Jump to content

Poe

DefensiveMan

Recommended Posts

 
  • Replies 72
  • Created
  • Last Reply
 
eraser

eraser 722

Posted
Posted

Howard is not a NT. He can fill in there, but that is not his role on the team, nor should it be. Howard slashes between players on the OL. Poe can do that too, but he is supposed to actually hold back double teams, and allow other players to make plays. That is why I am not all hung up on his tackles or sacks. Poe has sensational plays, where he takes on two guys, and pushes them back, and then he has plays where he is dominated.

 

Part of this is what we got with Poe. He was all over the place at Memphis. They put him at DE, and DT. He was at 5 gap, 3 gap, 0 gap...  The thing at college was two part trying to find a place for Poe to be dominant (because other teams knew he was their best player), and part Poe never really rising to the occasion. He was average at best in college. His workouts, and the combine displayed his unique skills.

 

In a weird way Poe is a tweener. He is stocky, and stout enough to play at the NT straight up against the Center. However, he has athletic ability. The fact he injured his back is a setback which was truly unfortunate. He really did not know what he was doing his rookie season. He continued to improve, but the injury to his back really stalled his improvement.

 

I think Indy is the best place for Poe. However, they may not want him. Tennessee would be a natural place for him, since he is a home body, and likes to be close to Memphis. Tennessee doesn't really need Poe. The Titans have gotten pretty good play out of their two young Nose Tackles. Indy had a good NT, but he has two felony charges, and reportedly is likely to get jail time. They need a NT, and that is where I expect Poe to turn up.

 

Lots of Defensive Line players in this draft could mean it is unfortunate timing for Poe. Teams can get a rookie in the second or third to do an adequate job at close to league minimum. Why would they pay Dontari Poe $10 M per season. Everyone needs to know their value. Will Wilfork played eleven seasons with New England. He only completed three games in 2013. The fourth game, he was gone for the year. He came back, but Belichick knew he had to move on. So, Wilfork moved to Houston for two more seasons. I am surprised he was able to last that long. He carries a lot of weight, and unlike Poe, Wilfork is not well proportioned (beer belly) So, the contract with the Texans for the great Will Wilfork was for $5 M guaranteed, and $9 M over two seasons. I think Wilfork played almost as good as Poe. That might be close to his value following the draft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
SEMO

SEMO 6,811

Posted
Posted

Howard is not a NT. He can fill in there, but that is not his role on the team, nor should it be. Howard slashes between players on the OL. Poe can do that too, but he is supposed to actually hold back double teams, and allow other players to make plays. That is why I am not all hung up on his tackles or sacks. Poe has sensational plays, where he takes on two guys, and pushes them back, and then he has plays where he is dominated.

 

Part of this is what we got with Poe. He was all over the place at Memphis. They put him at DE, and DT. He was at 5 gap, 3 gap, 0 gap... The thing at college was two part trying to find a place for Poe to be dominant (because other teams knew he was their best player), and part Poe never really rising to the occasion. He was average at best in college. His workouts, and the combine displayed his unique skills.

 

In a weird way Poe is a tweener. He is stocky, and stout enough to play at the NT straight up against the Center. However, he has athletic ability. The fact he injured his back is a setback which was truly unfortunate. He really did not know what he was doing his rookie season. He continued to improve, but the injury to his back really stalled his improvement.

 

I think Indy is the best place for Poe. However, they may not want him. Tennessee would be a natural place for him, since he is a home body, and likes to be close to Memphis. Tennessee doesn't really need Poe. The Titans have gotten pretty good play out of their two young Nose Tackles. Indy had a good NT, but he has two felony charges, and reportedly is likely to get jail time. They need a NT, and that is where I expect Poe to turn up.

 

Lots of Defensive Line players in this draft could mean it is unfortunate timing for Poe. Teams can get a rookie in the second or third to do an adequate job at close to league minimum. Why would they pay Dontari Poe $10 M per season. Everyone needs to know their value. Will Wilfork played eleven seasons with New England. He only completed three games in 2013. The fourth game, he was gone for the year. He came back, but Belichick knew he had to move on. So, Wilfork moved to Houston for two more seasons. I am surprised he was able to last that long. He carries a lot of weight, and unlike Poe, Wilfork is not well proportioned (beer belly) So, the contract with the Texans for the great Will Wilfork was for $5 M guaranteed, and $9 M over two seasons. I think Wilfork played almost as good as Poe. That might be close to his value following the draft.

