Teams That Trade Future Picks To Fix Now

[eraser 722]

http://thebiglead.com/2014/04/22/nfl-draft-teams-that-trade-away-future-picks-pay-a-big-price/

 

The story basically says teams that trade away future picks to move up in the draft, or to gain additional selections in the present, backfires in the long run. It does not say the other apparent thing. Teams that stockpile picks by trading them to desperate teams for future considerations, do really, really well. In fact, the numbers are in, and teams such as New England benefit to the tune of 50% better.

 

Here is the story.

 

Three years ago, I wrote about Washington wanting to trade up by giving up future picks, decrying the idiocy of trading future picks in a NFL draft world where the interest rate is “one round for one year”. At the time, I wrote of Belichick:

Bill Belichick is the butterfly collar wearing pawn shop dealer standing behind the glass case of watches. Daniel Snyder is the guy that just needs that next influx of cash so he can buy some more lottery tickets and to score a hit. The last few years, the Patriots have been capitalizing on teams’ inability to have patience and to understand the market (Armanti Edwards, anyone?), and have repeatedly traded picks that net them high interest returns by delaying gratification.

I referenced Belichick’s propensity to trade for the future but hadn’t specifically looked into the details. How costly/beneficial is it to trade up and down, by paying the interest rate of (at least) one round to get an immediate extra pick now?

To analyze, I limited it to trades where (a) one team delayed gratification by getting a draft pick a year later, and ( the pick they got was at least one round higher than the pick or picks they surrendered. This removed some of the classic trading cases, such as a team moving back into the first round to take a quarterback, by giving up a future first round pick. I am confident including those cases, like Brady Quinn or Jason Campbell or J.P. Losman, would not change the conclusions much. It also removes cases, which happen frequently, where a future pick is a throw-in to a deal (such as a future 7th rounder).

So, for example, trading a future 2nd for this year’s 3rd round pick would be included in this analysis. Trading a future 7th and a 4th and 5th to get this year’s 3rd round pick would not.

26 total trades made during the 2000 to 2009 drafts were reviewed. The result? The team “delaying gratification” is getting close to a 50% return on the investment–rates that would qualify as usurious.

Using the Approximate Value numbers at Pro Football Reference, the team trading for a pick now, and giving up a better pick in the future, got 16.5 points, versus giving up 25.2 points in value. That’s a 152% rate of return by delaying a year, from the perspective of the patient team. Those actual results are similar to the hypothetical rate we get by using the draft pick value calculator, which calculated the team acquiring the future pick would get a 157% rate of return.

Here are the ten most lopsided future pick trade-ups from 2000 to 2009, with the team listed first being the team that traded for the “now” pick, and the other team in the trade listed second (though the players drafted were not always taken in the future by the same team that made the trade).

In contrast, the most lopsided trade the other direction was the Colts trading a future 4th to take Robert Mathis in the 5th round in 2003. (Glenn Earl was selected with the future pick). The only other one that could be considered a solid “win” for the impatient team trading a future pick was Chris Cooley for Josh Bullocks in 2004.

The two teams most frequently willing to trade you a pick this year for a better one in the future were New England (8) and Philadelphia (5) during this time frame, so Belichick’s reputation is valid. It should be noted that since 2000, those two franchises are among the best run organizations, and have made the playoffs 75% of the time. Being willing to delay gratification for great returns is not necessarily the reason they have done well (we are still only talking 13 cases here over a decade), but is merely one of the ways in which they demonstrate an understanding of value.

 

Perhaps my idea of trading picks to desperate teams in order to get a QBofTF is not so idiotic.

[oldtimer 8,686]

we traded up to get Tony Gonzalas

[West 6,714]

We trade back to get Chris Jones.

 

We kept the #16 slot( I think..did not look it up.) to get DJ.

 

Its a crap shoot.....I do think Dorsey is the most competent GM we have had since Carl was a young man.

 

w

[DieHard 2,061]

Yep. Depends on who falls and if anybody wants your pick, but in general I prefer to trade back.

[eraser 722]

Atlanta traded five players to the Browns to get Julio. The Browns let go of Phil Taylor (the last of their 5 draft picks) that sent the 27th pick in the draft to the 6th slot held by Cleveland.

