If Chiefs lose next 3, they'll make the playoffs IF ...

[andysredflag 7]

The Chiefs could lose their next three games and make the playoffs in the following scenarios: 

 

PLAYOFF SCENARIO #1

 

1) the Broncos lose to either the Patriots or Raiders; and

 

2) the Ravens finish 2nd in the division.

 

PLAYOFF SCENARIO #2 

 

1) The Dolphins lose two of three (vs Jets, Bills, Patriots); and 

 

2) the Ravens finish 2nd in the division OR the Broncos lose to either the Patriots or Raiders

 

PLAYOFF SCENARIO #3 

 

1) The Dolphins lose two of three OR the Ravens finish 2nd in the division; and 

 

2) the Raiders lose three straight to the Chargers, Colts and Broncos. 

 

Notes: 

 

The Steelers would beat the Chiefs via head-to-head tiebreaker if both finished 10-6.

 

The Dolphins would beat the Chiefs on tiebreakers (common opponents, minimum of 4) if both finished 10-6

[andysredflag 7]

The easiest path to the playoffs: Win a game. The Chiefs will clinch with a win against any of its remaining opponents. 

 

(The 2nd-place team in the AFC North can finish no better than 10-6; the 2nd-place team in the AFC South can finish no better than 9-7; the Dolphins would be the #5 seed based on common opponents tiebreaker with the Chiefs at 11-5; and the Chiefs would own the tiebreaker over the Broncos if both finished 11-5 for the #6 seed.) 

[jetlord 10,209]

If the Chiefs lose the next three games, they don't deserve a playoff spot.  That isn't going to happen unless even more injuries pop up.  Denver is in the worst shape assuming KC and OAK each win at least one more.  MIA plays the Jets and DEN plays NE, KC, and OAK, three teams with a total of 30 wins and 8 losses pending Monday night's game.  Only good news for the Donks is that Tannahill got dinged.

[DefensiveMan 758]

We win next 3. 

[andysredflag 7]

The most interesting scenario, which is also a very realistic scenario, would be the Chiefs winning the AFC West and the #2 seed overall at 11-5. It would be only the second time since realignment in 2002 that the #2 seed went to a team with an 11-5 record. Here's how it happens:

 

1. Chiefs lose two of final three games (vs Titans, vs Broncos, at Chargers)

 

2. Raiders lose two of three final games (at Chargers, vs Colts, at Broncos)

 

3. Ravens lose one of final four games (at Patriots, vs Eagles, at Steelers, at Bengals)

 

4. Steelers lose one of final three games (at Bengals, vs Ravens, vs Browns)

 

Notes: 

 

Chiefs beat Broncos for #2 seed on tiebreaker if both finish 11-5.

 

Chiefs beat Dolphins for #2 seed if both finish 11-5 by virtue of being division champion.

[andysredflag 7]

If the Chiefs win 2 of 3 to get to 12-4, they'll secure the #2 seed if:

 

1. The Raiders lose ONE game.

 

2. The Steelers and Ravens each lose ONE game. 

[andysredflag 7]

If the Chiefs lose the next three games, they don't deserve a playoff spot.  

 

I've never understood this logic. Based on likely point spreads, the Chiefs will have roughly:

 

--67% chance of beating the Titans

--60% chance of beating the Broncos

--55% chance of beating the Chargers

 

The odds are overwhelmingly in their favor (only 5-8% chance of losing all three), but it's not impossible for them to drop three straight. Both the Titans and Broncos are above .500 teams and will be desperate for wins, with their seasons on the line, and the Chargers have proven to be a solid team despite their record. IF the Chiefs were to slip up vs the Titans, there's a 1-in-4 chance they'd drop their final two games to Denver and San Diego.

 

Likely? No. Impossible? No. 

 

Just as you could argue the Chiefs were lucky to win three of four vs the Panthers, Falcons and Broncos, they could fall victim to the same kind of luck in the remaining games. And I think if they lose three straight, they're STILL deserving of a playoff spot. They would be deserving of a spot over either the Ravens or Steelers, who have had far easier schedules by comparison (both got to play the Browns twice), and they'd be deserving over any AFC South team that got in, for the same reason.

 

The Chiefs have beaten both Super Bowl participants. They beat the Raiders twice. They beat the Falcons, who lead the NFC South. Their resume is as strong or stronger than just about any team in the league, AFC or NFC, and they're 10-3 despite playing one of the tougher schedules in the league. 

[jetlord 10,209]

I've never understood this logic. Based on likely point spreads, the Chiefs will have roughly:

 

--67% chance of beating the Titans

--60% chance of beating the Broncos

--55% chance of beating the Chargers

 

The odds are overwhelmingly in their favor (only 5-8% chance of losing all three), but it's not impossible for them to drop three straight. Both the Titans and Broncos are above .500 teams and will be desperate for wins, with their seasons on the line, and the Chargers have proven to be a solid team despite their record. IF the Chiefs were to slip up vs the Titans, there's a 1-in-4 chance they'd drop their final two games to Denver and San Diego.

 

Likely? No. Impossible? No. 