Vince was better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
eraser

eraser 722

Posted
Posted

I think Vince Wilfork was better. He looked like a bloated Homer Simpson, but what counts is not how you look, but how you perform. The think about Wilfork is he never played all the snaps. He had about half the snaps last year for Houston. Poe is not listed as a NT with the Chiefs. He is more versatile, and can be utilized in other formations. They call him a DT. Kansas City only has 5 other defensive players with more snaps than Poe.

 

This is a good website that may help. https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-defensive-snap-count-stats/2016/

 

Total snaps are obviously only one marker. How a player performs during each and every snap is hard to determine. It is not simply looking up which player has the most tackles or sacks. These numbers are helpful, but teams have very specific roles for each player. A player may be asked to take on doubles in order for others to get the sacks, and tackles. The best way to determine the worth of a player is to look at every single play. You can determine whether a play was a loss, win, or tie. That helps, but there are over 1000 snaps on an average team. This is why evaluations done by teams (who hire people to do this full time) are always better than the casual observer..

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
 
 
qnet

qnet 1,150

Posted
Posted

Interesting, they were talking about him on the radio yesterday and said he went to Miami without a deal. I guess he changed his mind or couldn't get it done in Miami. I haven't been following football much this offseason. I agree with you guys opinion of him. He was a decent player but not consistent imo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
oldtimer

oldtimer 8,686

Posted
Posted

My opinion, stupid move on his part. Why you ask, because Atlanta will not return to the SB next year and he would have received a longer and probably better deal head he waited.

 

 

 disagree. Its not about ATL going to the SB again or not it is  that he's broken or the perception  that he is and until proven other wise he's not going to get a sniff. This was a Pioli move and Poe is playing for a contract. He played for a contract this last year and he flubbed. I think he has maxed out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
liquidfriend

liquidfriend 1,151

Posted
Posted

Interesting, they were talking about him on the radio yesterday and said he went to Miami without a deal. I guess he changed his mind or couldn't get it done in Miami. I haven't been following football much this offseason. I agree with you guys opinion of him. He was a decent player but not consistent imo.

The Dolphins were only offering 3-4m lol

 

Poe would of been wise to of taken that lowball offer. Playing next to Suh in a stat generating system would of got him a fat contract in a year, if he's healthy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
 
 
 
 
eraser

eraser 722

Posted
Posted

That's pretty much what I was thinking. He should have went to a better D. It will hide his weaknesses.

Atlanta has some good pieces in their defense. Poe may actually be a better fit for the 4-3 defense than he was in the 3-4. At Memphis, Poe was placed all over their D line. He has a lot of athleticism, and may be better at penetrating than demanding, and controlling double teams. Actually, Poe has not been apt at NT, ever. He has a few good moves, but that is not what you need in a NT. The job of a NT is to take on double teams, and earn a stalemate. A win or two along the way is great, but not really important. Just holding ground against double teams allows the LB to make plays. Poe lost about 30 - 40% of time, throughout his career. He was worse as a rookie, and better after his first year, but much worse after he injured his back.

 

Poe should benefit by not having to go against two blockers, as he would have if he were to return to the Chiefs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
 
 
 
 
 
eraser

eraser 722

Posted
Posted

 I'm not signing up.. so if someone could summarize please.

The odd thing is you really do not have to sign up. At least I did not. I ignored the sign up placard, and pushed the arrow. It played. I will try to find another link.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
eraser

eraser 722

Posted
Posted
Dontari Poe film review: What does he do and what’s he worth?

by MNchiefsfan Feb 27, 2017, 9:50am CST

 

We’ve entered the offseason. Which means that we’re officially at the point where people value draft picks more than proven players, and (even more insanely) even value cap space more than proven players. It makes us all crazy, this time of year. I blame our love of shiny new things, but that perhaps is a thought for another day.

The two big questions on everyone’s mind (besides that whole non-rumor rumor about Tony something-or-other. Which, by the way, I put almost no stock in) are as follows:

  1. Will the Chiefs keep Eric Berry, and what is he worth paying?
  2. Will the Chiefs keep Dontari Poe, and what is HE worth paying?

There’s probably a third question on everyone’s mind (when will MNchiefsfan bring back Mrs. MNchiefsfan for hot takes, for example), but today we’re focusing on the second of the “big two.” Dontari Poe.

Poe has been with the Chiefs for five years now, and we’ve come full circle on him. He went from a draft pick that most people (don’t lie to me) generally didn’t approve of, to a rookie that people were unsure of (though some, like THIS WRITER WHO IS PATTING HIMSELF ON THE BACK UNTIL IT BRUISES, saw he could play), to a guy many fans began to consider a dominant force, to a guy many fans have now turned on and believe to be a big part of the Chiefs run defense problems. How is it they say... life comes at you fast.