 

I guess it matters who is dealing, and whom is being dealt to.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

Atlanta traded five players to the Browns to get Julio. The Browns let go of Phil Taylor (the last of their 5 draft picks) that sent the 27th pick in the draft to the 6th slot held by Cleveland.

 

I guess it matters who is dealing, and whom is being dealt to.

 

The Browns are football ebola.  But don't forget that the Browns traded up with KC to get Phil Taylor, for a 3rd round return, which the Chiefs used to draft Justin Houston.

[eraser 722]

The Browns are football ebola.  But don't forget that the Browns traded up with KC to get Phil Taylor, for a 3rd round return, which the Chiefs used to draft Justin Houston.

For every NE there is a Cleveland. Great point.

[WichitaZRide 321]

Another case in point...the 49ers have been stockpiling draft picks line the patriots for years now too. Like anything it's a crapshoot...traded up to get Hali, traded down to get Kevare Russell. Traded up to get Conley...win some lose some

[DefensiveMan 758]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-mock-draft-senior-bowl-produces-pair-of-first-rounders-for-ravens-chiefs/

 

Would Haason Reddick be a reach...MLB from Temple

[eraser 722]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-mock-draft-senior-bowl-produces-pair-of-first-rounders-for-ravens-chiefs/

 

Would Haason Reddick be a reach...MLB from Temple

I don't know about that... It seems to me the Chiefs have plenty of prospects for the weak side LB, and really need a bigger guy in the middle. Derrick says he is coming back, and will be ready to go by opening day. Whether that happens or not, I think the Chiefs can get a SS ILB. Kendell Beckwith is a much better fit. People have knocked Boulware for his lack of height, lack of speed, and lack of athleticism, but he tackles, and takes on blockers. He may be worth a look in the right round. Even a guy like Anzalone may drop to th 6th round, because he broke his arm. I like football players rather that track people at that position.

 

To me, Reddick is not only a reach, he is a miss.

[SEMO 6,811]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-mock-draft-senior-bowl-produces-pair-of-first-rounders-for-ravens-chiefs/

 

Would Haason Reddick be a reach...MLB from Temple

I don't think so.  He plays the run and covers well, and can rush the passer.  He is a little undersized. 

 

Cunningham is obviously my pick.  But, I don't know if he gets past Miami.  In a ideal scenario, I would take Cunningham in round 1 and the thumper McMillan in round 2.  The middle would be shored up for a long time.  I would settle for Reddick if Cunningham was gone.  But, with other needs, we can't spend our first two picks on inside backers. 

[Bilyous2 884]

we traded up to get Tony Gonzalas

Great point.  When you know someone is going to be great instead of just suspect it, it makes all the sense in the world to trade up.

[DefensiveMan 758]

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/2017-nfl-mock-draft-mitch-trubisky-heads-west-020617

 

Pat Mahomes.

[DefensiveMan 758]

Watching some of his highlights: 

 

Really reminds me of Big Ben in a way.

[eraser 722]

Mahomes is on my list. If the Chiefs take Mahomes, they had better make sure Alex Smith is around for the next three years to help tutor him. Mahomes has really bad footwork. He makes horrible throws, but he has a strong enough arm to get the ball out there off his wrong foot. He crosses over his feet. Texas Tech has an offense that exploits advantages. There are always one on one or open receivers. This offense works well against college teams, but has never worked in the NFL. The NFL defense coordinators play four dimensional chess. Most good quarterbacks leave college, having played in a pro style offense. Texas Tech does not. It will take him two to three years to adapt.

[Bilyous2 884]

Mahomes is on my list. If the Chiefs take Mahomes, they had better make sure Alex Smith is around for the next three years to help tutor him. Mahomes has really bad footwork. He makes horrible throws, but he has a strong enough arm to get the ball out there off his wrong foot. He crosses over his feet. Texas Tech has an offense that exploits advantages. There are always one on one or open receivers. This offense works well against college teams, but has never worked in the NFL. The NFL defense coordinators play four dimensional chess. Most good quarterbacks leave college, having played in a pro style offense. Texas Tech does not. It will take him two to three years to adapt.

We don't have that long.  I was reading an article about Brady, and he had horrible footwork in college, also, and he was slow.  But he always had that freakish determination and studied film relentlessly to find tiny weakness in the opponents secondary players.  Watching that Superbowl, it was so obvious that the guy is in another universe.  We are so far from that, it's depressing.

