season predictions

[liquidfriend 1,151]

Now that camp is underway for almost all 32 teams, time to kick this ol' thing off.

 

NFC North

 

1. Green Bay Packers

2. Minnesota Vikings

3. Detroit Lions

4. Chicago Bears

 

I think this will be a tight race between the Packers and Vikings.  Not really sold on the moves that the Lions made at all, but Stafford will keep them from being terrible.  First year Head Coach with no real HC experience, a coordinator lacking experience calling an Offense in the NFL and a shaky young QB.  I think the team could eventually pull it off, but not this year.

 

NFC South

 

1. New Orleans Saints

2. Carolina Panthers

3. Atlanta Falcons

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

I think these next 2 years will be it for the Brees era in New Orleans and they're going to go all in to close it out right. 

 

Panthers did a nice job getting Cam some quality weapons in the Offense and CJ Anderson was a decent add.  The Offensive Line is a concern and I wonder if they will keep Cam from missing some time.

 

I like the moves that the Falcons made mostly, but having a Julio Jones holdout is absolutely going to impact their season.

 

The Buccaneers are looking at a gloomy 0-3 start and I don't think they are talented enough to dig themselves out of a hole like that.  I think they're going to be wondering if Jameis is worth keeping and they will be cleaning house, again.

 

NFC East

 

1. Dallas Cowboys

2. Philadelphia Eagles

3. Washington Redskins

4. New York Giants

 

There hasn't been a repeat winner in the NFC East for over a decade and I don't think that's going away yet,

 

The Cowboys finally moved on from Dez Bryant and upgraded with Hurns, got a nice addition in the draft with Gallup and no longer have the dark cloud of a looming suspension hanging over the head of EE.  Irving suspension will hurt, but I think they have enough in place to work around it.

 

I think the combo of having a target on their back as the SB champs and a slow going Carson Wentz (I expect he will play Week 1) will have them lagging in the first half of the year. 

 

Alex Smith is a stable addition for the Washington Redskins, but I think the writers got it all wrong and Alex will be missing KC by November.  Not the other way around.

 

I'm not buying into Eli Manning at all.  He's been on the decline for a good minute, and I see the bottom falling out on him really soon.  Doesn't matter how damn good Barkley is--they are going to regret not taking Josh Rosen.

 

NFC West

 

1. San Francisco 49ers

2. Los Angeles Rams

3. Seattle Seahawks

4. Arizona Cardinals

 

The Rams are heavy NFC favorites this year, but I have to say that I really like 49ers here.  I think Jimmy Grapes is a better QB than Goff and adding Richard Sherman was a very underrated move.  McKinney is a proto-typical rat jr back.

 

The Rams have a nice allstar roster and I don't fault the philosophy of load up on talent while the QB is cheap, but gosh I don't know if all these additions are going to make for a great unified team.  Having Talib mentor Peters is a disaster waiting to happen, Suh is a massive ego to add on the DL when you've already got Aaron Donald (why is this dude still waiting to get paid?). 

 

Keep an eye on that Defensive front.  The DL is sick on paper, but they've got a fucking horrendous LB corp and they're going to regret getting rid of Ogletree and Quinn.

 

The Seahawks had about as big of a disaster of an Offseason that one single team could possibly have.  Somehow downgrade on asst coaches?  Check.  It's top flight secondary all gone now?  Check.  Not a good draft?  Check.  Fuck you Russell Wilson, we're not getting you better protection?  Check.  Fuck giving him some legit weapons too?  Check. 

 

Some losses this year: Kam Chancellor, Paul Richardson, Jimmy Graham, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Sheldon Richardson, Richard Sherman and (maybe) Earl Thomas. 

 

If it weren't for Wilson, this would be the worst team in the NFL.  Oh and Wilson is due a new deal soon, and they are acting like they aren't sure if he should get one.  Yikes.

 

And finally, Arizona.  I really like Josh Rosen's potential, but I think they need to do everything they literally can to keep him on the bench for the entire year.  He needs to spend some time adjusting to a program that isn't a joke, needs to add a bunch of NFL weight and the Cardinals need to build a better line for him.  If they can hold off and do all the things the right way, they're going to have a great future.