 

I found it quite fascinating what happened to peoples’ perception of Poe this season. Over the last few years I’ve been regularly called out for saying that Poe is slightly overrated by Chiefs fans. This year, I’ve found myself generally in the reverse situation, defending Poe detractors who believe he’s a liability. As always, I couldn’t let the question lie as to what Poe’s on-field production looked like, so to the film we went.

I re-watched six games on all-22 (which has a great Madden cam view for OL/DL play). I tracked Poe’s individual wins, losses, and neutral plays against the pass and the run, as well as effective double teams and sacks/hits/pressures. The goal is to see how Poe did, regardless of the result of the play. For an explanation of what a win/loss/neutral play is, read here (though the terms are fairly self-explanatory).

An effective double team is one forced by Poe beating his initial blocker or one he “commands” (actually occupies and keeps blockers off other defenders without giving much ground). Not all double teams are effective, or in some games even most of them. Here’s an example of an effective double team.

 
 

It’s a thin line between an effective double team vs. an ineffective double team, but it’s wildly important, particularly against the run. Managing to command that extra blocker (whose job is to just hit the DL then go immediately to the LB) for even a half-second can be the difference between a stuff or a 5 yard gain (at minimum).

I looked at the first Chargers game, as well as the Jets, first Raiders, Falcons, Titans and Steelers (playoff) games. This allowed us to get a good cross-section of games from throughout the season, as well as with/without Derrick Johnson (and before/after the emergence of Chris Jones). Here are the numbers

Chiefs.png

So there are a few things we should really talk about regarding those numbers, then we’ll talk about Poe’s tape.

The first thing I want to remind everyone is a general rule of defensive line play: they are going to lose a lot more often than offensive linemen (or have neutral plays) and win less frequently. That’s the nature of the game. If that weren’t the case, offenses would average 10 points per game. There are a lot of advantages for offensive linemen, chief among them being they know exactly who they’re blocking (or where) and defensive players do not. It’s similar to the problem corners have not knowing what route a WR is going to run. It makes it inherently more difficult when you have to react rather than act. So don’t freak out about those numbers, they’re not horrific.

Poe was far from the biggest issue with the run defense

That said... there are a lot more losses, especially as a pass rusher, than I am comfortable with to call a player elite, or even close. It would be one thing if Poe balanced it out with a dozen wins a game (with multiple pressures, etc), but that’s not something we see a lot of from Poe as a rusher. The second thing that gives me a bit of pause is the fact that Poe’s win numbers from game to game aren’t that consistent. For example, Poe had six wins rushing the passer against Atlanta (he played a very solid game against them), but only one against the Steelers and Raiders. Looking at his run defense wins you see a bit more consistency, but still some variation (again, against the Steelers and Raiders, both of whom gave him some trouble).

The same story exists with effective double teams. The main argument I see from people who believe Poe is an integral part to the Chiefs defense is that he takes on all the double teams so others don’t have to. While that idea is true in a sense (Poe does indeed see a lot more double teams than other defensive linemen, though Jones started seeing more as the year went along), how effective Poe was against those double teams varied by game. Against the Chargers in the Jets he had multiple great snaps against double teams. In multiple other games, I saw too many snaps like this one.

 

For all of Poe’s vast size, I wouldn’t call him an overpowering player. He does possess an exceptional club move when rushing the passer (though he doesn’t use it as much as I’d like), but when you see him go up against double teams or even individual blockers you don’t get the sense that he’s brutishly strong, even at his size (as compared to what you see from Chris Jones against individual OL).

Now, let’s be clear, that doesn’t mean Poe is WEAK at the point of attack. I’m hear to tell you that people saying Poe was to blame for run defense woes are ... pretty far off in my estimation. While he had some games where he struggled, Poe was far from the biggest issue with the run defense. He wasn’t blameless, but way too often once DJ went down Poe would do his job only to have the inside linebackers fail to get to the hole on time to stuff the run. Combine that with a surrounding cast of Jones and “who are those guys?” and you’re asking for trouble.

My primary issue with Poe is that, in my opinion, he didn’t do enough to raise the level of a struggling run defense to warrant being called a great run defender. He’s solid at it. Decent. But inconsistent at times and not immovable at the point of attack, particularly against good offensive lines. For every couple of plays like this...

 

... I felt like there were plays where Poe was part of the problem rather than the solution. Again, he wasn’t the MAIN problem, and he was one of the better run defenders on the defense (he was much more consistent than any of the other DL, though Jones gave him a run for his money down the stretch). But he wasn’t great, and he wasn’t some kind of major enabler through effectively taking on a dozen double teams a game. That’s a myth.

