QB Prospects for 2017 Draft

[KC Warpaint 3,238]

By Charlie Campbell.

WalterFootball.com

 

The top 2017 quarterback prospects available for the 2017 NFL Draft.

 

DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame
Height: 6-4. Weight: 230.
Projected 40 Time: 4.73.
Projected Round (2017): 1.
1/9/17: In this analyst's opinion, Kizer is the top quarterback prospect for the 2017 NFL Draft. He has a better physical skill set than either Mitch Trubisky or Deshaun Watson. Some league sources have told me they think Kizer will be a high first-rounder, though others are not enthusiastic about Kizer. Still, he's expected to go early in Round 1 and has announced he will enter the 2017 NFL Draft. One playoff general manager told me Kizer has the tools to be the prototypical quarterback prospect but never seems to put everything together and doesn't win.

Kizer is capable of making beautiful touch passes with superb accuracy and ball placement while being under fire from the pass rush. His field vision is very good as he moves his eyes through his progressions, even with defenders bearing down on him. Additionally, Kizer has the arm strength to make all the throws and beat good coverage. He consistently shows the ability to drop in accurate touch passes downfield and the mobility to make plays with his feet. Kizer is an excellent pocket passer.

Kizer had a rough game against N.C. State while playing in a downpour from Hurricane Matthew. He started this year with a tremendous game against Texas and gave evidence to NFL teams that he could be a future franchise quarterback. Kizer lofted in some beautiful passes between defenders against the Longhorns. Kizer also showed excellent decision-making while maintaing poise under the pass rush of Texas. He protected the football and made extraordinary passes into small openings. Kizer also was impressive in leading a near-comeback against Michigan State in which he made many similar throws. Kizer had another quality game against Miami.

In 2016, Kizer completed 59 percent of his passes for 2,925 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ran for seven touchdowns. Kizer completed 63 percent of his passes in 2015 for 2,884 yards with 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also ran for 520 yards with 10 scores on the ground.

 

Mitch Trubisky*, QB, North Carolina
Height: 6-3. Weight: 220.
Projected 40 Time: 4.77.
Projected Round (2017): 1-2.
1/9/17: Trubisky has more of a second-round-caliber skill set, but that doesn't preclude teams from reaching on him in the first round. Teams have had second-day grades on many quarterbacks who ended up going as top-32 picks. Sources from three different teams told me they graded Trubisky in Round 2, but he received a first-round estimation from the NFL Draft Advisory Board. The consensus belief around the league is that Trubisky will enter the 2017 NFL Draft. One playoff general manager told WalterFootball.com that he rates Trubisky higher than DeShone Kizer because Trubisky has the tools to play with accuracy and athleticism, and he wins games while Kizer's team was sub .500.

Trubisky was very efficient in 2016, displaying good decision-making and accuracy. The junior beat up on some weak secondaries this year, but it still is impressive that he had three straight games throwing for over 400 yards without throwing a single interception. Trubisky was impressive against Florida State and Pittsburgh before an ugly game against Virginia Tech. On the season, Trubisky completed 69 percent of his passes for 3,748 yards with 30 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also scored three rushing touchdowns. Trubisky (6-3, 220) was a backup as a sophomore and freshman.

 

 

Pat Mahomes*, QB, Texas Tech
Height: 6-3. Weight: 219.
Projected 40 Time: 4.68.
Projected Round (2017): 1-3.
1/9/17: WalterFootball.com was the first to report that Mahomes was planning on entering the 2017 NFL Draft, and he announced that in early January. Mahomes is seeking out experienced NFL quarterback coaches to help him develop for his rookie season. Mahomes completed 66 percent of his passes in 2016 for 5,052 yards with 41 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also rushed for 12 touchdowns.

Some team sources are intrigued by Mahomes, but others are skeptics. Mahomes has a good arm and has flashed the ability to be a pocket passer. He also has athleticism with enough mobility to buy time and pick up some yards on the ground. Mahomes is a sleeper who could be a steal.

One playoff team told me they have a second-round grade on Mahomes and compare him to Derek Carr coming out of Fresno State. Two other teams said they had Mahomes in the third round, while one playoff general manager said he had him in Round 4. There is love/hate with Mahomes in part because of his college offense, but Mahomes is an accurate passer with a good arm, bulk, flashes of field vision, and mobility.