 

That future just isn't today.

 

AFC North

 

1. Cincinnati Bengals

2. Baltimore Ravens

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

4. Cleveland Browns

 

This is going to be a tight division from top to bottom.

 

Andy Dalton is the literal definition of fucking average.  Average looks, average player, average size, average person, average name, average lover, average everything.  Andy's success is completely team dependent and if you look back to last season, they had some real issues.

 

They had an Offensive Coordinator that didn't have a clue starting the year.  The OL was pretty damn bad, the receiver group past AJ Green was just horrendous.  Because of the OL, the running game was minimal and really they didn't fucking have shit.

 

Dumping Zampese for Lazor was an upgrade.  Cordy Glenn at LT is a major upgrade.  Shooting Russell Bodine out a fucking cannon and directly into the sun in favor of Billy Price was a gigantic upgrade.

 

The line upgrades, with a healthier Giovanni Bernard and a more experienced woman puncher guy will go a long way.  If Tyler Eifert and John Ross don't literally explode on the field, the receiving group will also be much better.

 

Billy Price, Jessie Bates, Sam Hubbard and Malik Jefferson was a strong run of picks for the Bengals.  Now they can shift one of the starting OT's from last year inside at Guard, which might be a better spot for Fisher.

 

Like we saw with Alex Smith last year, knowing that you're going to be looking for work in less than a year in the future is one hell of a motivator.  This team will belong to Lamar Jackson next year and Joe Flacco has to go out there and audition to the rest of the NFL for 16 games. 

 

He will have some help to do it this year with the additions of Michael Crabtree, Hayden Hurst, Mark Andrews and Willie Snead.  They also have a pretty underrated RB in Alex Collins.

 

Even with all the woes last year, they were still one complete shocker of a 4th down dagger away from the playoffs.  I think they make it in this year, which will make the questions in Baltimore very heavy.

 

I have the Steelers arrow pointing way down.  I don't think they have a good Defense what so ever and I think losing Todd Haley is going to be a blow to that Offense. 

 

The Browns are going to be a feisty team with Tyrod Taylor and all the additions they have made, but it's the AFC North and they just aren't good enough yet.  I don't see them having the #1 overall pick again, though so consider it a successful year.

 

AFC South

 

1.  Jacksonville Jaguars

2.  Houston Texans

3.  Tennessee Titans

4.  Indianapolis Colts

 

This is a really tough division to pick because I think all 4 of these teams have some major warts and the successful ones from 2017 seemed really fluky.

 

The Jaguars really were a giant surprise and kudos to Doug Marrone for overcoming the fact that Blake Bortles fucking sucks.  The better coaches just find a way.

 

The D is still legit, the rushing attack should still be strong and man if they keep Bortles attempts at a minimum I think they can repeat.  Getting a solid add with the kicker is a major boost to this squad.  The only major (and it's a big one) problem with this squad is they did not provide a real battle to Blake Bortles.  A battle against Cody Kessler means nothing.

 

I'm not as high on the Houston Texans as a lot of other people are, but I think they'll still be in the mix.  They aren't going to have the element of surprise any longer with the QB situation, they have no rushing attack and the Offensive Line is really bad.  Not good when your starting QB is returning from a season ending injury.

 

The Titans had incredible amounts of luck last season and made some real questionable moves during the offseason.  I'm not sold on going from LeBeau to Dean Pees.  I'm not sold on the concept of Mike Vrabel the Head Coach, at all.  I'm not sold on Marcus Mariota and Succop only really seems motivated when he plays in KC.

 

I don't see Luck being the same QB again, but even a lesser Andrew Luck is still better than at least 50% of the league.  The problem with the Colts is the Defense, being coordinated by a guy that the Head Coach didn't even hire.

 

They have no real pass-rushing threats, nothing amazing inside, forgettable linebackers and probably the worst sets of corners in the NFL.  Oh they also have to all learn an entirely new Defense.  Luck would probably have to avg over 40 points a game if they want to be a playoff threat.

 

The Jaguars have a giant question mark at QB, the Texans have one bad Offensive Line and no rushing attack, the Titans have question marks all around and the Colts are a project.

