Bold offseason predicton

[Calichief 3,016]

Chiefs cut Maclin to free up 10 million.

I have read this a few places and it makes sense. He is an ordinary receiver now.

[Okiechief1 425]

He has a dead cap of 7.2. Unless I'm missing something the savings would be a little over 5.

[PhataLerror 370]

Jeremy Maclin is the Chiefs' best receiver, and no one is close. Anyone who thinks Tyreek Hill is a legitimate WR1 is grossly uninformed about what constitutes essential WR1 skills. You need to be able to do more than be fast and get separation in man coverage.

 

Maclin had a bad year, and when you look at what he went through, the excuses to be made for him seem legitimate. Maclin is still being overpaid, but there's no one on the team that will be ready to take over his role.

 

This situation could be entirely different in 2018.

[Calichief 3,016]

Jeremy Maclin is the Chiefs' best receiver, and no one is close. Anyone who thinks Tyreek Hill is a legitimate WR1 is grossly uninformed about what constitutes essential WR1 skills. You need to be able to do more than be fast and get separation in man coverage.

 

Maclin had a bad year, and when you look at what he went through, the excuses to be made for him seem legitimate. Maclin is still being overpaid, but there's no one on the team that will be ready to take over his role.

 

This situation could be entirely different in 2018.

Well put.

[DieHard 2,061]

He is our only legit top shelf NFL WR. No way they part ways with him. Still trying find someone to pair with him. No possible way he us let go.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

Tyreek Hill is going to become the #1 WR once he understands WCO route-running better.

 

Maclin will probably have a rebound year this season, but isn't far off from a sharp decline.

[azchief21 5,278]

It would help if we threw the ball down field to Hill before we decide what kind of WR he is. We already know he can catch bubble screens.

[PhataLerror 370]

It would help if we threw the ball down field to Hill before we decide what kind of WR he is. We already know he can catch bubble screens.

And Go Routes. If you can't run most of a route tree effectively, and don't find the seams in zone coverage quickly, you aren't a starting-caliber NFL receiver. Hill is a physically talented third-stringer that depends on the contributions from the WR1 and WR2 to be most effective.

[azchief21 5,278]

And Go Routes. If you can't run most of a route tree effectively, and don't find the seams in zone coverage quickly, you aren't a starting-caliber NFL receiver. Hill is a physically talented third-stringer that depends on the contributions from the WR1 and WR2 to be most effective.

*Yawn*

[PhataLerror 370]

*Yawn*

Still waiting for your breakdown on Hill's mad skills.

 

It'll take some effort on your part. Better sleep on it.

[azchief21 5,278]

Still waiting for your breakdown on Hill's mad skills.

 

It'll take some effort on your part. Better sleep on it.

*Yawn*

[eraser 722]

Maclin had a bad season, but if you were to watch his individual play, it would be clear he is still at the top of his game. Maclin made defenders look silly. His moves, and quickness are still there. He did have a few more drops than in the past. However, the biggest issues were not having a QB willing to throw him open, or see him open, or have enough time to get the ball down field.

[eraser 722]

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/2/18/14649614/cutting-jeremy-maclin-is-an-awful-idea

 

Cutting Jeremy Maclin is an Awful Idea

129 comments

by MNchiefsfan

 

Feb 18, 2017, 10:00am CST

So every now and then I hear a take that’s so scalding hot that I can’t help but comment on it immediately. In those situations, I rarely have time to write some kind of captivating (or even coherent) introduction. Today is one of those times, so I’ll just say it:

Getting rid of Jeremy Maclin is a bad idea, and you should feel bad if that’s your idea.

“But MN, he barely had more than 500 yards receiving this year!”

Uh huh.

“But MN, he’s not fast like he used to be! He’s a possession guy only now!”

 

Hmmmm.

“Seriously, MN, he’s just not dynamic!”

Oh.

Look... I don’t know how to say this, but you’re wrong. You’re just... wrong. Did Maclin have a rough year? Yes. Was he clearly struggling mentally early in the season after some personal tragedy struck? Yes. Did he then suffer a groin injury that lingered for quite some time (OUCH)? Absolutely.

But the most important question you should be asking is this: after all the crap, was Maclin looking like himself down the stretch? And there is only one answer to that: absolutely, positively, beyond-a-shadow-of-a-doubt, YES.

