kcchief4lif 910 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 If you are a die-hard Chiefs fan, you probably know the ins and outs of the depth chart, where the biggest weaknesses and strengths are, and also know how other divisional opponents stack up over the next couple years. What you may not know, is that by studying the team's financial situation you can basically predict everything that will happen over the next few years. In fact, about this time last year I wrote a FanPost that predicted the following: 1. Chiefs re-sign Eric Berry, Derrick Johnson, and Tamba Hali, letting Sean Smith walk and passing the reigns to Marcus Peters and Phillip Gaines. 2. Chiefs make it a priority before the end of the year to get Jaye Howard a new contract that probably will end up similar to the Allen Bailey deal. 3. Ben Grubbs or Eric Fisher will be cut. Along with them, Mauga, Fanaika, Knile, Cooper, and Fulton will also spend their last year in KC in 2015. Bringing this up is not meant to be boastful (in fact, I missed a few of them), but more to show you that any dummy can look at cap numbers and come up with intelligent predictions based off of simple math. Now I realize that team financials might not be the most exciting topic, but it gives you a great understanding of who will stay, who will go, and how long the core players of the Chiefs will stay intact. Understanding cap figures and dead money is also essential in giving you an idea of where the Chiefs might focus their draft. This is especially true considering our current GM's draft history, who loves to spend first round picks on players expected to take over for a key player's projected departure (Dee Ford drafted as Tamba's replacement, Marcus Peters as Sean Smith's, and Chris Jones as potentially Dontari Poe's). "The Chiefs window is now!" You hear this phrase often, and usually it comes from a belief that players are hitting their prime, and the Peyton Manning's of the world are finally out of the picture. But it is important to understand the financial situation before throwing out comments that have no facts to back up what is reality. So that is what I am here to do for you. In this article, I am going to show you how the next three years look for the Chiefs, and identify just how long the window of opportunity is with the current core group of players. I will also use research that has already been done by Pro Football Reference to show you not only when each player becomes "cuttable", but also at what age their specific NFL position typically experiences a drop off in production. For the less informed fan, here are some quick definitions dumbed down that will help you understand: Dead = Dead Money= You are so overpaid at this point that we will pay you this amount to be off our roster. This money is "guaranteed" to the player and cannot be cleared from the Chiefs cap figures. Savings = (Cap-Dead Money)= What the Chiefs are actually clearing in cap space by cutting you. Drop off = Average age of regression based on position. (Source: Pro Football Reference) "Cuttable" = A made up term by me = When the Savings is enough to make a case for you to be cut. Quarterbacks, Running Backs Player Pos Age Peak Dropoff Uncuttable Thru Cuttable 2017 2017 Dead 2017 Savings 2018 2018 Dead 2018 Savings 2019 2019 Dead 2019 Savings Alex Smith QB 32 28 34 2016 2017 $16,900,000 -$7,200,000 $9,700,000 $20,600,000 -$3,600,000 $17,000,000 FA Jamaal Charles RB 29 24 30 2016 2017 $7,000,000 $0 $7,000,000 FA Spencer Ware RB 24 24 30 2016 2017 $1,158,333 -$666,667 $491,666 $2,083,334 -$333,334 $1,750,000 FA Charcandrick West RB 25 24 30 2016 2017 $1,158,333 -$666,667 $491,666 $2,083,334 -$333,334 $1,750,000 FA Situation: 8/10 Even when your QB is labeled a "game manager", the position still remains the most important to an NFL team's success. Luckily the age of regression for QBs isn't until age 34, which gives the Chiefs a few more good years from their leader. Although Alex Smith becomes "cuttable" in 2017, he realistically won't be cut until year 2018 if his production drops dramatically (and if the Chiefs draft a damn QB!). As far as RBs are concerned, the Chiefs are in a pretty damn good spot. With RBs dropping off like a rock at age 30, Jamaal Charles coincidentally has no dead cap entering the year of 2017 (when he turns 30). This means the Chiefs can save $7M in cap space next year by cutting the star back, which sadly represents the end of an era for No. 25 unless he were to take a monster pay cut. (I just teared up writing that). The good news ...Spencer Ware is locked up until 2018 under a team-friendly contract dishing out a modest $3M over the next two