The Relationship Between Drafting Quarterbacks and Successful Seasons

[eraser 722]

We definitely need to upgrade the running game. We need large runs to take the pressure off of Alex Smith. Maybe a Dalvin Cook wouldn't be so bad in the late first. Ware, is a nice change of pace power back. Other than that, he's not a starter.

This draft is deep with RB. I think they have more important needs. There is a whole lot we don't know

• whether DJ will return, and how healthy
• will Logan fit in, and what long term plans are for NT
• Is Terrance Mitchell as good as he seemed or a fun house mirror show
• Can Tyreek Hill develop as a WR, or is he going to rest on his physical abilities alone
• Will Andy Reid, and John Dorsey want to stay in KC long term

This is just the start. I think the answers to this will be evident, but until then, it is all speculation. A reasonable person does not expect DJ (at his age) to return as good as he was, and definitely not expect him to play much longer.

 

Logan seemed to be decent, but the Chiefs only gave him a one year deal. That makes me believe he is not in their long term plans.

 

Mitchell showed good coverage skills, but his 40 speed tells a different story

 

Sometimes a flash in the pan rookie gets sudden success, and that ruins him

 

Andy Reid and John Dorsey are saying all the right things, but why haven't the Chiefs got their contracts renewed? Seems as if Clark Hunt would have if he could have gotten a deal done.

 

Bigger needs

1. QB
2. RILB
3. LILB
4. OL depth

Medium needs

1. Rush OLB for Tamba
2. Rush OLB for Ford
3. TE - second to Kelce
4. WR - improve X

Low level needs

1. RB
2. Safety
3. DE
4. WR - replacement for Maclin
5. Return Specialist

Not a current need

1. Punter
2. Kicker
3. LT
4. RT
5. Center

All this can, and will change. Dorsey tends to draft for value over need.

[kccrow 529]

Unless they get fired, GMs and HCs don't tend to jump ship E. I wouldn't worry about that.

 

 

As for the running game, I think that's something you can't say has been bad. The Chiefs have been 15th, 6th, 10th, and 10th in the NFL in rushing with Reid so far. Yeah, I think maybe you add a better run blocker at TE and a better RB, just to keep things going, but I think you can do that in the 4th round range. I really like Kittle out of Iowa at TE and I love Aaron Jones out of UTEP at RB. 

 

It doesn't seem to matter how much things around Alex Smith improve, he produces the exact same thing. So, improving at WR is unlikely to yield anything more. If you're looking for more there, you're looking past the Smith era. Maybe you're looking at replacing Maclin and his contract, and if that's the case I really like Chris Godwin out of Penn State in the 2nd.

 

If this team is going to win with Smith, I really think you spend premium picks on stacking the defense. Maybe T.J. Watt in 1, a CB that slips in 2 like Quincy Wilson or something, and an ILB that can replace DJ like an Anthony Walker in 3. Maybe even double-dip there. 

 

If you're not trying to upgrade and move on from Smith, you have to build as much as you can to win on the other side of the ball. The team would need to draft a backup QB like maybe a Josh Dobbs later on. That seems to be the status quo of late though. I'd much rather take a stab at one of these top QBs that need work early on. 

[oldtimer 8,686]

Unless they get fired, GMs and HCs don't tend to jump ship E. I wouldn't worry about that.

 

 

As for the running game, I think that's something you can't say has been bad. The Chiefs have been 15th, 6th, 10th, and 10th in the NFL in rushing with Reid so far. Yeah, I think maybe you add a better run blocker at TE and a better RB, just to keep things going, but I think you can do that in the 4th round range. I really like Kittle out of Iowa at TE and I love Aaron Jones out of UTEP at RB. 

 

It doesn't seem to matter how much things around Alex Smith improve, he produces the exact same thing. So, improving at WR is unlikely to yield anything more. If you're looking for more there, you're looking past the Smith era. Maybe you're looking at replacing Maclin and his contract, and if that's the case I really like Chris Godwin out of Penn State in the 2nd.

 

If this team is going to win with Smith, I really think you spend premium picks on stacking the defense. Maybe T.J. Watt in 1, a CB that slips in 2 like Quincy Wilson or something, and an ILB that can replace DJ like an Anthony Walker in 3. Maybe even double-dip there. 

 

If you're not trying to upgrade and move on from Smith, you have to build as much as you can to win on the other side of the ball. The team would need to draft a backup QB like maybe a Josh Dobbs later on. That seems to be the status quo of late though. I'd much rather take a stab at one of these top QBs that need work early on. 

 

 

 my thoughts exactly

[West 6,714]

I love the idea of upgrading at QB but I am having a hard time finding viable alternatives.

 

Drafting a QB in a middle round is fine.

 

I place Run Defense Improvement at the top of my list as well as another guard.

 

w

[DieHard 2,061]

I tend to think an average QB needs stud WRs more than rock star QBs. Plus we are likely 1 or 2 years from moving on from Alex. But in general I agree with defense helping more this year than a WR. If we can figure out the o line with the players we have, I think we can get by with our WR core so long as Kelce stays healthy, Mac returns to form and Hill takes the next step. Hard to depend on all those things happening, so if there is a stud WR there and he is BPA, you have to take him.

