Mellinger - Its about 2019, not 2018

[CranjisMcbasketball 780]

25 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

Exactly. This is simply a realistic assessment of where we are and the plan to get where we want to go.  It doesn’t mean they aren’t trying to win now.  That’s absurd.   Just means we are trying to win within confines of a plan that realistically needs another offseason.  There was a price to pay for drafting Mahomes.  I’m fine with that!

 

Im not suggesting the chiefs staff isnt trying to win, only we as fans should not give them a pass of losing this year.

russel Wilson, rothlisberger, flacco,  carson wentz having their teams win superbowls while on their rookie contracts isnt a fluke.

its also why you see the rams going crazy in free agency this year, they know they have to pay their qb soon and are taking advantage of this window

[xen 1,010,220]

12 minutes ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

The players i am most specifically referring to are berry and houston. We have a lot of the cap tied into these two and have gotten almost zero return on investment. That was the unfortunate scenario i talk about.

when your qb makes no money you have a window to load the rest of your roster.

Our extra money is going to berry, houston, and now watkins.

We better hope watkin pans out, or the window of mahomes on a cheap contract will quickly close amd the opportunity will be lost.

we already wasted a year of him making no money with him sitting the bench.

honestly don’t see how anyone could disagree with these points as they aren’t opinions just the facts.

 

 

Yeah those 2 contracts we'll probably regret.  I don't see watkins contract the same way though.  The shorter contract is much more palatable especially with a younger player.  

I wasn't a fan of paying berry before we did that contract, but that was mostly because of the position.  Took some heat for that opinion but hopefully both guys have great years. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

14 minutes ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

Im not suggesting the chiefs staff isnt trying to win, only we as fans should not give them a pass of losing this year.

russel Wilson, rothlisberger, flacco,  carson wentz having their teams win superbowls while on their rookie contracts isnt a fluke.

its also why you see the rams going crazy in free agency this year, they know they have to pay their qb soon and are taking advantage of this window

Damn straight that rookie QB contract is a game changer and gives you a clear advantage if you have a legit talent.  Fortunately we’ve got 4 more years.  And I’ve got no doubt they expect to be contenders in three of those and hope to be this year even with incomplete team. 3 picks in top two rounds next year plus ample CAP space mean we can go a long way towards fixing secondary.  

And finally it should be noted that in the history of the NFL there has never been a starting QB start a season as a 22 year old and win Super Bowl.   Anything is possible. Records are made to be broken.  Incomplete teams occasionally win a Super Bowl.   But realistically we have plan in place that starts giving us a real chance next year.   That’s the point.  Build a sustained core group that can consistently win in January.   

 

[xen 1,010,220]

Meh there's also never been a superbowl winning qb that makes more than 20 mil a year but that record will go down sooner or later.  For context i think 2013 was the first year a qb went over 20M per.

[FANATIC 852]

27 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

Damn straight that rookie QB contract is a game changer and gives you a clear advantage if you have a legit talent.  Fortunately we’ve got 4 more years.  And I’ve got no doubt they expect to be contenders in three of those and hope to be this year even with incomplete team. 3 picks in top two rounds next year plus ample CAP space mean we can go a long way towards fixing secondary.  

And finally it should be noted that in the history of the NFL there has never been a starting QB start a season as a 22 year old and win Super Bowl.   Anything is possible. Records are made to be broken.  Incomplete teams occasionally win a Super Bowl.   But realistically we have plan in place that starts giving us a real chance next year.   That’s the point.  Build a sustained core group that can consistently win in January.   

 

I think its 3 years after this season.

[Thegoatee 1,780]

2019? Why not 2022? KC loves five year plans.

I just want to watch fun football. Alex Smith takes all the fun out of the game as a QB. Yeah, he won games, but I look forward to a gunslinger not a pocket panicker.

[Mloe68 1,521]

48 minutes ago, xen said:

Meh there's also never been a superbowl winning qb that makes more than 20 mil a year but that record will go down sooner or later.  For context i think 2013 was the first year a qb went over 20M per.

