Season half over.....analysis

[jetlord 10,209]

Okay, the Chiefs have played half their regular games so it's time to look ahead to the second half and maybe look back a little.  Beating NE was a huge boost and following up wins against PHL and Wash gave us a little more optimism than probably justified.  The first half against PIT and the last two minutes against OAK showed all the warts this team has.  So what's ahead?  The toughest game remaining is this Sunday.  With or without Zeke, Dallas will be favored and I'm predicting a loss.  After the bye week, the Chiefs will be favored in every game barring a complete collapse or some major injuries.  Those of us who predicted 10-6 or 11-5 won't be too far off.  Still, the Chiefs should win their division and could finish 12-4 again.  That still would probably only get them the third seed in the playoffs.  PIT has the tie breaker and NE is just unlikely to lose even two more games.  HOU, JAX, and TENN will beat each other up and 10-6 may win the south.  BUFF still has to play NE twice.  'Nuff said.

 

Remaining games for leading playoff contenders:

 

DEN:  @PHL, NE, @OAK, @Wash, KC...Lucky to finish 8-8

 

OAK:   NE, DEN, @KC, DAL, @PHL..Lucky to finish 8-8.

 

BUF:  N.O., @KC, NE, @NE...Could finish 11-5 and become the top wildcard.  Won't beat out NE

 

TENN:  @PIT, HOU, JAX....11-5 or 10-6

 

JAX:  SEA, TENN, HOU....same at TENN.  Division could rest on playing each other

 

HOU:  TENN, JAX, PIT....sweep TENN and JAX and they'll have a real shot at division fourth seed

 

MIA:  Probably done

 

So my prediction, subject to change after some usual upsets, is NE, PIT, KC, and a south tossup.  BUFF and another south team get the wild cards.  Now if KC could beat DAL or Brady got injured, it all could change, but this is the way I see it for now.  Will have to eat some crow for predicting three playoff teams from the AFC west.

 

 

[KCSLC2008 606]

Thank you for all that work. I don't have time to comment, yet, but wanted to bump the thread so that others might see your work.

[FANATIC 852]

Every AFC Team has flaws. Salary Cap makes it hard to build the perfect beast. KC has as good a chance as any of advancing to the BIG GAME. Every team is one critical injury away from a current advantage becoming a disadvantage. Berry is an example.

 

KC finishes 5-3 and still wins the division at 11-5. Comes down to key players being healthy and coaching as to how far they advance.

 

Defense needs to change up their scheme week to week and continue to be respectable. Offense needs to carry this team.

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

Every AFC Team has flaws. Salary Cap makes it hard to build the perfect beast. KC has as good a chance as any of advancing to the BIG GAME. Every team is one critical injury away from a current advantage becoming a disadvantage. Berry is an example.

 

KC finishes 5-3 and still wins the division at 11-5. Comes down to key players being healthy and coaching as to how far they advance.

 

Defense needs to change up their scheme week to week and continue to be respectable. Offense needs to carry this team.

 

 

Agreed across the board. Except for the idea that we have as good a chance as any to win the SB. If this team doesn't make some adjustment and start stopping the run more consistently then competent opposing offenses are going to continue being able to do whatever they want against us.

 

As good as our offense looked early this season, this is not a team I want playing shootouts. I'm not saying we need a top 5 unit on both sides of the ball, but we can't expect to win a Superbowl, or even play in one, with run defense like this.

[Mloe68 1,521]

Agreed across the board. Except for the idea that we have as good a chance as any to win the SB. If this team doesn't make some adjustment and start stopping the run more consistently then competent opposing offenses are going to continue being able to do whatever they want against us.

 

As good as our offense looked early this season, this is not a team I want playing shootouts. I'm not saying we need a top 5 unit on both sides of the ball, but we can't expect to win a Superbowl, or even play in one, with run defense like this.

I'm not getting why the dline is struggling. Both ILBs are coming off major surgery and there is some realistic possibility they could improve. Overall though it's almost odd to think New England may be one of the better matchups for us (as well as Houston) while the Steelers, Jags, Titans and even Bills can all really get after it in running game. We don't need to be good there by any stretch, we just can't be bad.

[Mloe68 1,521]

Every AFC Team has flaws. Salary Cap makes it hard to build the perfect beast. KC has as good a chance as any of advancing to the BIG GAME. Every team is one critical injury away from a current advantage becoming a disadvantage. Berry is an example.

