Chiefmanzada 466 Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 Other than a noodle for an arm. Peyton Manning? I agree, because there's no way you're talking about Alex Smith, who has a very strong arm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 Peyton Manning? I agree, because there's no way you're talking about Alex Smith, who has a very strong arm If I were to classify Smith's arm in NFL terms, Smith's arm isn't very strong, but it's closer to "very strong" than it is to "noodle". It is definitely better than 'functional'. What really does matter is whether or not arm strength is a determining factor in the success of deep throws against quality NFL defenses that are properly coordinated. I've never seen data that suggests any correlation between completion percentage on deep throws and throw velocity. A good deep touch pass can be difficult for the best cornerbacks in the league to contest. If anything, the cannon arm frozen rope throws (favored by fans that don't understand football beyond combine measurables) lack the touch to be completed over quality cornerbacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefmanzada 466 Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 If I were to classify Smith's arm in NFL terms, Smith's arm isn't very strong, but it's closer to "very strong" than it is to "noodle". It is definitely better than 'functional'. What really does matter is whether or not arm strength is a determining factor in the success of deep throws against quality NFL defenses that are properly coordinated. I've never seen data that suggests any correlation between completion percentage on deep throws and throw velocity. A good deep touch pass can be difficult for the best cornerbacks in the league to contest. If anything, the cannon arm frozen rope throws (favored by fans that don't understand football beyond combine measurables) lack the touch to be completed over quality cornerbacks. He line drives every deep pass he throws. The only long throw I've seen from him that was accurate was the one against Buffalo to Maclin for a touchdown. He cannot throw the deep ball because of his accuracy. He lacks touch in this department simply because he zips the ball and often overthrows the receiver. He needs to put some air under the ball and let his receiver adjust to the pass rather then have the ball do all the work like on that play to Maclin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,686 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 you guys just cant help yourselves take NCC's bait..after all this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NChiefsCorner 496 Posted August 8, 2016 Author Share Posted August 8, 2016 Oldtimer you know me well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 He line drives every deep pass he throws. The only long throw I've seen from him that was accurate was the one against Buffalo to Maclin for a touchdown. He cannot throw the deep ball because of his accuracy. He lacks touch in this department simply because he zips the ball and often overthrows the receiver. He needs to put some air under the ball and let his receiver adjust to the pass rather then have the ball do all the work like on that play to Maclin Perhaps he should be underthrowing his receivers more? I don't recall Smith's deep ball being unusually inaccurate by NFL standards. I did however notice that Smith rarely had opportunity to step into deep throws properly as underpowered interior linemen constantly gave up the front of the pocket. There's just too much hyperbole and stereotype and too little context in your comments on the subject. Smith has had some nice deep touch passes, and he ranked tenth in the league in rate of pass completions of 40 yards or more. 1 Ben Roethlisberger 3.62% 2 Tyrod Taylor 2.89% 3 Colin Kaepernick 2.87% 4 Andy Dalton 2.85% 5 Carson Palmer 2.79% 6 Eli Manning 2.59% 7 Sam Bradford 2.44% 8 Nick Foles 2.37% 9 Ryan Tannehill 2.22% 10 Alex Smith 2.13% 11 Peyton Manning 2.11% 12 Drew Brees 2.07% 13 Jay Cutler 2.07% 14 Josh McCown 2.05% 15 Cam Newton 2.02% 16 Tom Brady 1.92% 17 Russell Wilson 1.86% 18 Blake Bortles 1.82% 19 Blaine Gabbert 1.77% 20 Derek Carr 1.75% 21 Jameis Winston 1.68% 22 Ryan Fitzpatrick 1.60% 23 Kirk Cousins 1.47% 24 Matt Ryan 1.47% 25 Brock Osweiler 1.45% 26 Brian Hoyer 1.36% 27 Matthew Stafford 1.35% 28 Teddy Bridgewater 1.34% 29 Philip Rivers 1.21% 30 Matt Hasselbeck 1.17% 31 Marcus Mariota 1.08% 32 Aaron Rodgers 1.05% 33 Andrew Luck 1.02% 34 Joe Flacco 0.97% It's so obvious that your contention is unfounded that I didn't even care to make this list look pretty. Tenth, ahead of pass-crazy Drew Brees, cannon-armed Jay Cutler, secondary surgeon Tom Brady, and sandlot specialists Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. There's a lot of areas wherein I really dislike relying on statistics, but if your argument is that Smith doesn't complete deep passes, and yet acknowledging like practically everyone that Alex Smith didn't attempt many downfield passes, the frequency with