7/29/16: Mahomes plays in a gimmick college offense that produces a lot of points, but Mahomes has shown potential to get NFL consideration. In 2015, he completed 64 percent for 4,653 yards with 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. It was a big improvement over his freshman season when he completed 57 percent of his passes for 1,547 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions.

 

Deshaun Watson*, QB, Clemson
Height: 6-2. Weight: 205.
Projected 40 Time: 4.60.
Projected Round (2017): 1-4.
1/9/17: I surveyed teams around the league to see where their initial draft grades were for Watson. Two playoff teams told me they had third-round grades on Watson. One said it was on the low end as a third- to fourth-rounder. Another playoff team told Walt that they had a third-round grade on Watson. Two other teams said they had second-round grades on Watson. Another team thought that Watson still could be a late first-round quarterback, similar to Teddy Bridgewater, because of the dire need at the position across the NFL.

In this draft analyst's opinion, I would grade Watson as a third-round pick for the 2017 NFL Draft. Watson has been off with his accuracy this year, displaying poor ball placement, especially when going downfield. He has missed a lot of potential touchdowns as a result. Watson's performance against Louisville confirmed the accuracy and ball-placement problems we've seen all season. He hasn't dominated, and his play is not that of a top quarterback prospect. All of this illustrates that Watson still has room for improvement with his field vision, ball placement, and accuracy. He did finish the regular season playing better, but that doesn't make up for the struggles in the first two-thirds of the season.

Also, Watson is undersized compared to your average NFL starting quarterback. On top of that, he plays in a college spread offense that doesn't correlate well to the NFL. Thus, he's going to need to learn working under center, operating the huddle, footwork, and not being a running quarterback. There is no doubt that Watson has great intangibles as a hard worker with good character off the field and leadership in the locker room.

So far in 2016, Watson has completed 67 percent of his passes for 4,173 yards with 38 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He has eight rushing touchdowns as well.

7/29/16: Watson played really well to lead Clemson to the National Championship game, and in that title tilt, he threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns against an Alabama defense that featured tons of future NFL talent. Watson completed 68 percent of his passes in 2015 for 4,104 yards with 35 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. On the ground, he averaged 5.3 yards per carry for 1,105 yards with 12 scores.

Watson has a decent arm, excellent athleticism, and can show some superb accuracy. However, he is undersized and doesn't play in a pro-style offense. His numbers are vastly inflated by his college offense. Operating under center will be one thing for him to learn. Watson also has to improve his field vision. He flashes good field vision to work through his progressions on some plays, but he is inconsistent and he can also look to run too soon. Watson won't be able to run as much in the NFL and he needs to get faster at working through his progressions. His pocket-passing process has to get quicker as well.

 

Davis Webb, QB, California
Height: 6-5. Weight: 230.
Projected 40 Time: 4.78.
Projected Round (2017): 2-3.
1/9/17: In 2016, Webb completed 62 percent of his passes for 4,295 yards with 37 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. There is some buzz about him in the scouting community as Webb has a good arm with pocket presence and flashes good field vision. He can also make some pretty throws downfield and fit the ball into tight windows. However, he will have some of the same developmental problems for the NFL as Jared Goff with having to learn working under center, operating a huddle, and developing the footwork.

Webb also suffers from poor decision-making. He needs to do a better job of working through his progressions as he far too often pre-determines where he is going with the ball and stares down some reads. Webb should start out his NFL career as a backup, but he has the physical potential to develop into a starter.

9/3/16: Webb is taking over the Bear Raid offense with Jared Goff in the NFL. Previously, Webb played at Texas Tech in a similar college gimmick offense. He barely played in 2015, but started the previous two years. In 2014 he completed 61 percent of his passes for 2,539 yards with 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The previous season he completed 63 percent of his passes for 2,718 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine picks.

 

Jerod Evans*, QB, Virginia Tech
Height: 6-4. Weight: 235.
Projected 40 Time: 4.70.
Projected Round (2017): 2-4.
1/9/17: Evans was a surprise early entry into the 2017 NFL Draft. After only one year as the starter for the Hokies, many thought Evans would return to Virginia Tech. The junior completed 64 percent of his passes in 2016 for 3,552 yards with 29 touchdowns and eight touchdowns. He also ran for 12 touchdowns. Evans has a good skill set with size and athleticism. Coming from a college system with a lack of experience, Evans is going to need some development for the NFL.