 

AFC East:

 

1. New England Patriots

2. Miami Dolphins

3. New York Jets

4. Buffalo Bills

 

Why would Tom Brady want to retire when it's a fucking walk in the park to a home playoff game?  Seriously, after the Patriots, it's really hard to choose which team sucks the least.

 

I really wasn't impressed with the Patriots Offense, but who the fuck is going to knock them off?  Nobody. 

 

Wynn was a major reach because they didn't want to pay Solder, which was a mistake.  Michel was very unlike the Patriots and seemed like the worst fit for Bill's team. 

 

They got some nice adds up front with Danny Sheldon and Adrian Claybourn and will get a boost with Hightower and Rivers returning.  I don't think it'll be enough though, and they created a big hole by treating Malcolm Butler like trash.  They still got Brady+Gronk and that's enough.

 

I think Miami is the best of the shit pool and that's mostly because ugh.  A healthy Tannehill will be a boost for the Offense,  He has an underrated group to work with in Parker, Stills, Wilson and Amendola with the addition of Gesicki at Tight End.

 

Quinn and Fitzpatrick were some great additions on Defense.

 

They will finally get Raekwon McMillan into uniform and Charles Harris should finally add a spark.  Xavien Howard has a ton of promise at CB.  Now that I break it down, honestly, the Dolphins don't seem to bad off if Tannehill isn't fucked.

 

The Jets are a scrappy squad and they had a decent draft, but I think they're a ways away.

 

The Bills are a fucking tire fire, which is odd because they finally gave that city hope.  But lets be real.

 

They have the worst QB room in the NFL and that awful stable of QB's really don't have any weapons to work with and they lost 2 key players on their Offensive Line.  Their prized FA acquisition, AJ McCarron, so far is being beat out by a QB that had one of the worst halves of professional football ever.

 

Josh Allen was the only way they could have fucked up with the position, and by golly, they fucked up.  Why did they hate Tyrod Taylor so fucking much?

 

AFC West

 

1. Kansas City Chiefs

2. Los Angeles Chargers

3. Oakland Raiders

4. Denver Broncos

 

This is going to be a tight enough division that I'm feeling 2 games will separate 4th and 1st place.  Why are the Chiefs #1?  Well, for two reasons.  First is they have a clear cut advantage with the Head Coach and getting back Eric Berry will give that Defense a big spark.

 

The biggest key for the Kansas City Chiefs will be boosting it's really bad run Defense and getting more from the return game.

 

I think this will be the start of Phillip Rivers final swan song and the team will be ready to make that final run before it's time to get a new QB.  Losing Hunter Henry sucks for them, but they got a nice boost with the steal in Derwin James and getting Forest Lamp back onto the field.

 

There are 3 major problems with this squad will be the injury bug (gl Okung staying healthy), the fact that Anthony Lynn isn't a very good coach and how streaky Melvin Gordon can be.  Right now I got them finishing 2nd and in the playoffs, but they are |    | that close to being last place.

 

This team will either be a playoff squad or trash this year and I don't think there will be a middle here.

 

Jon Gruden is rather overrated as a Coach, but he happens to constantly land some top tier D coordinators.  Guenter is a quality coordinator that will get the most out of his squad, but the holdout of Kalil Mack will have them reeling for answers. 

 

The secondary has potential, but question marks all around.  What can Gareon Conley provide?  Was Rashaan Melvin a flash in the pan?  Reggie Nelson is going to fall off at any point now.  Will it be soon?  Will Karl Joseph finally meet expectations consistently and what happened to Obi?  So far, they still look baby shit soft in the middle.

 

The receivers and running backs scare nobody and the Offensive success is going to rely completely on Amari Cooper bouncing back.  On the line, Donald Penn was a letdown in 2017 and so far is starting off 2018 on the PUP list.  Kolton Miller is a rookie, Gabe Jackson was a real let down in 2017, so it'll be interesting to see if he can rebound from his injury problems.  Kelechi Osemele was fine, but not as good as expected from him while Rodney was Rodney.

 

The line collectively has to play better and Tom Cable will be the gu......oh fuck, good luck.

 

The biggest thing for the Raiders is at Special Teams.  Giorgio Tavecchio did pretty poorly replacing Seabass as the kicker for the Raiders and they released their ace punter Marquette King because Jon Gruden hates fun. 