[DefensiveMan 758]

I'm all for stacking the defense. We almost certainly need to go ILB or OLB for the 27th pick. Like Crow said, he doesn't improve drastically just need to build the other side of the ball. We need a more controlled running game for that to happen as well. Half of defense is ball control on offense. 

[PhataLerror 370]

Another snapshot as I continue to look for controls in evaluating what really matters in acquiring a quarterback: What is the win percentage of quarterbacks according to years of experience? I've seen some argue that the best way to win a Super Bowl is to fall into a situation like that of the Seattle Seahawks: Draft a NFL-viable quarterback onto an already talented team, and win a Super Bowl with him before the clock strikes midnight on his rookie contract. Do the numbers say that's a replicable recipe for success?

 

Exp Pct

1   0.396

2   0.471

3   0.509

4   0.528

5   0.531

6   0.545

7   0.560

8   0.545

9   0.533

10  0.517

11  0.549

12  0.524

13  0.579

14  0.554

15  0.599

16  0.594

17  0.624

18  0.515

19  0.618

20  0.444

21  0.400

 

After adjusting the samples to acknowledge only the average win-loss record for a quarterback playing at least half of his team's games in a given year, there's clearly a sharp learning curve for rookie quarterbacks; the Dak Prescott rookie season is not the norm. Not a lot of quarterbacks play into their seventeenth season, but that's the year in which quarterbacks break the .600 barrier. (Even so, those are generally tenured quarterbacks that are well into their decline.)

 

I'm not advocating any sort of decision-making merely based on these numbers, but this is the average.
 

Here are the numbers without the qualifier: All 23838 quarterback starts since 1966:

 

Exp Pct

1   0.372

2   0.443

3   0.477

4   0.494

5   0.509

6   0.514

7   0.533

8   0.528

9   0.514

10  0.496

11  0.513

12  0.514

13  0.562

14  0.537

15  0.562

16  0.563

17  0.562

18  0.500

19  0.491

20  0.500

21  0.429

22  *

23  0.500

 

* No quarterback in the Super Bowl era has ever started a game when in his 22nd year in the league.

[xen 1,010,220]

I love the idea of upgrading at QB but I am having a hard time finding viable alternatives.

 

Drafting a QB in a middle round is fine.

 

I place Run Defense Improvement at the top of my list as well as another guard.

 

w

Meh. Run defense is lower on my list. It is a passing league. You can be mediocre at stopping the run as long as you have a good pass defense and still get to the big game.

 

Backs and pass rushers only early in the draft if we go defense. 2 down MLB's and run stuffers can be had later in the draft.

 

The only exception I would make to this is a Keuchly style wrecking ball stud 3 down MLB that offers a ton of versatility and some pass rush chops. Not many of those around though.

[oldtimer 8,686]

Meh. Run defense is lower on my list. It is a passing league. You can be mediocre at stopping the run as long as you have a good pass defense and still get to the big game.

 

Backs and pass rushers only early in the draft if we go defense. 2 down MLB's and run stuffers can be had later in the draft.

 

The only exception I would make to this is a Keuchly style wrecking ball stud 3 down MLB that offers a ton of versatility and some pass rush chops. Not many of those around though.

 

 

is Foster that guy?

[xen 1,010,220]

is Foster that guy?

I would think so. Does a lot of things well and pretty pro ready. I doubt he lasts til our pick though.

 

Foster has great football iq already. Hell of a player.

 

Hasaan Reddick might be too. But he would take a lot longer to adapt to our defense.

He's no sure thing but sure seems like he could be great in the middle of a 34. Would be a will in a 43 though I would think.

[PhataLerror 370]

Here's a question: What would you expect the difference in total win percentage to be between the first three quarterbacks selected from every draft and that of the rest of the field (including undrafted free agents) in starts since the beginning of the Super Bowl era?

[liquidfriend 1,151]

I would think so. Does a lot of things well and pretty pro ready. I doubt he lasts til our pick though.

Foster has great football iq already. Hell of a player.

Hasaan Reddick might be too. But he would take a lot longer to adapt to our defense.

He's no sure thing but sure seems like he could be great in the middle of a 34. Would be a will in a 43 though I would think.

I think Reddick is gone by the Chiefs pick too. A lot of teams with need at ILB.

[xen 1,010,220]

I think Reddick is gone by the Chiefs pick too. A lot of teams with need at ILB.

Yeah and reddick is versatile so he could go high. A lot of teams will like him I would think.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

Yes, very much that. I also think the ILB class gets pretty grim after those first round caliber guys, so I am anticipating a big run on them in the middle of the first round.

[DieHard 2,061]

I would take a stud pass rushe over a run stuffing ILB. I think our run defense got better with the replacement of Poe because mostly of his ailing back. If DJ makes it back healthy we can improve on run defense. I don't know if we have the horses to mount a pass rush. Even if Houston is healthy you need to have 2.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

I think we need to give Houston time to actually recover. Before this short era with HGH use, ACL's were at least a full year to recover.

 

The big piece of the puzzle will be Dee Fordand what they think about him.

[DieHard 2,061]

Good call on Houston. I was encouraged with Fords production on the left, but he is so one dimensional that he can't play there if we have Houston on the field. For some reason he looked like the old Ford on the right. Contract year though. Who knows. Maybe.

[DefensiveMan 758]

I'm actually good on Dee Ford. No need to renew.