 

KC finishes 5-3 and still wins the division at 11-5. Comes down to key players being healthy and coaching as to how far they advance.

 

Defense needs to change up their scheme week to week and continue to be respectable. Offense needs to carry this team.

Playoffs are going to come down to matchups more than any year I can remember in my opinion. Get in and get good matchups, there no reason we can't win Super Bowl. Our playmakers and even QB play are that good this year. Also would be very possible to lose wild card game even st home to a team like the Titans if we can't solve running game woes. At this point what matters most is getting back to a position we have a chance in January.

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

I'm not getting why the dline is struggling. Both ILBs are coming off major surgery and there is some realistic possibility they could improve. Overall though it's almost odd to think New England may be one of the better matchups for us (as well as Houston) while the Steelers, Jags, Titans and even Bills can all really get after it in running game. We don't need to be good there by any stretch, we just can't be bad.

 

Well more often than not we only have 2 real d-lineman on the field don't we? I really think some of this is schematic and personnel related. Playing dime with Berry in there acting as "a second ILB" is ok because he is a stud against the run. Sorenson is AWFUL there.

 

So I don't understand why they won't run more nickel. Either use 3 ACTUAL d-lineman  or 2 ACTUAL ILB on the field. Instead of 2 d-lineman, 2 OLB, 1 ILB and a SS in the box.

 

I realize if they had 3 real d-lineman on the field and 2 OLB then we would still have only DJ behind them and he has been very inconsistent this year as well. What about 3 DL, 1 OLB (Houston), and 2 ILB on the field in obvious running situations? What about 2 DL , 2 OLB and more of Ragland and DJ in there in obvious running situations?

 

I realize any time you are loading up against the run you are compromising your ability to cover the pass, but if you can't stop the run first and force them into 3rd and longs, it doesn't matter anyway. This defense is flawed no matter who they put out there though. Ford is terrible vs. the run. Zombo offers nothing as a pass rusher. Sorenson looks to be overmatched in all phases.

 

Sutton loves to run with 6DBs and 3 safeties, but at what point does he realize that Sorenson is not capable of filling Berry's role in ANY capacity, and start making adjustments?

[Calichief 3,016]

Well more often than not we only have 2 real d-lineman on the field don't we? I really think some of this is schematic and personnel related. Playing dime with Berry in there acting as "a second ILB" is ok because he is a stud against the run. Sorenson is AWFUL there.

 

So I don't understand why they won't run more nickel. Either use 3 ACTUAL d-lineman or 2 ACTUAL ILB on the field. Instead of 2 d-lineman, 2 OLB, 1 ILB and a SS in the box.

 

I realize if they had 3 real d-lineman on the field and 2 OLB then we would still have only DJ behind them and he has been very inconsistent this year as well. What about 3 DL, 1 OLB (Houston), and 2 ILB on the field in obvious running situations? What about 2 DL , 2 OLB and more of Ragland and DJ in there in obvious running situations?

 

I realize any time you are loading up against the run you are compromising your ability to cover the pass, but if you can't stop the run first and force them into 3rd and longs, it doesn't matter anyway. This defense is flawed no matter who they put out there though. Ford is terrible vs. the run. Zombo offers nothing as a pass rusher. Sorenson looks to be overmatched in all phases.

 

Sutton loves to run with 6DBs and 3 safeties, but at what point does he realize that Sorenson is not capable of filling Berry's role in ANY capacity, and start making adjustments?

Outstanding post.

[Mloe68 1,521]

Well more often than not we only have 2 real d-lineman on the field don't we? I really think some of this is schematic and personnel related. Playing dime with Berry in there acting as "a second ILB" is ok because he is a stud against the run. Sorenson is AWFUL there.

 

So I don't understand why they won't run more nickel. Either use 3 ACTUAL d-lineman or 2 ACTUAL ILB on the field. Instead of 2 d-lineman, 2 OLB, 1 ILB and a SS in the box.

 

I realize if they had 3 real d-lineman on the field and 2 OLB then we would still have only DJ behind them and he has been very inconsistent this year as well. What about 3 DL, 1 OLB (Houston), and 2 ILB on the field in obvious running situations? What about 2 DL , 2 OLB and more of Ragland and DJ in there in obvious running situations?

