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Group II: The Rookies (or Almost Rookies) Here are the folks who are either debuting or practically debuting on the national stage this upcoming season. Bill Barnwell ESPN


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16. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

When the Chiefs traded up to grab the top guy on their draft board in 2017, they sealed Alex Smith's fate. What happened next could not -- and did not -- alter the plan. Smith produced the best season of his career and led the league in passer rating. The Chiefs fired the general manager who drafted Mahomes and lost much of their offensive brainpower when Matt Nagy left for the Bears. No matter. The Chiefs drafted Mahomes in 2017 to start in Week 1 of 2018. We're about to get there.

 

Organizations don't do this very often, in part because it's difficult to be spoiled for choice with quarterbacks. Teams peck and claw and stay up at night dreaming about getting someone like Smith, who virtually never throws his team out of a game and gets them back into it more often than the public thinks. Imagine a team like the Browns or the Jets being frustrated by a quarterback whose purported ceiling is 10 wins and a playoff loss. It's football privilege to shoot for a better quarterback than Smith, even given Smith's age (34) and cap number.

Teams have replaced their sitting Pro Bowl starter with an inexperienced backup for injury reasons, of course, but there aren't many recent examples of a team willingly trading or allowing a Pro Bowl passer to leave during the offseason while replacing them with a first-round pick sans track record.

You remember the most famous example, of course. The Packers traded Brett Favre after he retired and un-retired in the summer of 2007 to turn things over to Aaron Rodgers, who had thrown 59 career passes with a passer rating of 73.3. It worked out fine. Drew Brees actually tore his labrum in Week 17 of the 2005 campaign and would have likely made the Pro Bowl, but the Chargers sealed his fate beforehand by using their 2004 first-round pick on Eli Manning and subsequently trading for Philip Rivers.

The other recent example, perhaps not coincidentally, involves Andy Reid. The Eagles traded away Donovan McNabb after their longtime starter made it to the Pro Bowl and led the Eagles to the playoffs in 2009. McNabb was about to enter his age-34 season and had two years and $19.2 million in unguaranteed money left on his contract, but the Eagles didn't have the sort of clear succession path the Chiefs have with Mahomes.

Philly's plan was to turn the job over to Kevin Kolb. Their 2007 second-round pick had thrown seven interceptions in 130 pass attempts over two seasons, but he had been a wildly accurate quarterback in college and completed 64.6 percent of his passes over a 96-throw campaign while filling in for McNabb in 2009.

Things went awry almost immediately. Kolb went down with a concussion after throwing 10 passes in the opener against the Packers, an injury that would sadly crop up repeatedly throughout his career. Reid was forced to turn things over to Michael Vick, who had spent two years in jail before throwing 13 passes as Philadelphia's third-string quarterback in 2009. Vick excelled as Kolb's replacement and was named the starter after Week 2.

There's no Vick lurking on the roster for the Chiefs, who would have to turn things over to Chad Henne or Matt McGloin if Mahomes got hurt. The 2010 Eagles season reminds us of two truths about quarterbacks, which apply to these Chiefs. One is that we don't know whether a quarterback can stay healthy at the NFL level until he has actually pulled it off. The other is that Andy Reid can sure coach quarterbacks.

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I do take exception to a couple things.  Dorsey is not responsible for drafting Mahomes.  He said Veach was the one pounding the table on that one and Veach got Andy on board, which let's face it, without that happening we don't trade up for him.

The other thing is we didn't lose "much of our offensive brainpower" when Nagy left.  Reid is the mad genius.  This is fact.  What Nagy has he got from working with Andy.  What we lost was Nagy's ability to rein him in a little when he needed it.  Don't see why our new OC can't play that role as well.  

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