 

Brad Kaaya*, QB, Miami
Height: 6-4. Weight: 209.
Projected 40 Time: 4.82.
Projected Round (2017): 3-5.
1/9/17: One general manager of a playoff team that is very skilled at quarterback evaluation said they had Kaaya as fifth-round pick. They feel he has no mobility, can't throw well while under pressure, and while his arm is decent, he doesn't blow them away. Two other teams said they graded Kaaya as a late third-, early fourth-rounder. Multiple teams also expressed that they have concerns about Kaaya lacking leadership.

In 2016, Kaaya completed 62 percent of his passes for 3,532 yards with 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He, specifically, put together underwhelming performances in losses to Florida State and North Carolina. Kaaya has some crippling weaknesses in looking down at the rush and a lack of mobility to avoid sacks. He takes a lot of sacks, and his eyes don't stay downfield when under pressure.

Kaaya's game against Appalachian State illustrated that he has serious pocket-passing talent for the NFL though. His protection was an issue in other outings, but when Kaaya is given time, he's deadly. Kaaya showed that he has a big arm, pocket presence, is accurate in tight windows, can throw perfect touch passes, and has field vision to work through his protections. The problem is he has to be able to thrive without a perfect pocket to throw from, which puts too much pressure on his offensive line to be flawless.

7/29/16: 2015 was a rough year for Miami and Kaaya had to battle through with a weak supporting cast. He completed 61 percent of his passes for 3,242 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season. Kaaya didn't develop significantly over his freshman-year performance.

Kaaya has a good physical skill set with a strong arm that can make all the throws. At times, he has displayed some pocket-passing ability to go along with poise. In 2014, Kaaya completed 59 percent of his passes for 3,198 yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Kaaya had a ton of talent around him as a freshman in the form of a stud left tackle (Ereck Flowers), wide receiver (Phillip Dorsett) and running back (Duke Johnson).

 

Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss
Height: 6-2. Weight: 215.
Projected 40 Time: 4.75.
Projected Round (2017): 4-6.
1/9/17: A torn ACL ended Kelly's 2016 season early, and given the timing of the injury, he won't be able to work out completely for NFL teams prior to the 2017 NFL Draft. Kelly will attend the 2017 NFL Scouting Combine surely, but won't be able to do all the drills. His team interviews will be critical as he is going to get grilled about his off-the-field antics.

Kelly completed 63 percent of his passes in 2016 for 2,758 yards with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions. In losses to Alabama and Florida State where Ole Miss blew big leads, Kelly had terrible turnovers via bad decisions in crunch time, which made the comebacks possible.

Overall, Kelly's performances this season confirm his gun-slinger style of play. He has the arm to make any throw, but could stand to get more consistent in his field vision, accuracy and decision-making. While Kelly can't be blamed for his defense struggling in allowing comebacks to Florida State and Alabama, Kelly doesn't show the leadership and intangibles to push his team to tough victories. He doesn't have a killer instinct and gets rattled by pressure; both the physical pass rush and the mental/emotional pressure of critical moments in big games.

Kelly also needs to check his ego and clean up his off-the-field issues, too. He has had problems such as yelling at Clemson fans - while a Clemson student - in the stadium parking lot after a fender bender, getting arrested for a bar fight that involved threatening a mass shooting, running onto the field at his brother's high school game, trash-talking teammates on twitter, pursuing porn stars on twitter, creating a self-loving rap song; the list goes on with "Swag" Kelly. Being the nephew of Jim Kelly seems to have created an "Affluenza" quarterback.

When you add in the off-the-field issues from Kelly's ego and behavior, it adds to the questions about his on-field intangibles and ability to lead a team. He has a big arm, but I don't think he has the decision-making and steadiness in his play to be a franchise quarterback. Kelly doesn't strike me as a winner.

7/29/16: Kelly showed development late in the 2015 season and was playing well for Ole Miss. For the year, he completed 65 percent of his passes for 4,042 yards with 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He also ran for 500 yards and 10 touchdowns. It was Kelly's first season starting for the Rebels.