 

I'm not sold on Gruden being the fixer for the Oakland Raiders, as it feels more of a PR move by Davis to keep fans coming to the games. 

 

And finally, the Denver Broncos. 

 

To start, I'm not sold on Case Keenum.  He lucked out into a Cadillac of an Offense in Minnesota and I think he'll revert back to being a pumpkin in Denver. 

 

I like Royce Freeman, but I'm not sure if he'll be ready to carry that Offense right out the gate.  Receivers are a mix of rookies that aren't proven and slipping vets.

 

I think they have some pretty bad tackles on both sides of the ball and while Chubb will be great eventually, it won't be today and the loss of Talib will sting. Elway took a page from Carl Peterson and boy is he going to pay for it.

 

Playoffs:

 

NFC

1. New Orleans Saints

2. Dallas Cowboys

3. San Francisco 49ers

4. Green Bay Packers

5. Los Angeles Rams

6. Minnesota Vikings

 

AFC:

1. New England Patriots

2. Cincinnati Bengals

3. Kansas City Chiefs

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

5. Los Angeles Chargers

6. Baltimore Ravens

 

Wild Card:

49ers over Vikings

Rams over Packers

Chiefs over Ravens

Chargers over Jaguars

 

Divisional:

Saints over Rams

Cowboys over 49ers

Chiefs over Bengals

Patriots over Chargers

 

Conference

Saints over Cowboys

Patriots over Chiefs

 

Super Bowl:

Saints over Patriots

 

The Senior Citizen bowl.  I think this will be the end for both Brady and Brees, and the expectations in KC will be on the moon after nearly missing the SB in Pat's first year.  I think the Chiefs are real close to having a Super Bowl squad.  If they had kept Peters and kept him under control, and got a bounce back from Dee Ford, I think SB was realistic.  Not sure right now.

 

Top Pick:
Buffalo Bills

 

McKid takes over the Patriots

[DieHard 2,061]

Stealers finish 3rd behind the Bengals and the Ravens? That would be a surprise.

 

Flacco is aging like wine. Marcellus Wallis said, “If you mean it gets better? It don’t. If you meant it turns to vinegar? It does.”

[liquidfriend 1,151]

The Ravens got better while I think the Steelers got worse.

 

Flacco is going to this years Alex and he's going to have better targets to do it with. John Harbaugh is also coaching for his career for certain, too. I don't think they can afford to miss again.

 

The Steelers are dreadful on Defense without Shazier and I think they are taking a step back with an unproven OC vs Odd Todd.

[jetlord 10,209]

Good post, LF.  I have the Vikes over the Pack, and don't think PIT slips that much but pretty much agree with the rest.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

It's not that so much the Steelers will be real bad (although we're due for another Ben injury) as it's I think the Bengals and Ravens will improve and the Steelers will have a much tougher road.

 

Vikings were a Cinderella team last year and while I like Cousins more than Keenum, I don't think they will surprise anyone this year and I think their OL got much worse. Not good with a QB prone to melting down at times.

[sith13 1,746]

Even in our own fantasy approach we lose to the Pats in the playoffs 

 

I don't think Steelers end up as bad. They have a solid offense with many weapons behind a good OL and some young defensive talent that will be at least average. In fact they might have a few stars in the making with guys like Watt. I think they end up as the winners or the 2nd in the division. 

[Calichief 3,016]

It's not that so much the Steelers will be real bad (although we're due for another Ben injury) as it's I think the Bengals and Ravens will improve and the Steelers will have a much tougher road.

 

Vikings were a Cinderella team last year and while I like Cousins more than Keenum, I don't think they will surprise anyone this year and I think their OL got much worse. Not good with a QB prone to melting down at times.

That defense is incredible. That will carry them again.

Thanks for the breakdown. Good read LF

[Chiefsfan1963 1,101]

Revisiting

[liquidfriend 1,151]

Not as bad as I thought, but definitely not great lol.

Made this before the Bears traded for Khalil Mack.  Loved the trade and thought the Bears made a big step up in result.

What impresses me the most is how much the Jags D told Marrone to fuck off.