 

I realize any time you are loading up against the run you are compromising your ability to cover the pass, but if you can't stop the run first and force them into 3rd and longs, it doesn't matter anyway. This defense is flawed no matter who they put out there though. Ford is terrible vs. the run. Zombo offers nothing as a pass rusher. Sorenson looks to be overmatched in all phases.

 

Sutton loves to run with 6DBs and 3 safeties, but at what point does he realize that Sorenson is not capable of filling Berry's role in ANY capacity, and start making adjustments?

Interesting. The safety in the box concept has generally served us well with that diversity but as you say Sorenson is awful there. I don't think he's a bad safety but seems generally misused and asked to do more than his talent level suggests. We also have a situation where Ford can't set the edge st all and the only reliable guy who can get after the QB HAS to be used elsewhere just as much. It would be a godsend if Tamba could actually come back and give us some extra pressure.

I'm going to look more into these alignment scenarios. That's very interesting. I do know it wasn't the two man front the Broncos were gouging us in yesterday.

[Dablueguy 0]

Well more often than not we only have 2 real d-lineman on the field don't we? I really think some of this is schematic and personnel related. Playing dime with Berry in there acting as "a second ILB" is ok because he is a stud against the run. Sorenson is AWFUL there.

 

So I don't understand why they won't run more nickel. Either use 3 ACTUAL d-lineman  or 2 ACTUAL ILB on the field. Instead of 2 d-lineman, 2 OLB, 1 ILB and a SS in the box.

 

I realize if they had 3 real d-lineman on the field and 2 OLB then we would still have only DJ behind them and he has been very inconsistent this year as well. What about 3 DL, 1 OLB (Houston), and 2 ILB on the field in obvious running situations? What about 2 DL , 2 OLB and more of Ragland and DJ in there in obvious running situations?

 

I realize any time you are loading up against the run you are compromising your ability to cover the pass, but if you can't stop the run first and force them into 3rd and longs, it doesn't matter anyway. This defense is flawed no matter who they put out there though. Ford is terrible vs. the run. Zombo offers nothing as a pass rusher. Sorenson looks to be overmatched in all phases.

 

Sutton loves to run with 6DBs and 3 safeties, but at what point does he realize that Sorenson is not capable of filling Berry's role in ANY capacity, and start making adjustments?

Unfortunately, I don't think at any point.  They just seem to love Sorenson, no matter how he plays.  

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

Interesting. The safety in the box concept has generally served us well with that diversity but as you say Sorenson is awful there. I don't think he's a bad safety but seems generally misused and asked to do more than his talent level suggests. We also have a situation where Ford can't set the edge st all and the only reliable guy who can get after the QB HAS to be used elsewhere just as much. It would be a godsend if Tamba could actually come back and give us some extra pressure.

I'm going to look more into these alignment scenarios. That's very interesting. I do know it wasn't the two man front the Broncos were gouging us in yesterday.

As a third safety he was quite serviceable. Forced into a starting role and having a DC who does not change things regardless of who we play against has worked against him. In years past we have had some combo of Parker, Abdullah, Branch, Berry back there when rolling with 3 safeties. We don't have that kind of talent there now, but Sutton is running the same formations and plays. Maybe I'm wrong, but it just seems to me that a schematic adjustment may benefit the whole defense.

 

I'm very surprised that they started Acker. Even that adjustment surprised me, but they were still playing with Sorenson down in the box quite a bit, and that guy just provides nothing in the run game.

[sith13 1,746]

Chiefs have been worse in both running the ball and stopping the run compared to the beginning of the year. These two areas will probably determine how this season ends for us. 

[Legend of AC 269]

Agreed across the board. Except for the idea that we have as good a chance as any to win the SB. If this team doesn't make some adjustment and start stopping the run more consistently then competent opposing offenses are going to continue being able to do whatever they want against us.

 

As good as our offense looked early this season, this is not a team I want playing shootouts. I'm not saying we need a top 5 unit on both sides of the ball, but we can't expect to win a Superbowl, or even play in one, with run defense like this.

This. And I’m still not sure how we stop Le’Veon Bell if we have to play the Steelers again.

