 20 yard target in a straight line or something like that. Drew Brees was clocked at 52 mph on Sports Science, and he's had a great deal of NFL success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eraser 722 Posted July 2, 2016 Author Share Posted July 2, 2016 good reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eraser 722 Posted July 2, 2016 Author Share Posted July 2, 2016 good reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,686 Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 I think you're making way too much about ball velocity at this point. While there is some level of correlation between 54 mph+ and AYA, as well as some level of "NFL success," there is not a large enough sample of data yet to make any clear conclusions. This is because there is only Combine data on throw velocity, taken by a third party*, and that only dates back to 2008. Nearly all NFL QB's fit in the range of 50-59 mph and most of the QB's that have shown some level of "NFL success," have been in the 54 mph+ group. However, that success isn't very quantifiable at this juncture, given that most have only had what most people in the league would consider as marginal ability with the likes of guys like Marc Sanchez and Colin Kaepernick filling out the bulk of players labeled as "successful." So far, it seems like 54-58 mph is the "sweet spot," but results have to catch up with the statistic. *Additionally, there is no test issued directly by the league at the combine to measure throwing velocity. It's a bunch of guys from Ourlads standing around with a radar gun clocking the throws the QBs take and using the highest as the measurement. QBs aren't throwing the ball as hard as they can at a 20 yard target in a straight line or something like that. Drew Brees was clocked at 52 mph on Sports Science, and he's had a great deal of NFL success. then you Have Joe Montana he & Breese always throw a turd in the punch bowl of these kind of stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 I always thought that smarts were more important than anything, but looking up Wonderlic results. I was surprised how little those scores mattered. Maybe it is that Wonderlic is a poor indicator of smarts or maybe it's that instinct not smarts is the key factor. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,686 Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 I always thought that smarts were more important than anything, but looking up Wonderlic results. I was surprised how little those scores mattered. Maybe it is that Wonderlic is a poor indicator of smarts or maybe it's that instinct not smarts is the key factor. Thoughts? its all about instincts under fire..JMHO wonder what Favre's Wonderlic was? Just the name Wonderlic does not inspire confidence from me...but thats jus me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Best scores ever. Not what I expected. 50 P Mike Mamula 49 LB Ryan Fitzpatrick 48 QB Greg McElroy 48 QB Benjamin Watson 48 TE Kevin Curtis 48 WR Matt Birk 46 OL Jason Maas 43 QB Eric Decker 43 WR Blaine Gabbert 42 QB Drew Henson 42 QB Pete Kendall 41 LB Ryan Nassib 41 QB Bruce Eugene 41 QB Hugh Millen 41 QB Calvin Johnson 41 WR Alex Smith 40 QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,686 Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Best scores ever. Not what I expected. 50 P Mike Mamula 49 LB Ryan Fitzpatrick 48 QB Greg McElroy 48 QB Benjamin Watson 48 TE Kevin Curtis 48 WR Matt Birk 46 OL Jason Maas 43 QB Eric Decker 43 WR Blaine Gabbert 42 QB Drew Henson 42 QB Pete Kendall 41 LB Ryan Nassib 41 QB Bruce Eugene 41 QB Hugh Millen 41 QB Calvin Johnson 41 WR Alex Smith 40 QB I think that pretty much tells the wonderlic whomever the fuk he was thats he sold the nfl a load of crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidfriend 1,151 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 It's mostly there to judge how quick a prospect can make a decision, but it's really a flawed test, as the test has nothing to do with football decision making and teams don't give a shit about the test. Trying to come with a streamlined way to use statistical measuring to determine greatness is mostly flawed, unless somehow all 32 teams ran the same style of offense and wanted the same exact type of QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 I think that pretty much tells the wonderlic whomever the *** he was thats he sold the nfl a load of *** There's a lot of good players in that list. If you want to see what the Wonderlic scores project for, try looking at which players scored poorly. Like all combine tests, it is one measure that assists in projecting the future of a player. If at the collegiate level a player dominates on the football field for reasons that can be traced to football smarts rather than raw athletic ability, the Wonderlic results may not be as important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 There are as many good players on the lower end as well. Probably as evenly mixed as the top end. I saw some good players in the teens. I guess like an IQ test not predicting success, Wonderlic is the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Cali Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 its all about instincts under fire..JMHO wonder what Favre's Wonderlic was? Just the name Wonderlic does not inspire confidence from me...but thats jus me Wonderlic my balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Okiechief1 Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 its all about instincts under fire..JMHO Yep I've heard Jaws say something similar, his was beyond the physical tools it's the ability to process information and what to do with that information. No test for that particular set of skills IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilyous2 884 Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Sure, Hogan has weird mechanics. Of course, so do some other very successful QB's. The Chiefs staff doesn't want to mess with it, yes. I think that's the right decision. But throwing speed can be booted up by some strength training by another 1-2 mph. He has some work to do in some areas, but he has brains and a winning mentality. Another thing is building an offense around bringing out strengths and minimizing weaknesses. Great pass protection can neutralize a lot. The types and qualities of receivers. The buildup of the running game. Schemes to create moments of uncertainty in the defense. We all know these things. Its a team game. Still, Eraser, that is a great breakdown of the basic numbers. I learned a lot from it. The only one I would write off, from your analysis, is Murray. My biggest concern is that this is the Chiefs window. Probably a brief one. So, I agree totally with acquiring a veteran backup who has played in Reid's type of system, in case Alex goes down. Keeping our fingers crossed may be the most effective thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidfriend 1,151 Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Sure goofy mechanics isn't a problem, if it works. Vick had a very unorthodox throwing motion, but it worked eventually. Rivers tosses it awkwardly, but it certainly works. Hogan was very up and down on one of the most talented CFB teams. I think the potential is there, but his set holds him back. It would be a mistake to not adjust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.