What the Chiefs should do with Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes

[kcchief4lif 910]

This pretty much sums up my thoughts.

 

That said, Alex’s last 3 games (if the film vs the Bills looks ANYTHING like I think it is going to) have been utterly horrific. 5 of his last 7 have been terrible, with only the Raider and Bronco games being solid on his part. That alone would make me question things, because good quarterbacks generally don’t have that many bad games in that short a time span.

 

However, it’s the WAY Alex has struggled that has brought me to where I’m at. The Chiefs are getting throttled by cover 2 and middle field closed coverage zones, both of which are quite basic defenses that NFL quarterbacks have seen a million times. However, the Chiefs simply CANNOT find an answer to them.

 

In the last 3 games, against 1 “meh” defense and 2 absolutely terrible defenses, the Chiefs have mustered 36 points TOTAL (only 6 more than they were averaging per game not too long ago). In other words, the Chiefs have been literally the worst offense in football with regards to scoring output as of late.

 

People have been attempting to blame the defense (and given its struggles earlier this season, I can understand that), but for weeks now the defense has done enough to win games, only faltering when asked to repeatedly carry the burden for an offense that can’t move the chains and can’t score points.

 

Today’s game was a classic example. The Chiefs defense forced the Bills to punt on 3 straight possessions to start the game. The Chiefs offense responded... by scoring literally no points and gaining literally no first downs. Then, after the Bills managed to score a TD and a FG (on a pair of short fields thanks to the offense continuing to go 3-and-out... the offense responded with its ONLY FIRST DOWN OF THE FIRST HALF.

 

I want you to think about that. The offense was so horrifically inept against a bad defense that the Bills had 7 possessions in the first half. Last season NFL offenses averaged about 11 possessions a game. THAT is how an offense destroys a defense; by forcing it to be perfect over and over and over again. Eventually, the defense will falter. It will just happen. It is absolutely inevitable.

 

Then, in the 2nd half, after allowing a field goal, the Chiefs defense forced 4 straight punts (3 of which were the result of 3-and-out drives) to give the offense a chance to get back in the game. And they couldn’t do it. The defense even made a highly critical stop vs the Bills rushing attack (you know, that run defense we’ve all mocked all season) right outside the 2 minute warning to give the ball back to the offense with a chance to win the game.

 

You know what happened.

 

Make no mistake... it is the offense that is the problem in Kansas City right now. Not the defense. The offense is scoring at a league-worst rate, not moving the ball, and is generally looking completely dysfunctional.

 

Now that we’ve established that, let’s talk about Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes. I’m not going to attempt to talk you into the idea that Mahomes will be good if he starts next week. I have no idea what he’d look like.

 

What I CAN say, with a lot of confidence, is that Mahomes will almost certainly not result in a WORSE offense than what we’re currently seeing. And so begins the “it’s time to talk about Mahomes” conversation. The way I’m going to do this is simple: I’m going to take a few of the most common arguments people have given against starting Mahomes and explain why they are, in my opinion, incorrect.

 

“Starting Mahomes means giving up on the playoffs. The Chiefs are in the hunt, they can’t go with a rookie QB down the stretch. Veterans will mutiny.”

 

As I said above, the Chiefs are currently playing the worst offensive football in the league right now. Unless you believe that Mahomes will be on the same level of, say, Tyler Palko or Tom Savage, there’s no reason to believe the output will actually get WORSE than it currently is.

 

In fact, a strong argument can be made that the offensive output will be better. Even if you factor in turnovers (which, by the way, considering Alex has thrown 4 picks in the last month, isn’t exactly the most convincing way to argue in his favor), the fact is that a Mahomes-led offense will undoubtedly produce more big plays. Big plays = points. It is written in stone in the NFL. Heck, we all SAW that earlier in the season.

 

 

 

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/11/26/16702708/what-the-chiefs-should-do-with-alex-smith-and-patrick-mahomes

[oldtimer 8,687]

glad to see you gave credit to the author of the article 

 AS11 has fallen off the cliff and its just a matter of time until either the Bolts or Raiders catch up or surpass us..maybe both.

 

I didn't watch much of the game. The Eagles game was much more entertaining in the aspect of watching a good team play football the way it should be played.

 

 Reid's post game presser and seeing Kelce's  throwing up his hands during the Int told me all I need to know.. the ship is taking on water quickly. The players have given up . Whether it's Reid burn out or AS11 burnout I dont now  but it will be along  few weeks until this season is over. I pray they dont make the playoffs. They dont deserve it.