[Mloe68 1,521]

Good news is not only do we have a huge lead in the division but reinforcements are on the way. Nelson back on the field, Tamba pulled from PUP and will start practicing today, Morse back, LDT practicing. That's significant starting talent that should really help as they work their way back into playing form after the bye week. It's a long second half though and who knows what injuries will come from us and other but overall for right now we couldnt ask for much more than 6-2 and getting healthy.

 

I'll add I thought with our too two draft choices basically getting redshirt years plus the release of Maclin we would take a step back this year and be about 4-4 on our way to 8-10 wins.

[Legend of AC 269]

Good news is not only do we have a huge lead in the division but reinforcements are on the way. Nelson back on the field, Tamba pulled from PUP and will start practicing today, Morse back, LDT practicing. That's significant starting talent that should really help as they work their way back into playing form after the bye week. It's a long second half though and who knows what injuries will come from us and other but overall for right now we couldnt ask for much more than 6-2 and getting healthy.

 

I'll add I thought with our too two draft choices basically getting redshirt years plus the release of Maclin we would take a step back this year and sir about 4-4 on our way to 8-19 wins.

Hopefully Hali has something/anything left in the tank. At this point any pass rush help is welcome.

[SEMO 6,811]

Any word on Ehinger?

[artsy 1,137]

Any word on Ehinger?

I've been waiting on his return also. He's been a healthy scratch for about 3 wks now. Don't know what's going on with him...I wonder if they feel like Witzman/Fulton is outperforming him???

If so, then Ehinger definitely needs to stay on the bench..

[jetlord 10,209]

Ehinger played okay last season for a rookie thrust into a starting role.  If he has the physical make up, he should get better with experience.  So I don't see how he lost his job to Witzman while injured.  Witzman hasn't been tearing it up there.  Fisher, Ehinger, Morse, LDT, and Swartz is not a bad line up.  Hopefully, we'll see them together after the bye.

[MisChief-Maker 135]

THIS is the latest update from Ehinger himself on his IG account. Boy, he had a terrible combination of injuries there so it's no surprise why they are taking things slow with the young man. Hopefully, after the bye week, we will see him start to get some snaps on the field.

[12go4kcinva 22]

Season half over...6-2...awesome. The back half will be easier..hopefully. All of us as fans want the same thing..the ring..and honestly anything but that becomes a good swing, good try, and the same echo I hear year after year..."next year." When the Royals finished off their drought...it was relief..1986 was the last hurrah right? Long stretch. With the Chiefs...being a fan from birth (1969)..i was still shutting in my diapers when we won it all last. While all of my elders celebrated, my only need was that shitty pureed Gerber green bean crap..been a long time. I predict we fall short again..due to an overall lack of balance. Defense was not my concern coming into this season..now it's the biggest reason that ring won't fit this year..

[MisChief-Maker 135]

We've been dealt one of the toughest hands though. We're in what many describe to be "the hardest division", then to top it off more often than not we're meeting Pit and NE in the playoffs. One has the most SB's in history, and the other has had perhaps the greatest NFL coach ever and have enjoyed the best run of success the NFL has ever seen. So we've had it very tough but still, we keep fighting and now we're without doubt one of the most dominant teams in the entire country. IF Andy can lead us to an SB victory I truly believe it will be the start of an era of dominance by us, I really do. The one thing that gives me hope is we just keep knocking at the door. And the more we're in the playoff discussion the more chances we have of realising our dreams. Sooner, rather than later, they are bound to come true.

[DieHard 2,061]

Dirty Dan is subpar in deep safety help and run supporting the box. But that is why he is a backup. I hope Murray starts getting it more and can replace Dan as the starter.

 

I thought no they invite the run between the twenties with those formations by design because we are worried about our pass defense.

 

You notice when the field shrinks, we are less committed to stopping the deep pass play and do better against the run.

[jetlord 10,209]

So much for predictions.  BUF lost a game marked down as a win and HOU loses Watson for the year.  Guess I'll keep my day job.

[Calichief 3,016]

So much for predictions. BUF lost a game marked down as a win and HOU loses Watson for the year. Guess I'll keep my day job.

Idk, Jets have been in almost every game and had leads in 3 losses. Josh m has been balling for the jets big time.

[Mloe68 1,521]

Gotta add Alex Smith is on pace 4,300 yards, 32 TDs, 0 INTs. Will he actually get to 4,000 yards or 30 TDs?