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It Is Officially Time to Buy the Hype on Patrick Mahomes


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the question is about mahommes, not about the defense..

 

 

the hype is real... the arm strength is real.. the ultra fast release is real.. the accuracy is real. 

 

And that is all you need to know..

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Considering where he is in his development, I have to think that the offense will be fantastic, and the defense will be average. Special teams will be much better than average, especially with Harrison Butker.  I give +3 games to the offense, - 1 to the defense, and +1 to special teams. Add +1 for the coaching staff. That gives us 12 victories, assuming no key offensive injuries, like Kelce (a big if).  

 

Whatever happens, I will feel unafraid in the playoffs, if we get there, for the first time in forever.  I am most excited for the several HOLY SHIT! moments that Mahomes produces during the season...plays that make us say "OMG. Never seen anything like that before."

 

It pretty much depends on the defense.  I am thinking super bowl runs starting in 2019.

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I honestly think that the defense may be better due to addition by subtraction.  Other than Peters, we didn't lose anyone I'm unhappy about, and we get back Berry and add Hitchens.  We got rid of some dead weight and added young guys---that's how the defense will get better.

 

I realize the thread is about Mahomes, I'm just surprised that people think the offense will be better due to Mahomes but the overall team will be worse due to the defense.  I think it's much more likely the defense makes a mild improvement while Mahomes and the offense are inconsistent.  And I say that as someone who is pretty hyped for Mahomes and thinks we have at least a small chance at the best case scenario of Mahomes lighting the league on fire right out of the gate.

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I have said it before & i'll say it again. I wait till the 3rd pre season game to make my final call but 7-9 -- 9-7 seems about right and it just takes a lucky bounce of the ball a couple of times to determine. It really does not matter to me because we need the draft picks and PM needs time to grow.

It’s a good point about the next draft. If this team does happen to struggle for a year with so many new pieces, this could easily become a cornerstone type draft with instant impact.

 

We are just in a really good position right now with the divisions youngest team. .

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The defense was PFF's lowest rated defense last year. Nowhere to go but up. Or i guess stay the same, but we made the playoffs with that D and Alex Freakin Smith.

As bad as defensive stats were, they steadied the ship and were very solid down the stretch last season. It’s hard for me to gage whether there will be significant improvement with so much turnover.

I also find it unlikely that 1 start Pat Mahomes will play at the level a seasoned veteran in a career year did. His ceiling overall is way higher than Alex but in short term compared to last year,

All that said there’s certainly legit talen and coaching to win double digit games again. There’s also enough new questions at QB on offense and a lack of depth on defense where we could slip 2-3 games.

I love the overall position this franchise has put themselves in going forward either way.

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I honestly think that the defense may be better due to addition by subtraction. Other than Peters, we didn't lose anyone I'm unhappy about, and we get back Berry and add Hitchens. We got rid of some dead weight and added young guys---that's how the defense will get better.

 

I realize the thread is about Mahomes, I'm just surprised that people think the offense will be better due to Mahomes but the overall team will be worse due to the defense. I think it's much more likely the defense makes a mild improvement while Mahomes and the offense are inconsistent. And I say that as someone who is pretty hyped for Mahomes and thinks we have at least a small chance at the best case scenario of Mahomes lighting the league on fire right out of the gate.

It’s not just Mahomes. We added Watkins. We are getting Ware and Connely back. The line maybe has a healthier year I hope. I think we have serious upgrades to RB. The Williams boys look to have much more upside than West and Spiller. guys like Chesson and Robinson have another year under their belt. On paper that offense looks really good. Like to have a Pro Bowler or 2 on that line but great skill players.

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It’s not just Mahomes. We added Watkins. We are getting Ware and Connely back. The line maybe has a healthier year I hope. I think we have serious upgrades to RB. The Williams boys look to have much more upside than West and Spiller. guys like Chesson and Robinson have another year under their belt. On paper that offense looks really good. Like to have a Pro Bowler or 2 on that line but great skill players.

It will be interesting to see how Andy protects Mahomes especially early, but I suspect hiring a RB coach as coordinator and acquiring so much legit depth st the position is a pretty good indicator. I’m sure Andy has a plan for how to win games now while he goes about task of developing his young QB. They’ve made it clear this isn’t a rebuilding season. That said a slip backwards is certainly viable anyway.

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Considering where he is in his development, I have to think that the offense will be fantastic, and the defense will be average. Special teams will be much better than average, especially with Harrison Butker.  I give +3 games to the offense, - 1 to the defense, and +1 to special teams. Add +1 for the coaching staff. That gives us 12 victories, assuming no key offensive injuries, like Kelce (a big if).  

 

Whatever happens, I will feel unafraid in the playoffs, if we get there, for the first time in forever.  I am most excited for the several HOLY SHIT! moments that Mahomes produces during the season...plays that make us say "OMG. Never seen anything like that before."

 

It pretty much depends on the defense.  I am thinking super bowl runs starting in 2019.

I agree with most of your post, but I don't think I would give their coaching staff a +1 seeing that they lost their OC. Also I would put their ST at about even with last year.
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I agree with most of your post, but I don't think I would give their coaching staff a +1 seeing that they lost their OC. Also I would put their ST at about even with last year.

You could be right.  But I would always give an Andy-led team a +1 for coaching.  He only hires the best and prepares them to be successful HC's eventually, just like NAGY.  The whole league is populated by Andy people.  Plus, his playbook and the way he uses it tailored to his personnel is not common in the NFL.  He creates a great atmosphere, never talks shit about a player, and insists on aggressiveness in playing style.  I give all of that a +1 at least, Nagy or no Nagy.