which his deep pass attempts resulted in big yardage was actually fairly strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 you guys just cant help yourselves take NCC's bait..after all this time I prefer public shaming over tolerance of parroted propaganda. If you're going to make outrageous claims, you should be able to back them up. Of course, if the community lets the trolls run free, then I guess there's no point to my responses. Then again, I've never thought of NChiefsCorner as a troll. Therefore, a bit of strongly-worded reasoning seemed sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefmanzada 466 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 Perhaps he should be underthrowing his receivers more? I don't recall Smith's deep ball being unusually inaccurate by NFL standards. I did however notice that Smith rarely had opportunity to step into deep throws properly as underpowered interior linemen constantly gave up the front of the pocket. There's just too much hyperbole and stereotype and too little context in your comments on the subject. Smith has had some nice deep touch passes, and he ranked tenth in the league in rate of pass completions of 40 yards or more. 1 Ben Roethlisberger 3.62% 2 Tyrod Taylor 2.89% 3 Colin Kaepernick 2.87% 4 Andy Dalton 2.85% 5 Carson Palmer 2.79% 6 Eli Manning 2.59% 7 Sam Bradford 2.44% 8 Nick Foles 2.37% 9 Ryan Tannehill 2.22% 10 Alex Smith 2.13% 11 Peyton Manning 2.11% 12 Drew Brees 2.07% 13 Jay Cutler 2.07% 14 Josh McCown 2.05% 15 Cam Newton 2.02% 16 Tom Brady 1.92% 17 Russell Wilson 1.86% 18 Blake Bortles 1.82% 19 Blaine Gabbert 1.77% 20 Derek Carr 1.75% 21 Jameis Winston 1.68% 22 Ryan Fitzpatrick 1.60% 23 Kirk Cousins 1.47% 24 Matt Ryan 1.47% 25 Brock Osweiler 1.45% 26 Brian Hoyer 1.36% 27 Matthew Stafford 1.35% 28 Teddy Bridgewater 1.34% 29 Philip Rivers 1.21% 30 Matt Hasselbeck 1.17% 31 Marcus Mariota 1.08% 32 Aaron Rodgers 1.05% 33 Andrew Luck 1.02% 34 Joe Flacco 0.97% It's so obvious that your contention is unfounded that I didn't even care to make this list look pretty. Tenth, ahead of pass-crazy Drew Brees, cannon-armed Jay Cutler, secondary surgeon Tom Brady, and sandlot specialists Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. There's a lot of areas wherein I really dislike relying on statistics, but if your argument is that Smith doesn't complete deep passes, and yet acknowledging like practically everyone that Alex Smith didn't attempt many downfield passes, the frequency with which his deep pass attempts resulted in big yardage was actually fairly strong. It's like watching that Simpsons episode where Lisa was a baseball manager and made every move based on calculated risks and probabilities based off previous instances where eventually, unlike you, she realized that baseball is a sport and cannot be graphically understood from statistics. Asks for your list, I do indeed in the least care for it let alone look at it so don't worry about making it look pretty. Relax on your accusations of me exaggerating the truth. I am discussing what I see with my own eyes and you can argue all day and pull up random numbers but that won't defeat the fact that he CANNOT throw the deep ball. He's too inaccurate as in he can not place the ball into receivers hands so perfectly like Montana Brady Manning etc. like he often tries to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 Relax on your accusations of me exaggerating the truth. I am discussing what I see with my own eyes and you can argue all day and pull up random numbers but that won't defeat the fact that he CANNOT throw the deep ball. He's too inaccurate as in he can not place the ball into receivers hands so perfectly like Montana Brady Manning etc. like he often tries to do Let me ask you, as the reasoning on this is so incredibly simple: As a rate of his total passing attempts, does Alex Smith attempt an unusually high, average, or unusually low number of deep passes relative to other NFL quarterbacks? His detractors argue that he checks down too often, while his proponents argue that he properly leverages the West Coast Offense with short throws to the right targets to open up big gains via yards after the catch. Pretty much everyone agrees that he doesn't throw deep often. Are you saying this is not the case, and that Alex Smith is burning downs on incomplete deep throws more than everyone realizes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NChiefsCorner 496 Posted August 8, 2016 Author Share Posted August 8, 2016 He doesn't throw deep often, because he doesn't have the arm for throwing the deep ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 He doesn't throw deep often, because he doesn't have the arm for throwing the deep ball. Since he "doesn't throw deep often", if he is ranked in the top ten in the league in +40-yard plays per pass attempt, and at the same time he ranked 11th in the league in the volume of pass plays of 40 yards or longer, doesn't that actually mean that mathematically he is more effective at throwing the deep ball than what