[kcchief4lif 910]

I pray they dont make the playoffs. They dont deserve it.

Same here OT.

[FANATIC 852]

Seriously using prayers for this?  So God will respond to this? Really? Its like..... an evil wish/prayer? 

 

Maybe SATAN should be consulted? 

[qnet 1,150]

 

The problem isn’t Reid’s system. Talk to me about screens all you want, I’m telling you, guys are open down the field. The worse Alex plays, the more tightly you’ll see Reid control the offense with screens and quick shots. But that’s a reactionary move by Reid when Alex is struggling, NOT Reid playing his preferred system. You want to know what his preferred system is? Turn on the film from the first 5 weeks, which features concepts other teams are still copying. The problem. Ain’t. Andy.

 

 

 

This is the part that got my attention. 

[Calichief 3,016]

Kelce is a mahomes advocate

[NChiefsCorner 496]

Kelce's reaction to when he was wide open for a TD and Alex Smith didn't get him the ball told me everything.

[Dablueguy 0]

This is the part that got my attention. 

That, and THIS.   Or THIS and THAT:   

 

 if you watch the film, you’ll see Alex repeatedly make pressure worse by getting happy feet, moving off his “spot” in the pocket (which ruins the angles linemen are trying to work, as they can’t see the QB move), and even running into pressure.

Just watching Alex play you can see a quarterback who has lost all trust in his line, and is looking to bail the second things look even a little bit off. And if you think it’s the line’s fault, note how well Alex played against the Eagles and the Redskins, when there was plenty of pressure on Alex. HE was different, not the line. And when your QB is seeing shadows out there, it makes everything else worse.

[Legend of AC 269]

Really good article, and Seth lays it out very clearly. I think we’ve all had enough of Alex Smith at this point, but I can’t see Andy making this change. It’s the Chiefs people, we’re not this lucky.

[Troyofoc 361]

Andy won't make the move this year

[Dablueguy 0]

Andy won't make the move this year

Not so sure.   I think he still may this week, but if Alex is AGAIN the reason why we lose next week, He Will make a change.   It may not be to Mahomes, but he will make a change.  

[Lamardirts 2,114]

I agree with DBG, Alex will get one more week but if we lose things could change. I truly think they was to give Mahomes this first full year to learn and grow into his role not be forced into an almost impossible situation as a rookie savior. Andy is protecting Alex for as long

As he can, but he sees what we all see and you can only protect for so long.

[PhataLerror 370]

[Andy] sees what we all see and you can only protect for so long.

Alex detractors flatter themselves.

[Thegoatee 1,780]

If we lose next week, we lose to an ancient journeyman in McCown with a team with worse WRs than we have. That is about as bad as it gets, save losing to Cutler or Moore, with this years schedule.

[sith13 1,746]

I think it's pretty obvious that Chiefs won't be getting anything higher than a 4th or something like that for Smith and that's from a team no FA will want to sign (Browns may be?) just to avoid the FA hassle. 

 

Reid is on the hook for this mess and if he doesn't fix it soon I'm pretty sure Hunt won't be asking him about the new OC coming in at the end of the season. Reid could and should lose some of his staff as well. So I'm guessing he makes the switch soon.

[kccrow 529]

Absolutely agree. There is no way that Mahomes makes the results worse unless he goes out there and has a Peterman-esque debut, and I find that to be highly doubtful. I really don't think he's going to miss wide open receivers streaking deep for TDs given the way this kid played in college. Mahomes is the anti-Smith in terms of attacking vertically. The time to make the change has never been better. 

[soonerborn77 276]

Alex detractors flatter themselves.

Who’s to blame this week, maybe the temperature or maybe the game balls, surely it is everyone else but Alex

[liquidfriend 1,151]

You play Smith until the end. Get what you can get out of him, or just cut him if you get nothing.

 

Wash your hands of any possible controversy.

[Mloe68 1,521]

You play Smith until the end. Get what you can get out of him, or just cut him if you get nothing.

 

Wash your hands of any possible controversy.

This is the most likely result. Andy wants to ride these veterans to the end and then we move in a completely different direction as they build around Mahomes with an entire offseason plan. But if Alex insists on throwing away our season, he may force Andy to reconsider. History suggests Alex will rebound at least for a few games. But then again I've never see him play worse and expect that All-22 breakdown to say the same.