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Chiefs Chiefs can flip dire cap situation with some prudence this spring

By Terez A. Paylor

tpaylor@kcstar.com

March 09, 2018 02:11 PM

Updated 1 hour 59 minutes ago

When the new league year begins at 3 p.m. on March 14, cap relief will come quickly for the cash-strapped Chiefs, who stand to sit roughly $20 million under their adjusted salary cap of $179.8 million for 2018 once two trades are finalized and multiple players are released.

“It reminds me of the Jets when John Idzik took over (in 2013), that they had some natural exit points on contracts, so what seemed to be a dire situation actually was easily solvable,” former agent and salary-cap expert Joel Corry said. “We’ve seen (the Chiefs) have already started to do that.”

The trade of quarterback Alex Smith to Washington will clear $16.4 million in cap space. The release of inside linebacker Derrick Johnson will clear another $8 million. The trade of cornerback Marcus Peters of the Los Angeles Rams will clear $1.2 million more. And there's more. The impeding retirement or release of linebacker Tamba Hali and release of safety Ron Parker will clear $7.7 million each, and if the Chiefs release defensive lineman Allen Bailey, that's another $6 million.

So even if the Chiefs tender one of their two restricted free agents, defensive lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches and inside linebacker Ramik Wilson, they will have a little money to play with.

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“You’re going to be slightly under $30 million, around $28 million,” Corry said.

Now, that number will shrink fairly quickly. Most teams like to keep $3 million to $5 million in emergency funds on hand, and even though the Chiefs haven’t done that in recent years, Veach could easily opt to do so this year. And assuming they keep all eight of their draft picks — once the Smith and Peters trades are completed on March 14 — that should eat up a few million more.

So that will give the Chiefs roughly $20 million to spend, which is enough to land a few high-level players when the "legal tampering period" starts on Monday.

For instance, Miami signed defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh a few years ago for $12 million per year. That contract included a first-year cap number of only $6 million, and receiver Jeremy Maclin’s $55 million deal with the Chiefs a few years ago included a first-year cap number of around $3.5 million.

But while the Chiefs are expected to target a number of second-contract players — young, ascending guys who are coming off their rookie deals and entering their physical prime — they also have their own free agents to deal with.

Corry, for instance, estimates guard Zach Fulton — a valuable reserve and part-time starter who can play three positions along the interior line — and receiver Albert Wilson, who is coming off a career year following a late-season bump to the Chiefs’ No. 2 wideout spot, are in line for decent salary increases.

“Any guard that was worth his salt last year was above $7 million, with like $15 million guaranteed,” Corry said. “And I’m putting Albert Wilson at the lowest end of a No. 2 receiver.”

Defensive tackle Bennie Logan was the Chiefs’ best interior defensive lineman last season, at least when it came to stopping the run. Corry suggests he could get a nice deal if someone becomes enamored with him.

“The elite run stoppers make about $12 million per year,” Corry said of Logan, who settled for a one-year, $8 million prove-it deal in a tepid market last spring. “You’re at least talking Jonathan Hankins money … and maybe you think about bringing Dontari Poe back. I think I’d rather pay Poe $12 million than Bennie Logan.”

The Chiefs have also been linked to 28-year-old Star Lotuleiei, a run-stuffing free-agent defensive linemen from Carolina who Corry suggests could earn something in the neighborhood of $27 million over three years, and 28-year-old lineman Muhammad Wilkerson, who is gifted but coming off a tumultuous season with the Jets.

“Has to be a one-year prove-it deal for Wilkerson,” Corry said. “No one’s going to pay him anything remotely close to what he was making, so he should probably be on his best behavior this year and try to get back close to what he was making, if he can, next year.”

 

And if the Chiefs want to upgrade at receiver, the Rams’ Sammy Watkins — who has dealt with some injuries but at 24 remains very explosive — and the Seahawks’ field-stretching Paul Richardson, 25, could be intriguing fits for an offense that Veach hinted could use more speed to match Patrick Mahomes’ top-notch arm strength.

But the Chiefs’ best bet, Corry suspects, is to sit out the first wave of free agency and see who overprices themselves. Seahawks defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson, a 27-year-old former Missouri Tiger, could be a candidate for that, he said.

“The way they utilized him in Seattle, it’s not like he was a disruptive force in terms of putting pressure on the quarterback,” Corry said. “He’s probably gonna think, ‘Hey, I’m better than my old teammate, Mo Wilkerson,’ but I’m not paying him that.”

And if the Chiefs really want to get bold, they can make a play for Seahawks superstar Richard Sherman, a 29-year-old three-time All-Pro who has foregone an agent and is now representing himself. But Corry doesn’t see Sherman going cheap, even if he’s released instead of traded.

“He’s probably going to think, ‘I’m a top corner; I want what these other guys are getting,’” Corry said. “These guys are making $14 million. He’s gonna think, ‘Hey, I don’t need to take a pay cut — maybe I should get a raise. Cap’s gone up since I did my deal.’”