Kelly has a powerful arm with some athleticism. He needs to improve his field vision and decision-making as he throws risky passes downfield too often rather than taking easy completions underneath.

Prior to 2015, Kelly played in the junior college ranks for a year, where he won a National Championship. Kelly started out his collegiate career at Clemson, but didn't last long as Dabo Swinney kicked him off the team "for conduct detrimental to the program." Kelly is the nephew of Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly. Chad Kelly's ego and behavior led to his undoing at Clemson.

[oldtimer 8,694]

I'm a big ND fan and watched plenty of games. If Kizer is the #1 option.. man o man

[BroncoStud 3,253]

It's a REALLY bad year for QBs...  Kizer is the most overrated prospect in the draft, he just isn't consistent and doesn't move the football like a top pick should.  Maybe someone is a sleeper who will be surprisingly good, but this isn't the year I would be looking for the future at that position.  In my opinion it is Deshaun Watson and no one else.  Watson is the only guy that makes plays on a consistent basis.  Some of these guys are more of a detriment to their teams when the pressure is on than a benefit, and shouldn't even be going pro.

[Calichief 3,017]

It's a REALLY bad year for QBs... Kizer is the most overrated prospect in the draft, he just isn't consistent and doesn't move the football like a top pick should. Maybe someone is a sleeper who will be surprisingly good, but this isn't the year I would be looking for the future at that position. In my opinion it is Deshaun Watson and no one else. Watson is the only guy that makes plays on a consistent basis. Some of these guys are more of a detriment to their teams when the pressure is on than a benefit, and shouldn't even be going pro.

Yep

Stuck with smith

[azchief21 5,278]

Waaaa. That's what people said about Carr & Prescott now those teams are set for years. Time to gut up or get out!

[KC Warpaint 3,238]

the good thing is none of us get to make the choice on whether we go for a QB or not, unless one of us is reid, Hunt or Dorsey under a clever pseudonym

[West 6,714]

I have been saying this as well.

 

IMO, there is no one in this years draft that is a lock.  If KC wants a Franchise QB as an upgrade to Alex Smith...We gotta go get one.

 

People bitch and moan about "retreads" but that's all we are going to get.

 

BTW, Smith and Foles are retreads...

w

[azchief21 5,278]

the good thing is none of us get to make the choice on whether we go for a QB or not, unless one of us is reid, Hunt or Dorsey under a clever pseudonym

We only get to pay our money and watch as our team won as many playoff games as CLE this year.

[azchief21 5,278]

I have been saying this as well.

 

IMO, there is no one in this years draft that is a lock.  If KC wants a Franchise QB as an upgrade to Alex Smith...We gotta go get one.

 

People bitch and moan about "retreads" but that's all we are going to get.

 

BTW, Smith and Foles are retreads...

w

Why are retreads all we are going to get? Yes Foles is a retread too. He just hasn't had a real chance with all the talent we have on this team. After 4 years we know what retread Smith brings. 

[West 6,714]

By definition as established by someone else on a different thread.

 

If KC can finagle a deal to get Drew Brees, Philip Rivers I think we look very hard.

 

For the record, if KC decides to keep Foles, he should be able to compete for the starting job.

 

w

[oldtimer 8,694]

By definition as established by someone else on a different thread.

 

If KC can finagle a deal to get Drew Brees, Philip Rivers I think we look very hard.

 

For the record, if KC decides to keep Foles, he should be able to compete for the starting job.

 

w

 

if they keep Foles smith is not in the picture

[liquidfriend 1,151]

I have been saying this as well.

 

IMO, there is no one in this years draft that is a lock.  If KC wants a Franchise QB as an upgrade to Alex Smith...We gotta go get one.

 

People bitch and moan about "retreads" but that's all we are going to get.

 

BTW, Smith and Foles are retreads...

w

The Chiefs are in football purgatory. If there was a sure thing QB coming out, they will never have a shot at them.

 

That's why the Chiefs will have to roll the dice and keep rolling until they land a hit.

 

If I were going to roll, I'd chance it with Davis Webb on Friday.

[West 6,714]

I agree....The drafts have been good lately for Dorsey.