is average? There are arguments where you can throw out the statistics on the basis of the "eye test", as the statistics themselves have no real correlation to success, winning, etc. You cannot however argue that someone doesn't do something when the facts show that they in fact do it, and that they do it more consistently than most others. You are not understanding what your eyes are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NChiefsCorner 496 Posted August 8, 2016 Author Share Posted August 8, 2016 It could be YAC yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 It could be YAC yards. If that's your argument, are you saying that 40 yards on a throw underneath is worth less than a 40 yard throw over the top? And are you suggesting that everyone else's +40 yard pass completions came exclusively through the air? No, you can't be saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NChiefsCorner 496 Posted August 8, 2016 Author Share Posted August 8, 2016 Your getting off the subject, the subject is does he have the arm to throw the deep routes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Okiechief1 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 Alex isn't going anywhere. Andy has loved this guy since college and tried to get him when he was in Philly. KC loses a couple games and Alex plays bad the media and the fans will try to create a QB controversy, but I would put money on it their will be no controversy in Andy's mind. Outside of the nice run he had with Chip Kelly's offense he has been average at best. At this point Foles is a nice backup but nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 Your getting off the subject, the subject is does he have the arm to throw the deep routes. You haven't disproven my original argument by producing evidence of the number of 40+ yard Alex Smith pass plays that weren't actually deep passes. Let's start there. By the way, for the sake of this argument, how far does a ball have to travel through the air before it is a "deep pass"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Calichief Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 You haven't disproven my original argument by producing evidence of the number of 40+ yard Alex Smith pass plays that weren't actually deep passes. Let's start there. By the way, for the sake of this argument, how far does a ball have to travel through the air before it is a "deep pass"? 41.2356 yards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidfriend 1,151 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 Foles was the original QB Andy wanted, and he ended up going for Alex when Chip said no on a trade, That was three years ago and I think Alex has done enough for now to warrant not being on the hot seat. Unless Smith has a pretty big slump or is hurt, Foles doesn't see the field and there is no controversy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHard 2,061 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 I would be shocked if they traded Smith. He is the most solid QB we have. Can you imagine going into the season where we want to make a run with Foles, Bray and Hogan. Never going to happen with what we have working right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefmanzada 466 Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Let me ask you, as the reasoning on this is so incredibly simple: As a rate of his total passing attempts, does Alex Smith attempt an unusually high, average, or unusually low number of deep passes relative to other NFL quarterbacks? His detractors argue that he checks down too often, while his proponents argue that he properly leverages the West Coast Offense with short throws to the right targets to open up big gains via yards after the catch. Pretty much everyone agrees that he doesn't throw deep often. Are you saying this is not the case, and that Alex Smith is burning downs on incomplete deep throws more than everyone realizes? He rarely throws deep and utilizes the west coast in a perfect manner which is why he's a great QB. He's very bright and wins game not with flash but through strategy. He understands how key turnovers are and minimizes them as much as possible, which is why we often see him overthrowing receivers. He's not an accurate deep threat and he knows this, which is why he would rather overthrow the target and cause an incompletion rather an interception. From what I have seen, I'd say he completes 50% of passes over 20 yards, and I base that from observing him in a Chiefs uniform these past 3 years. A 50/50 chance to hit a deep ball is not accurate, but he certainly has enough arm strength to put the ball in the vicinity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eraser 722 Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Currently the ranking is something like this 1. Alex Smith 2. 3. 4. Tyler Bray 5. 6. 7a. Aaron Murray 7b.. Nick Foles 9. 