years. Receivers Player Pos Age Peak Dropoff Uncuttable Thru Cuttable 2017 2017 Dead 2017 Savings 2018 2018 Dead 2018 Savings 2019 2019 Dead 2019 Savings Travis Kelce TE 26 25 31 2017 2019 $5,418,400 -$7,873,600 -$2,455,200 $10,018,400 -$5,905,200 $4,113,200 $9,968,400 -$3,936,800 $6,031,600 Jeremy Maclin WR 28 26 30 2016 2018 $12,400,000 -$7,200,000 $5,200,000 $13,400,000 -$4,800,000 $8,600,000 $13,400,000 -$2,400,000 $11,000,000 Chris Conley WR 23 26 30 2016 2017 $838,108 -$356,218 $481,890 $934,360 -$178,110 $756,250 FA Tyreek Hill WR 22 26 30 2016 2017 $586,260 -$171,220 $415,040 $704,996 -$35,000 $669,996 $797,464 -$17,500 $779,964 Albert Wilson WR 24 26 30 2015 NA FA Situation: 6/10 Wide receivers, like running backs, peak early and drop off fast at age 30. This does not bode well for Jeremy Maclin, who will be owed $13.4M in his age 30 season. Luckily, the Chiefs have an out, and can cut him in 2019 for "only" a $2.4M hit. The decision to cut or keep Maclin will happen simultaneously with the decision to give Conley a second contract ...so I guess we will wait and see. As far as TEs are concerned ...don't worry ladies, you will have a few years to catch Kelce in a Chiefs uniform. He is one of just a handful of Chiefs who are a virtual lock to be on the roster thru 2018. Offensive Linemen Player Pos Age Peak Dropoff Uncuttable Thru Cuttable 2017 2017 Dead 2017 Savings 2018 2018 Dead 2018 Savings 2019 2019 Dead 2019 Savings Eric Fisher T 25 28 33 2017 2019 $9,457,977 -$18,775,000 -$9,317,023 $13,950,000 -$9,367,023 $4,582,977 $13,150,000 -$5,100,000 $8,050,000 Mitchell Schwartz T 27 28 33 2017 2019 $6,900,000 -$10,500,000 -$3,600,000 $7,700,000 -$4,200,000 $3,500,000 $8,000,000 -$2,800,000 $5,200,000 Jah Reid T 28 28 33 2016 2017 $3,625,000 -$1,550,000 $2,075,000 $3,975,000 -$775,000 $3,200,000 FA Mitch Morse C 24 28 33 2016 2018 $1,274,475 -$829,300 $445,175 $1,486,890 -$414,651 $1,072,239 FA Zach Fulton G 25 27 32 2016 2017 $724,555 -$26,055 $698,500 FA Parker Ehinger G 23 27 32 2016 2017 $699,727 -$452,183 $247,544 $789,727 -$301,456 $488,271 $880,229 -$150,729 $729,500 Laurent Duvernay Tardif G 25 27 32 2015 NA FA Situation: 8/10 By some unexpected turn of events, the future at offensive line has actually become somewhat of a strength due to the play of Eric Fisher, who like Kelce, is locked up thru 2019. And although Fisher's contract seemed a bit premature, there is an outside shot that this contract turns out to be rather team friendly with the increasing cap in the NFL. Aside from Big Fish, the Chiefs also have Schwartz, Morse, Reid, and Ehinger under contract thru 2018. This means that the core group of guys you see out there today have a strong chance at being the same squad you see out there in 2018- which is a good thing for a unit that relies on cohesiveness. Defensive Backs Player Pos Age Peak Dropoff Uncuttable Thru Cuttable 2017 2017 Dead 2017 Savings 2018 2018 Dead 2018 Savings 2019 2019 Dead 2019 Savings Marcus Peters CB 23 27 31 2018 NA $2,613,861 -$5,663,366 -$3,049,505 $3,049,505 -$3,049,505 $0 FA Ron Parker S 29 26 30 2016 2018 $5,250,000 -$3,000,000 $2,250,000 $7,000,000 -$2,000,000 $5,000,000 $7,500,000 -$1,000,000 $6,500,000 Phillip Gaines CB 25 27 31 2016 2017 $855,778 -$137,278 $718,500 FA Steven Nelson CB 23 27 31 2016 2017 $773,988 -$290,976 $483,012 $865,488 -$145,488 $720,000 FA Eric Murray CB 22 27 31 2016 2017 $698,950 -$449,853 $249,097 $788,950 -$299,903 $489,047 $879,453 -$149,953 $729,500 D.J. White CB 23 27 31 2016 2017 $588,253 -$117,760 $470,493 $678,253 -$78,507 $599,746 $768,754 -$39,254 $729,500 Eric Berry S 27 26 30 2015 NA FA Situation: 7/10 This position is tough to grade, because it all depends on what the Chiefs choose to do with Eric Berry. My gut tells me that the Chiefs will get something worked out, which likely means that Dontari Poe hits the free agent market this offseason. If they do choose to let Eric Berry walk, they better damn well be ready to target a safety in the draft at a position who peaks early on in their NFL career. And although the safety position relies on an offseason move, the CB position seems to be pretty well off thanks to Marcus effing Peters and his performance on his rookie contract. It will be interesting to see what the Chiefs do with Gaines who continues to have injury issues and becomes a FA in 2018. I think one of two things happens: 1. Gaines continues to be a solid No. 2 CB and the Chiefs reward him with a second contract, or 2. Steven Nelson continues to develop, giving the Chiefs the option to let Gaines go. We call this "one of those good problems" folks. Defensive Linemen Player Pos Age Peak Dropoff Uncuttable Thru