 

They should take a shot at a QB.

 

w

[Calichief 3,017]

By definition as established by someone else on a different thread.

 

If KC can finagle a deal to get Drew Brees, Philip Rivers I think we look very hard.

 

For the record, if KC decides to keep Foles, he should be able to compete for the starting job.

 

w

That's what I'm saying west, foles has more upside than Alex. He should get a chance.

[NChiefsCorner 496]

I think the Chiefs let Smith go and role with Foles next year.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

I actually don't think the Chiefs will need to release Alex. I agree that if you're looking for a sure thing at QB or a guy that can immediately start and win, you're gonna hate this class.

 

I look at the Bears and Jets and think at least you'd get the Bears to have interest. John Fox is on his 3rd team in 5 years, has had one of the shittiest records since joining the Bears and is certainly on the hot seat. Fox is super conservative and wants a careful QB. Trading for Smith would free them to draft an excellent LT in a shitty tackle class.

 

Makes too much sense, and I will put this in my next mock.

 

Trading Alex would bring 9.7 million in cap space and they could get Foles for around 8, which would provide another 2.75 in space vs his option figure for 17. He would take less to be a starter for Andy.

[DefensiveMan 758]

I actually don't think the Chiefs will need to release Alex. I agree that if you're looking for a sure thing at QB or a guy that can immediately start and win, you're gonna hate this class.

 

I look at the Bears and Jets and think at least you'd get the Bears to have interest. John Fox is on his 3rd team in 5 years, has had one of the shittiest records since joining the Bears and is certainly on the hot seat. Fox is super conservative and wants a careful QB. Trading for Smith would free them to draft an excellent LT in a shitty tackle class.

 

Makes too much sense, and I will put this in my next mock.

 

Trading Alex would bring 9.7 million in cap space and they could get Foles for around 8, which would provide another 2.75 in space vs his option figure for 17. He would take less to be a starter for Andy.

 

I have to believe that Andy brought Foles in for 10 mill for a specific reason. I don't see us parting ways with Foles unless they restructure him as a backup. I think he deserves a shot.

[SEMO 6,812]

Smith will not be traded.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

I think there's a possible market and if the asking price were enough, they would do it. What would be satisfactory for them? Not sure.

[DefensiveMan 758]

I think there's a possible market and if the asking price were enough, they would do it. What would be satisfactory for them? Not sure.

 

Chicago and NYJ could use an immediate QB.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

I wouldn't rule out a return to the 49ers, although they are the team that should take the draft gamble because that roster is trash and they aren't going to win immediately.

 

I wouldn't place a bet on Alex being traded, but Andy had no problems trading his former starting QB away before the bottom fell out. To a division rival, too.

[DefensiveMan 758]

McNabb's final year with the Eagles in 2009:

 

60.3 Completion %

3,553 Yards

22 TDs

10 INTs       

92.9 QBR

 

Smith's 2016 season:

 

67.1 Completion %

3,502 Yards

15 TDs

8 INTS

91.2 QBR

[eraser 722]

Alex Smith is not a Hall of Fame QB. He is middle of the road - good, and a player who won't hurt a good team. He also leaves a lot of points on the field that should be on the scoreboard.

 

I do not see a good QB in the field this spring. I may want to see the Senior Bowl to get a better idea. Pipkin is a 2 A player, who will be at the Senior Bowl. He's about as good as the other bums. If he shows up good at the Senior game, he might be worth a 6th or 7th round pick.

 

Tyrod Taylor will be released at Buffalo. If he doesn't demand much money, the Chiefs should bring him in to sit behind Smith.

[PhataLerror 370]

I wouldn't rule out a return to the 49ers, although they are the team that should take the draft gamble because that roster is trash and they aren't going to win immediately.

 

I wouldn't place a bet on Alex being traded, but Andy had no problems trading his former starting QB away before the bottom fell out. To a division rival, too.

There's not a chance Smith will go back there. He's been a first-overall pick once before, and then was traded to a team that had the first-overall pick that year. He'll retire before he'll accept that, and it's not like the Chiefs could really force his hand here.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

The people that forced him out (Baalke, Harbaugh) are gone.  His family loves the area.

 

I think he'd return.