All I needed to do to confirm this was go back to the playoff game (in which Maclin only saw four targets and had two catches) to be absolutely certain that Maclin’s lack of production is not a Maclin issue.

On this play, Maclin demonstrated his trademark route-running, which constantly leads to defenders being turned the wrong way or with their momentum going the wrong direction. Here, the ball went to Spencer Ware out of the backfield almost immediately instead.

(I had someone tell me the LB here makes that throw a pick. I disagree. The LB doesn’t move until Smith throws, which would’ve been roughly the same time he would’ve thrown to Maclin. ZERO chance he gets to it in time unless Smith throws it about 2 yards farther left than he should. That’s an easy NFL window).

My point isn’t really about Smith here, it’s to demonstrate that it’s ridiculous to gauge a WR based on numbers. You have to look and ask: are they getting open? And Maclin was.

Hill and Maclin ran the same route on opposite sides of the field on this play (great zone-buster routes). Hill had less separation on his side, but was the first read and was open so, therefore, got the ball. Think about whether another catch and 10 or so yards would change your opinion of how a WR’s stats look in a game. Then ask yourself why on earth a WR should be penalized on a play he did his job and just didn’t get the ball. This is why stats with receivers, more than any other position, should be viewed VERY carefully.

That’s only two plays, you say? OK.

This is another situation in which the lack of a catch has nothing to do with Maclin. He does a nice job getting separation over the middle here, but the ball got tipped up in the air (and was going elsewhere regardless). If he does the EXACT same thing and gets an average throw, he adds a minimum of 15 yards to his stats (if not quite a bit more, given the space there). But he gets nicked for something he can’t control.

And about that speed...

 

Maclin isn’t the burner he was in college, but he’s still got way more than enough juice to run right by corners who don’t respect his ability to stretch the field, even if they’re playing off the line of scrimmage. The safety help over the top, in my opinion, could have never gotten there on time to stop a well-thrown deep ball here (to be fair, Smith placed a great throw to Kelce over the middle on this play, so again, this isn’t about dinging Smith for not throwing Maclin the ball).

This is a long road to a short thought: it’s absolutely, completely ridiculous to say that Maclin is no longer a good player. He very much is. However, a combination of issues last season capped his production. Two of those (his own personal stuff and injury) we’ve already covered. There are two more issues that presented themselves as well, though:

1. Andy Reid’s insistence on making inferior receiving options the first read or ONLY read on certain play calls.
2. Alex Smith not seeing Maclin open.

Let’s not fight about Alex Smith, OK? My opinion of him hasn’t varied since I last wrote about him. There’s nothing left to say there. He shoulders some of the blame for Maclin’s numbers.

As far as Andy Reid goes, this issue has been well-chronicled. Albert Wilson and Demetrius Harris should not have have more targets between the two of them (82) than Jeremy Maclin (or Tyreek Hill, or Chris Conley). They just shouldn’t. Ross Travis and James O’Shaughnessy shouldn’t have another nine tacked on at all. Sure, nine targets sounds like very little, but when you factor in that number is roughly 12 percent of Maclin’s targets all year, it suddenly becomes a little more, “whoa, why did that happen?”

The point of all this, though, isn’t to bury Andy Reid either. He’s a very good coach with a few maddening tendencies. I can forgive that due to how well he designs the offense and manages the players.

The point is that Jeremy Maclin is, and has been, a very good wide receiver. It takes less than ten minutes of looking at all-22 film to see him demonstrating that. Teams should focus on building their system around their best players (Kelce, Maclin, and Hill), not replacing said players.

 

 

[eraser 722]

You should really click on the link. Seth Keyser shows some clips where it is evident Maclin is still a top receiver, and would be much more effective if not for...

[kcxiv 35]

 Take away weapons from an average QB who's on the decline. Yeah, that seems real fucking smart. lol  As it is, Alex needs all the fucking help he can get to even be an average QB.  

[NChiefsCorner 496]

Alex Smith needs an OL and a RB if you really want to help him, because you can him all the WR's you want and it won't help if he can't get the ball to them.

[PhataLerror 370]

You should really click on the link. Seth Keyser shows some clips where it is evident Maclin is still a top receiver, and would be much more effective if not for...