As a pass rusher, Poe frustrates me at times. You’ll see a play like this:

 

and after watching that, you’ll wonder why Poe doesn’t have a dozen sacks a year. The problem is that it’s just in flashes. Poe has several moves that work very well (swim and club, specifically, as well as a push/pull at times), and then a bunch of snaps in between where he doesn’t seem to get much traction at all, regardless of whether he’s being blocked by one guy or two.

Is Poe a BAD pass rusher? No, he’s not. And he’ll give you a couple (usually) of plays a game where he gets quick pressure like that from the interior, which is wildly valuable. And some of the contributions Poe made to the pass rush are going to go completely unnoticed by fans or recorded by any sort of statistic (well, except my made up effective double teams statistic). Plays like this carry weight, even if you don’t really notice it during the game.

 

So much like with the run game, the idea that Poe is a bad player is definitely not accurate. However, I’d call this a weaker aspect of his game, or at least a less consistent one. I really am mystified as to why a guy with Poe’s exceptional athleticism for his size doesn’t get more pass rush (it felt like he did in years past) than he does, but it’s just not something you see much of in multiple games.

One thing that’s interesting is that Poe’s bull rush is ineffective the vast majority of the time. It’s incredible, because he’s a big guy with legs like tree trunks and what seems to be a powerful upper body when he’s clubbing people. However, when he goes into a bull rush it very, very rarely finds any success, generally ending with a stonewall by the offensive lineman.

My overall impression watching Poe’s film is that he’s a slightly worse pass rusher than I thought he was going in and a slightly better run defender. However, the fact that he can passably (at times) rush the passer while being (generally) decent against the run adds to his value. Many defensive linemen are one or the other (see: Jackson, Tyson) and become a liability in any other scenario. Poe can be on the field for any type of down, and that’s a big deal.

I would also say that Poe brings specific value for the Chiefs because the roster currently (as far as I can tell) lacks a player who can line up over the center or one of the guards and take on double teams without getting rolled consistently. The Chiefs tried it with Nunez-Roches and it was ... well, bad. Jaye Howard has never been as strong at the point of attack as Poe, and that remained the case in 2016 prior to his injury. Allen Bailey is a very strong man, but he’s too long and light to play that kind of game consistently. Same with Jones, whose talents would be wasted eating blockers. The only player I saw do it (in very limited snaps) who I’m intrigued by is Kendall Reyes, who is a free agent.

I hope the Chiefs keep him, but very much believe they’d be able to replace him passably if he walked

That need MUST factor in when considering what Poe is worth, unless the Chiefs plan on bringing in a more traditional run-stuffing nose tackle and sticking with using Jones/Howard/Bailey/RNR rotations on pass rushing downs (which may well make sense).

So what IS Poe worth. Well, if I were going to distill it into a maximum of dollars per year I’d be OK with the Chiefs spending on Poe, I would be very leery (based on the games I reviewed) of going over $8 million bucks a year. And quite frankly, that’s more spendy than I’d like to be. Poe is a useful player who is a decent run defender (with flashes of great), a passable pass rusher (with rarer, but still existing, flashes of great), and a guy who will do the thankless dirty work inside and GENERALLY do it well. But he’s not dominant. And he’s not a star. In fact, during this paragraph I think I just talked myself into only being OK with $7 million a year at most.

Poe is a good player. But in my opinion he’s not a foundational guy you build your defense around. I hope the Chiefs keep him, but very much believe they’d be able to replace him passably if he walked. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of contract he receives (in KC or elsewhere), particularly when you factor in concerns about his back. I’m rooting for him to remain, though. The defense is better with him there, and, I mean, bloated Tebow you guys.

 
 
 
If you want to click on the gifs and watch the videos, then you must clink on the link I provided. Here it is again. http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/2/27/14723156/dontari-poe-film-review-what-does-he-do-and-whats-he-worth
 
I think the point I would want to make is Poe did command double teams most often during the year Perhaps it was merely a chip, but that is categorized as a double. In his position, Poe was set up to be doubled on almost every play. He was not good at it. His positives were lower than Logan. His evenly matched were about the same, but slightly higher. His plays in which he  was beat on a double play were double that of Logan.
 
Poe didn't know what he was doing his rookie season. He made a lot of mistakes. Poe was good in 2013. He was fantastic in 2014. He was not very good in 2015, and worse in 2016. Poe was injured in a weight lifting accident after his 2014 season. It seems reasonable to be to project his back continues to be an issue.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
 

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing
×
  • Create New...