10. Kevin Hogan Alex Smith is so far ahead of the rest of the quarterbacks on this team it's not funny. Alex Smith lacks exposure. If he put the same stats up in a better, more aggressive offense in a more highly populated city, he would be a top ten QB, and perhaps higher. Smith did not lose that game at INDY. Smith did not lose that game at NE. The Chiefs lacked a few components, their coaching woes were exposed, and the injury bug hit at the wrong time. In both cases, Smith did not underwhelm. He was let down by those around him. I believe Foles has a chance to redeem himself. He might be back next year, but I doubt he will be in the long term plans of the Chiefs. If he is fortunate to get a few starts, and perform well enough, Foles will be packaged up, and traded away. The two guys the Chiefs have pegged are ten months apart in age. Tyler Bray, and Kevin Hogan may be the future, but Alex Smith has at least one more contract coming from the Chiefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 A 50/50 chance to hit a deep ball is not accurate, but he certainly has enough arm strength to put the ball in the vicinity I'm sure there are few quarterbacks (paired with highly talented receiving corps) that are hitting those passes a little more than 50% of the time, but is 50% on the deep ball bad? I've always understood that to be better than average. Again, this comes down to how deep "deep" is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefmanzada 466 Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 I'm sure there are few quarterbacks (paired with highly talented receiving corps) that are hitting those passes a little more than 50% of the time, but is 50% on the deep ball bad? I've always understood that to be better than average. Again, this comes down to how deep "deep" is. >25 is a deepball imo. I was hoping you would pull up the statistic of Smith's pass completion over 20 yards since you're the number guru.. However what is your opinion on the manner? Do you think he can throw the deepball? Forget what qualifies as a deepball just tell me what you think. You're too full of context sometimes not enough commentary Phatboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhataLerror 370 Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 >25 is a deepball imo. I was hoping you would pull up the statistic of Smith's pass completion over 20 yards since you're the number guru.. However what is your opinion on the manner? Do you think he can throw the deepball? Forget what qualifies as a deepball just tell me what you think. You're too full of context sometimes not enough commentary Phatboy He is physically capable of throwing a quality deep ball. I've already mentioned that his offensive line typically hasn't blocked well enough for him to step into a good deep ball (or for the routes to develop enough for the throw in the first place). A secondary issue is the persistently poor quality of his receivers. Jeremy Maclin helped a lot, both in opening up the deep ball for the Chiefs' lesser talented receivers, and in actually being able to get open deep against the other teams' best cornerbacks. I am expecting Smith's completion rate on deep passes to improve coming into 2016. I wish I could provide "yards in the air" stats. I don't have the charting data for it. All I have is what I remember seeing, and what I remember seeing was centers and guards pushed into Smith's lap any time the offense seemed poised to take a deep shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefmanzada 466 Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 He is physically capable of throwing a quality deep ball. I've already mentioned that his offensive line typically hasn't blocked well enough for him to step into a good deep ball (or for the routes to develop enough for the throw in the first place). A secondary issue is the persistently poor quality of his receivers. Jeremy Maclin helped a lot, both in opening up the deep ball for the Chiefs' lesser talented receivers, and in actually being able to get open deep against the other teams' best cornerbacks. I am expecting Smith's completion rate on deep passes to improve coming into 2016. I wish I could provide "yards in the air" stats. I don't have the charting data for it. All I have is what I remember seeing, and what I remember seeing was centers and guards pushed into Smith's lap any time the offense seemed poised to take a deep shot. Yes we have now come a long way since seeing Mike McGlynn run through the tunnel as a starter. I'm excited to see how Alex Smith will be this upcoming year with more comfort under his skin. I believe he can throw the deepball when he's relaxed, something which has been absent due to the rebuilding of the line. I have plenty of faith and hope to see it. Yes a 20 yard pass completion can be either a catch and tackle or a catch for 10 yards and run another 10 yards before being tackled so it's tough to analyze completions where the ball is actually in the air 20 yards before being caught. I have no idea where that can be found or how Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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