Did you bother to read the linked write-up for Alex Smith that Seth also did? I thought his summary was a little inconsistent with what his data showed, but if you came away with the idea that Maclin was less effective this year because of Smith, you'd have to ignore what Smith and the Chiefs' offense accomplished when Maclin was actually on his game.

[eraser 722]

Did you bother to read the linked write-up for Alex Smith that Seth also did? I thought his summary was a little inconsistent with what his data showed, but if you came away with the idea that Maclin was less effective this year because of Smith, you'd have to ignore what Smith and the Chiefs' offense accomplished when Maclin was actually on his game.

Smith is and always has been an enigma. He has a good percentage of completions. His errors seem to be low (doesn't throw many INT) However, his omissions are hard to overlook. When you watch the all 22 of the Chiefs, it becomes apparent the Chiefs do not utilize their talent, and that is mostly the fault of Alex Smith. Smith goes through a quick progression, and gets rid of the ball. That is good for him, because when he holds onto the ball longer, his completion percentage goes up, as does his turnover ratio. So, whether it is by plan or because he does not see the entire field well enough, Alex Smith misses a lot of huge plays, and does this on a consistent basis.

 

Alex Smith is not a bad quarterback. Alex Smith is a limited quarterback. A lot of people placed the blame on Smith's arm strength. I don't. I place it on three factors. One, Alex Smith does not read the field quickly. Perhaps this is because he is a run first QB, who is  constrained by the need to become a pass first QB (which is a requirement in the NFL). Second, Alex Smith is not accurate on mid to long range throws. He can get it there, but his accuracy really goes down. Finally, Smith is aware of his deficiencies, and gets rid of the ball to the most immediate receiver. This ultimately causes an abundance of lost opportunities.

 

Smith is about average as an NFL QB, and players know this. He is not going to kill you with overt mistakes, but he is not going to make big plays. As such, defenses can load up on the Chiefs, and risk getting beat deep.

[DefensiveMan 758]

Maclin has to stay

[PhataLerror 370]

So, whether it is by plan or because he does not see the entire field well enough, Alex Smith misses a lot of huge plays, and does this on a consistent basis.

"By plan" would not be on account of Reid and his Offensive Coordinating staff? And "by plan" wouldn't be so because the Chiefs haven't had a pass-blocking offensive line worthy of a league-wide ranking inside of the twenties?

 

Smith gets dinged no matter what he does. When he gets sacked within three seconds, it's because 'he held the ball too long'. If he makes throws quickly after the snap, it's because 'he can't make sequential reads quickly'. I've never seen another quarterback about whom so many people try so hard to turn positives into negatives.

 

I'm not irritated that you don't esteem Smith highly. It's your deductive reasoning that utterly confuses me. In 2014, Smith gets his spleen lacerated behind a garbage pass-blocking line while trying to find just one open receiver out of a bunch of now-ex-NFL receivers, so Reid tries to speed up the passing game while also investing in the wide receiver corps, and all of a sudden the practical thing for a Head Coach to do somehow becomes 'accommodating his limited quarterback'. That's just ridiculous. The problem with Chiefs fans is that they're not grateful to have a quarterback that can manage to make lemonade out of the lemons he's had to work on offense with since 2013. Few quarterbacks can succeed in the situation in which Smith is in.

[azchief21 5,278]

Smith is and always has been an enigma. He has a good percentage of completions. His errors seem to be low (doesn't throw many INT) However, his omissions are hard to overlook. When you watch the all 22 of the Chiefs, it becomes apparent the Chiefs do not utilize their talent, and that is mostly the fault of Alex Smith. Smith goes through a quick progression, and gets rid of the ball. That is good for him, because when he holds onto the ball longer, his completion percentage goes up, as does his turnover ratio. So, whether it is by plan or because he does not see the entire field well enough, Alex Smith misses a lot of huge plays, and does this on a consistent basis.

 

Alex Smith is not a bad quarterback. Alex Smith is a limited quarterback. A lot of people placed the blame on Smith's arm strength. I don't. I place it on three factors. One, Alex Smith does not read the field quickly. Perhaps this is because he is a run first QB, who is  constrained by the need to become a pass first QB (which is a requirement in the NFL). Second, Alex Smith is not accurate on mid to long range throws. He can get it there, but his accuracy really goes down. Finally, Smith is aware of his deficiencies, and gets rid of the ball to the most immediate receiver. This ultimately causes an abundance of lost opportunities.