Cuttable 2017 2017 Dead 2017 Savings 2018 2018 Dead 2018 Savings 2019 2019 Dead 2019 Savings Chris Jones DT 22 28 31 2017 2019 $1,416,188 -$2,757,089 -$1,340,901 $1,699,426 -$1,365,901 $333,525 $1,982,665 -$682,951 $1,299,714 Allen Bailey DE 27 26 33 2016 2018 $6,500,000 -$4,000,000 $2,500,000 $8,000,000 -$2,000,000 $6,000,000 FA Jaye Howard DT 27 26 33 2016 2017 $6,500,000 -$2,500,000 $4,000,000 FA Dontari Poe DT 26 28 31 2015 NA FA Situation: 7/10 Once again, this is another unit that relies on an offseason move in order to appropriately grade them. Dontari Poe is definitely their best player, but he might just demand a monster contract in free aency. As mentioned earlier, I think Poe might just be let go if Chris Jones is a legit NFL starter this year. With recent news coming out that Allen Bailey might miss the season, one positive spin on this news is that we will see a lot more of big Chris. This gives the Chiefs management more time to grade his performance and make a big time decision that will decide who is a part of this unit's future. Linebackers Player Pos Age Peak Dropoff Uncuttable Thru Cuttable 2017 2017 Dead 2017 Savings 2018 2018 Dead 2018 Savings 2019 2019 Dead 2019 Savings Justin Houston OLB 27 25 28 2017 2019 $22,100,000 -$25,050,000 -$2,950,000 $20,600,000 -$12,700,000 $7,900,000 $21,100,000 -$7,100,000 $14,000,000 Tamba Hali OLB 32 25 28 2017 2018 $8,583,333 -$8,916,667 -$333,334 $8,583,334 -$1,583,334 $7,000,000 FA Derrick Johnson ILB 33 26 29 2016 2018 $7,750,000 -$6,500,000 $1,250,000 $9,750,000 -$1,750,000 $8,000,000 FA Josh Mauga ILB 29 26 29 2016 2017 $3,750,000 -$750,000 $3,000,000 FA Dee Ford OLB 25 25 28 2016 2017 $2,595,968 -$1,063,400 $1,532,568 FA Frank Zombo OLB 29 25 28 2016 2017 $1,256,666 -$333,334 $923,332 $1,276,668 -$166,668 $1,110,000 FA Justin March ILB 23 26 29 2016 2017 $543,334 -$3,334 $540,000 FA Situation: 5/10 After a 22 sack season and drafting Dee Ford with the 23rd overall pick in 2014, it seemed as if the Chiefs had an embarrassment of riches at OLB. Fast forward two years and OLB is surprisingly one of their biggest weaknesses. The Chiefs overall have done a good job of drafting players to back up the vets, but linebacker is one area where there are no real studs under the age of 27. I love Justin Houston as much as anyone, but he is the only difference maker that we can expect to play at a high level over the next three years - which is why I grade this situation as the worst on the team. With that in mind, I fully expect to see the Chiefs finally accept that at some point DJ's production might drop (crazy to think, I know), and load up on backers in this year's draft. The Bottom Line GM John Dorsey has done a solid job of keeping his core players intact while also drafting quality players at positions of need. That being said, without spending a top pick on QB, the Chiefs will still go as far as Alex Smith takes them over the next couple years. Of the core players, those that have the biggest decisions to be made on are: Dontari Poe, Jamaal Charles, and obviously Eric Berry. If the Chiefs do end up parting ways with Jamaal Charles, the $7M of cap space created would allow them to sign at a minimum either Berry or Poe. Depending on how much Poe will be asking for, the smart football move is to re-sign Poe to a reasonable contract as he is still in his prime, while letting Berry walk and get top-dollar safety money elsewhere. And although that might be the smart football move, my heart is telling me that they go the other way, and lock up Berry to a four year contract while letting Poe hit the free agent market. The depth at DL is the main reason that this move would make sense, and this alleviates the need to fill a void at safety in April. As far as the upcoming draft goes, it seems like LB, Safety, QB, and WR are the positions that Dorsey needs to get younger at. 2017 will be the perfect time to take a shot at finding the new franchise QB, although nothing in our history suggests that will happen. With at least two more good years of Alex Smith and stars Houston and Peters still in their prime, the Chiefs remain in position to be contenders in the AFC West until 2019. And with Tom Brady's expected regression and Big Ben's body taking a toll, this AFC West contender might just turn into Super Bowl contender if the cards fall into place. Dorsey, it's on you for the rest. http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/10/19/13331692/a-look-ahead-thru-2019-and-the-chiefs-window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer 8,686 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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