 

Just as you could argue the Chiefs were lucky to win three of four vs the Panthers, Falcons and Broncos, they could fall victim to the same kind of luck in the remaining games. And I think if they lose three straight, they're STILL deserving of a playoff spot. They would be deserving of a spot over either the Ravens or Steelers, who have had far easier schedules by comparison (both got to play the Browns twice), and they'd be deserving over any AFC South team that got in, for the same reason.

 

The Chiefs have beaten both Super Bowl participants. They beat the Raiders twice. They beat the Falcons, who lead the NFC South. Their resume is as strong or stronger than just about any team in the league, AFC or NFC, and they're 10-3 despite playing one of the tougher schedules in the league. 

Point taken, but it would be hard to get excited about going in as a wildcard on a three game losing streak.  Don't get me wrong, I'm happy they will make the playoffs under any scenario, but they need to stay on a roll, especially with all the injuries.

[DefensiveMan 758]

Appreciate the info Andy; but just not liking the title of this thread.

[SEMO 6,811]

Phins just lost Tannehill for the season (ACL). They're done.

[andysredflag 7]

Point taken, but it would be hard to get excited about going in as a wildcard on a three game losing streak.  Don't get me wrong, I'm happy they will make the playoffs under any scenario, but they need to stay on a roll, especially with all the injuries.

 

You just reminded me of Herm's press conference the Monday after the Chiefs "backed into the playoffs" in 2006: 

 

Angrier than he'd ever appeared when addressing the Kansas City media, Herman Edwards lashed out Monday at anybody who says his Chiefs lucked into the playoffs.

 

"Let's don't get this thing twisted and think we backed into this deal," he said, eyes flashing. "We didn't lose. We won. We won the game we were supposed to win. Those other teams played at home. They didn't win," Edwards said. "That's not our fault. All we can do is win, and we did that and that's why we're in the playoffs, to be quite honest. We won enough games to get in the playoffs. It's very simple. Twenty teams are packing up today. We're not one of those 20. I don't want to hear about luck. I hear a lot of things about how we lucked into it, and how we did this," he said. "You know what? If we don't get in, if we don't win, and those other teams do, you know what they'll say? You didn't win. And this team deserves it. After everything they went through ... they won their way into the playoffs, period."

[jetlord 10,209]

Phins just lost Tannehill for the season (ACL). They're done.

They just drove for the winning score without Tannehill.  Sure, it's going to be tough, but they may still have enough to beat out the Donks.

[jetlord 10,209]

You just reminded me of Herm's press conference the Monday after the Chiefs "backed into the playoffs" in 2006: 

 

Angrier than he'd ever appeared when addressing the Kansas City media, Herman Edwards lashed out Monday at anybody who says his Chiefs lucked into the playoffs.

 

"Let's don't get this thing twisted and think we backed into this deal," he said, eyes flashing. "We didn't lose. We won. We won the game we were supposed to win. Those other teams played at home. They didn't win," Edwards said. "That's not our fault. All we can do is win, and we did that and that's why we're in the playoffs, to be quite honest. We won enough games to get in the playoffs. It's very simple. Twenty teams are packing up today. We're not one of those 20. I don't want to hear about luck. I hear a lot of things about how we lucked into it, and how we did this," he said. "You know what? If we don't get in, if we don't win, and those other teams do, you know what they'll say? You didn't win. And this team deserves it. After everything they went through ... they won their way into the playoffs, period."

Hey, I'm not disagreeing with you, the Chiefs won most of their games and they all count.  But, just remember how the playoff game turned out that year.

[DefensiveMan 758]

They just drove for the winning score without Tannehill.  Sure, it's going to be tough, but they may still have enough to beat out the Donks.

 

I just hope they have enough to give the Pats fits week 17.

[andysredflag 7]

Hey, I'm not disagreeing with you, the Chiefs won most of their games and they all count.  But, just remember how the playoff game turned out that year.

 

If the Chiefs are the Wild Card team, they'll likely play the Texans or Titans. Neither of those teams are quarterbacked by Peyton Manning. 

[West 6,714]

Thanks Andy...

 

I think it is safe to say that the Chiefs should win the AFC West.

 

w

[DefensiveMan 758]

Thanks Andy...

 

I think it is safe to say that the Chiefs should win the AFC West.

 

w

[dhitter 1,424]

We win next 3. 

I said a couple weeks ago that if we beat Atlanta I thought KC would run the table. Nothing has changed in my mind.

[eraser 722]

If the Chiefs win their game Sunday against the Titans, they are in the playoffs. If they win their next two following the Titan win, they will have a bye week.

[jetlord 10,209]

It's likely that the Raiders will lose another game, most likely at Denver.  The Donks will be fighting for a wildcard and playing at home.  So if the Chiefs win Sunday and win at SAN week 17, they have an excellent chance for a bye.  Here's where it gets fun.  If PIT gets the #3 seed, they'll play DEN, BAL, or MIA in all probability.  OAK would get HOU or TENN and have a good chance to win, even on the road.  So the next round could be OAK at NE and PIT at KC.  One thing I would hate to see is a third game against a divisional rival in the playoffs.  Beating the same team three times in a season just isn't that easy.  Of course, this will all go out the window when a few upsets happen as they always do.

[JPPT1974 21]

They are going to be in the playoffs. But it is about getting home field advantage. First and foremost.