Corry is keenly interested to see how the market for Sherman shakes out.

“Teams are really uncomfortable dealing with a player representing himself because there’s no buffer, so anything you say negatively could potentially create hard feelings,” he said.

There’s also a chance Veach opts to sit on most of his cap space and roll it over to next year, which is something teams do when they have a lot of potential extensions ahead of them. After next year, the Chiefs will be able to extend No. 1 receiver Tyreek Hill, 24, and their most disruptive pass-rushing defensive lineman, Chris Jones, 23.

Both should command eight-figure paydays on their current track, and the Chiefs will need to pay one early because a team can only franchise one player per offseason.

“Oh, Tyreek Hill is gonna be an expensive one,” Corry said with a laugh. “That’s gonna make Jeremy Maclin’s old deal and Dwayne Bowe’s old deal look like chump change by the time that rolls around. And Jones, that’s gonna be a big one. It’s gonna be at least Justin Houston money, if he’s that disruptive.”

Center Mitch Morse, 25, will also be a free agent after next season, and Corry said the market for good centers is around $8 million-plus per year. The Chiefs love cornerback Kendall Fuller, acquired from Washington in the Smith trade, and he’ll be just 24 when his rookie deal runs out in two years.

Fuller will be eligible for an extension after next season as well, and if he’s as good as the Chiefs think he’ll be, he could command shutdown-cornerback money. Even if he’s merely good, he won’t be cheap to retain.

“Then you’re talking Logan Ryan, Robert Alford, $10-million-per-year-type money, and those deals will be old by then,” Corry said.

The Chiefs could create a little extra money if they want. Approximately $7.9 million could be cleared by releasing Justin Houston, but Corry doesn’t see the logic in cutting a 29-year-old who led the Chiefs in sacks (9½) and hurries (20) in 2017.

“Show me a guy who can get to the passer,” Corry said. “I guarantee if you get rid of Justin Houston, in a weak pass rusher market, he’s getting a raise.”

Corry's cap estimation doesn't factor in the $8.7 million that could be saved by releasing outside linebacker Dee Ford — if he passes his physical, of course. Veach seemed to hint at the NFL Combine last week that releasing Ford is unlikely, and this makes sense to Corry.

“To me, you keep him on the option just because you’re getting rid of Tamba, the pass rush stinks anyway,” Corry said. “What if he’s the second coming of DeMarcus Lawrence?"

Lawrence, the 25-year-old defensive end for the Dallas Cowboys, has dealt with injury issues in the past but shined in a contract year in 2017, racking up 14½ sacks.

“There’s no need to do something with Justin or Dee. Why would get rid of the only consistent pass rusher you have, and a promising pass-rusher who once had 10 sacks?”

All things considered, Corry believes the Chiefs would be wise to save most of their money. Big expenses are looming down the road, and he’s not thrilled with this year's free-agent pool.
 

“This is not the strongest group, overall, of free agents,” Corry said. “It may be better not to spend than to overpay someone who is not quite at the level of the money they’re getting. You don’t throw good money after bad.”

Chiefs' 2018 salary-cap numbers

Here are the salary-cap numbers for each Chiefs player on the roster as of Friday, March 9. With the NFL setting the 2018 salary cap at $177.2 million, the Chiefs, who are carrying over $2.6 million in cap room from a year ago, are $11.35 million over the cap. Many of these salaries will come off the books by the time the new league year begins at 3 p.m. on Wednesday, March 14, however. All numbers are approximate.

2018 NFL salary cap: $177.2 million
 

Chiefs' cap carryover from 2017: $2.6 million

Chiefs' adjusted 2018 cap: $179.8 million

Total cap room right now: -$11.35 million

CHIEFS' 2018 SALARY CAP FIGURES
 

Player, age, cap number, year contract runs through:

QB Alex Smith, 33, $20.6M, 2018

OLB Justin Houston, 29, $20M, 2020

S Eric Berry, 29, $13M, 2022

LT Eric Fisher, 27, $11.4M, 2021

TE Travis Kelce, 28, $9.9M, 2021

OLB Tamba Hali, 34, $9.3M, 2018

OLB Dee Ford, 26, $8.7M, 2018

ILB Derrick Johnson, 35, $8M, 2018

DE Allen Bailey, 28, $7.9M, 2018

RT Mitchell Schwartz, 28, $7.7M, 2020

S Ron Parker, 30, $7.3M, 2019

RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, 27, $5.3M, 2022

S Daniel Sorensen, 28, $5.3M, 2020

QB Patrick Mahomes, 22, $3.7M, 2020

CB Marcus Peters, 25, $3M, 2018

TE Demetrius Harris, 26, $2.3M, 2018

WR Chris Conley, 25, $2M, 2018

CB Steven Nelson, 25, $2M, 2018

RB Charandrick West, $2M, 2018

CB David Amerson, 26, $1.8M, 2018

RB Spencer Ware, 26, $1.8M, 2018

OL Cameron Erving, 25, $1.7M, 2018

DL Chris Jones, 23, $1.6M, 201

C Mitch Morse, 25, $1.4M, 2018

OLB Frank Zombo, 31, $1.3M, 2018

LG Bryan Witzmann, 27, $1.3M, 2018

OLB Tanoh Kpassagnon, 23, $982K, 2020

ILB Reggie Ragland, 24, $981K, 2019

LS James Winchester, 28, $830K, 2021

TE Orson Charles, 27, $790K, 2018

OL Parker Ehinger, 25, $789K, 2019

S Eric Murray, 24, $788K, 2019

RB Kareem Hunt, 22, $778K, 2020

WR Demarcus Robinson, 23, 768K, 2019

DL T.Y. McGill, 25, $737K, 2018

RB Akeem Hunt, 25, $705K, 2018

CB Keith Reaser, 26, $705K, 2018

WR Tyreek Hill, 23, $704K, 2019

OLB Dadi Nicolas, 25, $669K, 2019

WR Jehu Chesson, 24, $668K, 2020

TE Jace Amaro, 25, $630K, 2018

CB Sheldon Price, 26, $630K, 2018

DL Mike Purcell, 26, $630K, 2019

RB George Atkinson II, 25, $630K, 2019

OLB Tyrone Holmes, 24, $630K, 2019

ILB Terrance Smith, 24, $630K, 2018

ILB Ukeme Eligwe, 23, $614K, 2020

WR Daniel Braverman, 24, $555K, 2019

K Harrison Butker, 22, $555K, 2018

CB Makinton Dorleant, 25, $555K, 2019

OL Dillon Gordon, 24, $555K, 2019

DT Justin Hamilton, 24, $555K, 2018

OL Kaleb Johnson, 25, $555K, 2019

S Leon McQuay, 23, $555K, 2019

CB Ashton Lampkin, 24, $484K, 2019

S Jordan Sterns, 23, $483K, 2019

S Devin Chappell, 23, $482K, 2019

NT Josh Augusta, 23, $480K, 2018

WR Gehrig Dieter, 25, $480K, 2019

TE Anthony Firkser, 23, $480K, 2019

CB Prince Charles Iworah, 24, $480K, 2018

WR Marcus Kemp, 22, $480K, 2018

CB Will Redmond, 24, $480K, 2019

WR Brandon Shippen, 23, $480K, 2018

OL Andrew Wylie, 23, $480K, 2019

DEAD MONEY VIA TRADES OR RELEASE

Player, dead money:

WR Jeremy Maclin, $4.8M

OL Jah Reid, $775K

S Leon McQuay, $82K

CB D.J. White, $78K

ILB D.J. Alexander, $41K

OG Damien Mama, $16K

WR Gehrig Dieter, $3K

CB J.R. Nelson, $3K

WR Marcus Kemp, $1.6K

WR Tony Stevens, $1.6K

WR Alonzo Moore, $1K

OL Corin Brooks, $1K

PENDING CHIEFS FREE AGENTS

Exclusive-rights free agents: Just CB Keith Baxter

Description: Any veteran with less than three accrued seasons. They cannot negotiate with anyone unless the team that owns their rights declines to offer them the minimum tender. Inside linebacker Terrance Smith was in this category, but it appears the club offered him a tender.

Restricted free agents: ILB Ramik Wilson, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches

Description: Any veteran with fewer than four accrued seasons. If one of these players doesn’t have a new contract by 3 p.m. on March 14, the Chiefs can put a qualifying offer on him, and he can negotiate with other teams. If the player gets an offer from another team and the Chiefs decide not to match it, the Chiefs will get a draft pick from that team commensurate with the tender they put on the player. These can range from a first-round pick to a second-round pick to the round the player was originally drafted in.

Unrestricted free agents: DT Bennie Logan, CB Darrelle Revis, ILB Derrick Johnson, P Dustin Colquitt, FB Anthony Sherman, WR Albert Wilson, QB Tyler Bray, RB C.J. Spiller, DE Jarvis Jenkins, CB Phillip Gaines, CB Steven Terrell, OL Jordan Devey, WR De’Anthony Thomas. ILB Kevin Pierre-Louis, G Zach Fulton, CB Kenneth Acker, DT Stefan Charles

Description: Any veteran with four or more accrued seasons is able to sign with any team he pleases, with no right of first refusal to the team he's leaving. The exception is when a player is slapped with the franchise or transition tag, but no Chief fits this mold this year.

To reach Terez A. Paylor, call 816-234-4489 or send email to tpaylor@kcstar.com. Follow him on Twitter @TerezPaylor. Tap here to download the new Red Zone Extra app for iOS and Android devices.

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