[KCSLC2008 606]

We don't have that long. I was reading an article about Brady, and he had horrible footwork in college, also, and he was slow. But he always had that freakish determination and studied film relentlessly to find tiny weakness in the opponents secondary players. Watching that Superbowl, it was so obvious that the guy is in another universe. We are so far from that, it's depressing.

Yes, we do have that long. Dorsey is a good drafter in my opinion, so the window stretches. We are young and that experience will grow, peak in a few years.

[azchief21 5,278]

Yes, we do have that long. Dorsey is a good drafter in my opinion, so the window stretches. We are young and that experience will grow, peak in a few years.

4 full years and most are still using the o line as an excuse. We have nothing at ILB. Dee Ford is good about 3 games a year depending on how weak the tackle is. And you know where I think our most glaring weakness is. He's a good drafter but we are back to being a team that can't win a playoff game. 12-4 yay!

[Bilyous2 884]

Yes, we do have that long. Dorsey is a good drafter in my opinion, so the window stretches. We are young and that experience will grow, peak in a few years.

The team is young and deep, so you have a point.  I wonder if the fan base has that long, though.  Will Dorsey leave for Green Bay or someplace with oodles of bucks next year or the next?  We don't know.  Will a new GM or coach stick with a prior regime's philosophy or find that his own best value lies with trading away or releasing pieces that don't work that well in his own system and "hoping" or "believing" that his draft "prowess" will provide the right player for their own system?

 

Good teams can come apart in a hurry.  The one common denominator is that a GREAT QB will still take almost any team to the show and win the whole thing many times.  The QB is so obviously the main determiner of a team's success.  That was so obvious on Sunday night.  Can you imagine what Brady could do with the current Chief's players?  It's mind boggling.

[oldtimer 8,686]

The team is young and deep, so you have a point.  I wonder if the fan base has that long, though.  Will Dorsey leave for Green Bay or someplace with oodles of bucks next year or the next?  We don't know.  Will a new GM or coach stick with a prior regime's philosophy or find that his own best value lies with trading away or releasing pieces that don't work that well in his own system and "hoping" or "believing" that his draft "prowess" will provide the right player for their own system?

 

Good teams can come apart in a hurry.  The one common denominator is that a GREAT QB will still take almost any team to the show and win the whole thing many times.  The QB is so obviously the main determiner of a team's success.  That was so obvious on Sunday night.  Can you imagine what Brady could do with the current Chief's players?  It's mind boggling.

 

 

YEP to the ^^^ also  a few of us might have  less time than others..we been waiting for a very long time. If it happens in our lifetime it would be nice to remember it .

[Calichief 3,016]

Chiefs will not draft a qb.

[oldtimer 8,686]

Chiefs will not draft a qb.

 

 

oh they might but not in the first 3-4 rounds

[KCSLC2008 606]

4 full years and most are still using the o line as an excuse. We have nothing at ILB. Dee Ford is good about 3 games a year depending on how weak the tackle is. And you know where I think our most glaring weakness is. He's a good drafter but we are back to being a team that can't win a playoff game. 12-4 yay!

Either the window is open right now and we don't have much time or there is no window because of who we have and therefore we rely upon a good draft of which would include a quarterback soon. I feel Dorsey will get us the players because I think he'll be good, creating a better, longer window. Or there is a window now that he can keep open through youth. Not talking about regular season vs. playoffs but rather a chance to build a team got the best future.

[azchief21 5,278]

oh they might but not in the first 3-4 rounds

Who will never see the field and will just sorta fade away. Then the AAA club can say Smith is better than what we have on the bench.

[KCSLC2008 606]

Who will never see the field and will just sorta fade away. Then the AAA club can say Smith is better than what we have on the bench.

 

 

None of us draft for Dorsey and most all of us have recommended drafting a quarterback. Most of us would advocate for someone who is better for us to play. We can't help that the professional evaluators either chose quarterbacks that weren't better, weren't ready, weren't developed, etc. Dorsey pick your guy, Reid develop him. Make a decision each year after fair evaluations and prudent opportunities.

 

I think it is Best to not be in the AAA or the ABA (Anybody But Alex). Play the best on the current team, draft the best, give everyone a fair shot, etc. As Smith gets older, other quarterbacks will get more shots.