The Super Bowl has been around for 50 years and it’s never happened.  It’s not a fluke, the position is just that hard to learn at this level. The 20 million dollar number really isn’t relevant and that “record” will obviously fall many times over as CAP grows. . What is relevant historically is that no team that pays its QB more than 13 percent of its CAP space has ever won a Super Bowl. There’s a good reason for that one as well. 

Even in the era of the rookie pool I wouldn’t bet on 22 year old QB getting it done.  But we are certainly going to see more and more younger QBs having legit shots with the CAP advantage you get. 

[robgar 1,046]

actually the rookie contract for the qb really doesnt have that much to do with anything..

... the number of sacks in a season doesnt correlate to wins. -- this shouldnt be the only measure of houstons effectivensess.

 

Look back, over the past charger games, and you will see several examples of

past performance doesnt guarantee success..

 

but hey, its the first game of the season, and its an afc west game... lets get it on... Chiefs win big time..

[sith13 1,746]

3 hours ago, Mloe68 said:

The Super Bowl has been around for 50 years and it’s never happened.  It’s not a fluke, the position is just that hard to learn at this level. The 20 million dollar number really isn’t relevant and that “record” will obviously fall many times over as CAP grows. . What is relevant historically is that no team that pays its QB more than 13 percent of its CAP space has ever won a Super Bowl. There’s a good reason for that one as well. 

Even in the era of the rookie pool I wouldn’t bet on 22 year old QB getting it done.  But we are certainly going to see more and more younger QBs having legit shots with the CAP advantage you get. 

13% is a nice threshold. A lot of QB contracts are going way higher than they should and the market is just stupid to let that happen. Since the new CBA cap raised about 25% but QB salaries doubled in the same period. I would expect a little more increase due to the cheap rookie contracts but that shouldn't raise the market more than 40%. This is just bad business and interestingly no team that paid their QB top money ever won anything and I'm not sure if that'll change anytime soon. QBs needs players around them to make something happen and that's not a cheap process. 

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

11 hours ago, CranjisMcbasketball said:

The players i am most specifically referring to are berry and houston. We have a lot of the cap tied into these two and have gotten almost zero return on investment. That was the unfortunate scenario i talk about.

when your qb makes no money you have a window to load the rest of your roster.

Our extra money is going to berry, houston, and now watkins.

We better hope watkin pans out, or the window of mahomes on a cheap contract will quickly close amd the opportunity will be lost.

we already wasted a year of him making no money with him sitting the bench.

honestly don’t see how anyone could disagree with these points as they aren’t opinions just the facts.

 

 

Its the old argument about whether you keep your best players and  pay them big time if necessary, or have a continuous revolving door, quick to let go, relying on draft and spot acquisitions, and showing little loyalty.  Either way, the fans will be pissed and say the other way is the only way to go.  But both approaches have been successful. Personally, i think you have to keep your best players, win a championship, then let them all flee for big money and start to re-build all over again. A few teams have remained strong over a decade or more.  Virtually all of them have a top tier QB.  I think we may have that and should cut bait on the dead weight, take the hit, and coach the hell out of the young guys on a first contract. Most teams want to win now and are more than willing to pick up overpaid stars in exchange for draft picks.  The Chiefs have been like that under some GM's, and it always ended in years in the wilderness.  Cut bait.

[jetlord 10,209]

Most team that reload with a new first round QB are starting from a low point. Elway, Manning, and Luck went to bottom feeders.  Rogers is an exception, but he didn't play for three years.  Mahomes is starting with an upper middle class team so slipping from a 10-6 record can still happen and be competitive.  Best news for Chiefs' fans is that the team can peak in two years but still play winning football on the way up.  As someone pointed out earlier in this thread, success this year will be gravy.  