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the question is about mahommes, not about the defense..

 

 

the hype is real... the arm strength is real.. the ultra fast release is real.. the accuracy is real.

 

And that is all you need to know..

Accuracy and decision making isn't all real yet

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You could be right.  But I would always give an Andy-led team a +1 for coaching.  He only hires the best and prepares them to be successful HC's eventually, just like NAGY.  The whole league is populated by Andy people.  Plus, his playbook and the way he uses it tailored to his personnel is not common in the NFL.  He creates a great atmosphere, never talks shit about a player, and insists on aggressiveness in playing style.  I give all of that a +1 at least, Nagy or no Nagy.

Yeah, I was reading somewhere that Andy and former assistants of his make up 25% of the NFL head coaches. That's pretty impressive.
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Hard to predict anything when over 50% of the Defense of the Defense from Week 1 2017 vs 2018 will be changed over.  Right now they seem to be pretty weak at corner.

 

Yes there was turn over, but it's not like the players the Chiefs lost/let go were quality starters. DJ, love him but father time caught up to him and his best games played in 2017 were when he was limited in snaps. The Chiefs picked up his replacement and he is a good ascending player. Hali? I don't need to say anything more. The Dline as a whole struggled and the people that are gone have been replaced. Neither the additions or the subtractions from that unit were significant in my opinion. That's a wait and see. The DB's is where there was a lot of turnover and rightfully so. The DB's last year flat out sucked for most of the season. Peters played off man coverage more times then I care to remember on 3rd and shorts. The second CB was a revolving door of suck. The safeties were lost. The Chiefs picked up players that are fundamentally sound in man coverage which is the style of defense Sutton tends to operate. No wonder him and Peters had a blow out. This defense will be better in 2018 then it was in 2017.

 

As for Mahomes and the offense. I expect a more high prolific passing offense with him. That said, I also expect more interceptions and that is going to be hard to get used to after Alex Smith carefulness with the football. If he can keep the TD:Int ratio at 2:1 or better then the Chiefs will win more then they lose.

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Yes there was turn over, but it's not like the players the Chiefs lost/let go were quality starters. DJ, love him but father time caught up to him and his best games played in 2017 were when he was limited in snaps. The Chiefs picked up his replacement and he is a good ascending player. Hali? I don't need to say anything more. The Dline as a whole struggled and the people that are gone have been replaced. Neither the additions or the subtractions from that unit were significant in my opinion. That's a wait and see. The DB's is where there was a lot of turnover and rightfully so. The DB's last year flat out sucked for most of the season. Peters played off man coverage more times then I care to remember on 3rd and shorts. The second CB was a revolving door of suck. The safeties were lost. The Chiefs picked up players that are fundamentally sound in man coverage which is the style of defense Sutton tends to operate. No wonder him and Peters had a blow out. This defense will be better in 2018 then it was in 2017.

 

As for Mahomes and the offense. I expect a more high prolific passing offense with him. That said, I also expect more interceptions and that is going to be hard to get used to after Alex Smith carefulness with the football. If he can keep the TD:Int ratio at 2:1 or better then the Chiefs will win more then they lose.

 

This is a great post, this really matches my thoughts exactly.  Although you need to learn the difference between "then" and "than."   :P

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Yes there was turn over, but it's not like the players the Chiefs lost/let go were quality starters. DJ, love him but father time caught up to him and his best games played in 2017 were when he was limited in snaps. The Chiefs picked up his replacement and he is a good ascending player. Hali? I don't need to say anything more. The Dline as a whole struggled and the people that are gone have been replaced. Neither the additions or the subtractions from that unit were significant in my opinion. That's a wait and see. The DB's is where there was a lot of turnover and rightfully so. The DB's last year flat out sucked for most of the season. Peters played off man coverage more times then I care to remember on 3rd and shorts. The second CB was a revolving door of suck. The safeties were lost. The Chiefs picked up players that are fundamentally sound in man coverage which is the style of defense Sutton tends to operate. No wonder him and Peters had a blow out. This defense will be better in 2018 then it was in 2017.

 

As for Mahomes and the offense. I expect a more high prolific passing offense with him. That said, I also expect more interceptions and that is going to be hard to get used to after Alex Smith carefulness with the football. If he can keep the TD:Int ratio at 2:1 or better then the Chiefs will win more then they lose.

Uh, where in my post said they were quality guys (outside of Peters)

 

Feel free to point it out.

 

I've been the one that called most these dudes worthless, when it wasn't cool to do so.

 

See my posts calling Ron Parker, Bennie Logan trash.

 

Even if you upgrade at every single spot, it's still a 50% or so turnover and nobody knows how well the remade D will work together (people always ignore that part) out the gate, or if every move was an actual upgrade.

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The Chiefs were right to purge the entire secondary this year. Peters and Nelson were the only contributing players in the secondary and Peters often was a liability by playing off his guy and ole’ tackling. I think Nelson is a legit, hard-nosed DB and will only get better. With the addition of Fuller and the return of Berry we are exponentially in better shape. We need players to step up at the second CB and S positions but I was glad we didn’t re-sign anyone. Berry can coach up the Rook and we can see if Amerson plays better in bump and run as projected.

 

The defense by no means a finished product but i think it has middle of the pack potential this year. With this offense that’s all you need. I know KC fans love great defenses but you just aren’t going to be elite on both sides of the ball in today’s NFL.

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I agree. Middle of the pack is a possibility. We have to generate a pass rush somehow, but I think Rags and Hitch in the middle will really help the run defense. Speaks should help as well. The line is a complete mystery to me with the rook and the FA.

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