 

Smith is about average as an NFL QB, and players know this. He is not going to kill you with overt mistakes, but he is not going to make big plays. As such, defenses can load up on the Chiefs, and risk getting beat deep.

Good post. AA's best season was merely average. Offenses will always be average when the most important piece is average. AA is very easy to game plan for. Just stop the run.  

[liquidfriend 1,151]

Alex Smith is not a bad quarterback. Alex Smith is a limited quarterback. A lot of people placed the blame on Smith's arm strength. I don't. I place it on three factors. One, Alex Smith does not read the field quickly. Perhaps this is because he is a run first QB, who is  constrained by the need to become a pass first QB (which is a requirement in the NFL). Second, Alex Smith is not accurate on mid to long range throws. He can get it there, but his accuracy really goes down. Finally, Smith is aware of his deficiencies, and gets rid of the ball to the most immediate receiver. This ultimately causes an abundance of lost opportunities.

I'm going to have to disagree.  I think Alex is a bad QB.

 

Over 50% of his production comes from YAC, and his very low air passing is a clear indicator that the team isn't winning off his arm.  The team has won from Dorsey finding some playmakers and Andy Reid having a well-built machine.  You know, the same system by the same dude people hate and wanted him fired. 

 

I think he has the ability to be average, and teetering towards being good but his own lack of self-confidence and complete unwillingness to risk losing the game to win the game makes him a bad QB.  A lot for the blame is heaped onto Andy for the conservative offense, but he's got plenty of track record that goes against that notion completely.   

 

The results have been pretty positive when he takes the risk, but he'll only do it if the risk is basically gone.  That's what makes him a bad QB. 

 

He got away with this for years by being a dual-threat QB to help keep the chains moving.  Now that his mobility is gone, they've turned into one of the worst teams on 3rd down.

 

The long-time narrative that one poster has been trying to forcefeed is that it's a team loss with a focus on the team if they lose the game and a team win, but the win was strongly influenced by a tiny handed QB.

[West 6,714]

I do not see KC letting Jeremy Maclin go.

 

KC has already announced Smith will be the starter in 2017.

 

The key questions that come from this is what will KC do to make the offense more effective?

 

1. What will KC do at Guard? 

2. What will KC do at RB?  I think JC is done in KC.  Will the Chiefs keep the the same tag team of West and Ware? 

3. What will KC do at the #2 Receiver?  I think Conley is the guy there.

 

 

It may not meet everyone's expectations but I see KC locking up Berry and then going for help at ILB

 

 

 

w

[azchief21 5,278]

I do not see KC letting Jeremy Maclin go.

 

KC has already announced Smith will be the starter in 2017.

 

The key questions that come from this is what will KC do to make the offense more effective?

 

1. What will KC do at Guard? 

2. What will KC do at RB?  I think JC is done in KC.  Will the Chiefs keep the the same tag team of West and Ware? 

3. What will KC do at the #2 Receiver?  I think Conley is the guy there.

 

 

It may not meet everyone's expectations but I see KC locking up Berry and then going for help at ILB

 

 

 

w

Unfortunately based on your second sentence, the rest won't matter. We'll have an average offense regardless of what moves we make on offense. An OG or an RB won't change this much. A WR2 is important in this offense isn't important, we're a one route read and scramble offense. Our WRs must be able to block for bubble screens. We've had 4 year of being in the lower 3rd in offense. Andy had top 5 offenses in Philly. This will be our 5th year of trying to fix everything else on offense. The problem with this offense isn't the talent around AA. If it is, it's time to quit praising Dorsey for his talent evaluation. He's had 4 full years. I'm for going defense high in the draft and in FA. Win this thing like Broncos did in spite of the offense.

[West 6,714]

I just keep hoping that this regime gets their heads out of their asses.

 

I want to get back to a respectable record.

 

I want to get in the playoffs

 

I want to win the AFC West

 

I want to WIN and Playoff Game

 

err..

 

Never mind, I'lll give them the benefit of the doubt for one more year.

 

w