[Mloe68 1,521]

2 hours ago, jetlord said:

Most team that reload with a new first round QB are starting from a low point. Elway, Manning, and Luck went to bottom feeders.  Rogers is an exception, but he didn't play for three years.  Mahomes is starting with an upper middle class team so slipping from a 10-6 record can still happen and be competitive.  Best news for Chiefs' fans is that the team can peak in two years but still play winning football on the way up.  As someone pointed out earlier in this thread, success this year will be gravy.  

Great point Jet. Rarely do teams make this type of move in the middle of absolutely dominating a division. But Andy saw the writing on the wall ahead of the curve. IE. We didn't wait until we were the typical bottom feeders to make this move. It does indeed change the usual narrative. Thing is though the real success we can find from extremely young QBs normally comes when they have a strong defense. What I like here is this isn't Vermeil era where we are ignoring that unit. But like Vermiel era we have got some huge holes there and it seems like a lot to ask a 22 year old to overcome in the short term with any consistency. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

9 hours ago, sith13 said:

13% is a nice threshold. A lot of QB contracts are going way higher than they should and the market is just stupid to let that happen. Since the new CBA cap raised about 25% but QB salaries doubled in the same period. I would expect a little more increase due to the cheap rookie contracts but that shouldn't raise the market more than 40%. This is just bad business and interestingly no team that paid their QB top money ever won anything and I'm not sure if that'll change anytime soon. QBs needs players around them to make something happen and that's not a cheap process. 

I'll give you a good point of reference that really shocked me. The 19th highest paid player in the history of the NFL is Alex Smith. The rookie pool dramatically changed the game and good GMs are figuring that out. Still teams aren't likely to let good QBs go are they? Then again ask Kirk Cousins or even Peyton Manning. Heck ask Khalil Mack who got QB money. 

[jetlord 10,209]

1 hour ago, Mloe68 said:

 . But like Vermiel era we have got some huge holes there and it seems like a lot to ask a 22 year old to overcome in the short term with any consistency. 

I think it's possible that a good defense isn't that far away.  IF the Chiefs can find a starting safety and starting CB.  IF they can replace Houston and Berry.  IF Speaks, Nnadi, and Kpass develop their natural abilities.  A lot of ifs, but it could happen that the defense becomes good enough to support an offense with star quality players enough to become a contender.

[FANATIC 852]

21 minutes ago, jetlord said:

I think it's possible that a good defense isn't that far away.  IF the Chiefs can find a starting safety and starting CB.  IF they can replace Houston and Berry.  IF Speaks, Nnadi, and Kpass develop their natural abilities.  A lot of ifs, but it could happen that the defense becomes good enough to support an offense with star quality players enough to become a contender.

So you are saying if they find 4 above average, very good, quality replacements , and if a few of the others become really good they can be good.  This is why its almost a complete rebuild. 

[Mloe68 1,521]

42 minutes ago, jetlord said:

I think it's possible that a good defense isn't that far away.  IF the Chiefs can find a starting safety and starting CB.  IF they can replace Houston and Berry.  IF Speaks, Nnadi, and Kpass develop their natural abilities.  A lot of ifs, but it could happen that the defense becomes good enough to support an offense with star quality players enough to become a contender.

Agree completely. I can see the plan. Front 7 last year, secondary next year. We've got young promising ILBs, two real prospects at OLB, a high level young CB, a good young rotation at NT and a Pro Bowl caliber young DE. Not to mention the possiblity of Houston and/or Berry still adding a lot the next 2-3 years. Add a young innovative coordinator to bring it all together and I think we could start to see real dividends as early as next year with a strong offseason. 

[jetlord 10,209]

8 hours ago, FANATIC said:

So you are saying if they find 4 above average, very good, quality replacements , and if a few of the others become really good they can be good.  This is why its almost a complete rebuild. 

That's right.  Four quality players is not a complete rebuild.  The Chiefs have three picks in the first two rounds next year and the cap space to get a quality FA or two.  I happen to think there's enough players on the team now with upside to be a good team.  The O-line isn't as far away as some seem to think.  The front seven has potential except for the questionable Houston.  So just like the focus was on front defense this spring, a focus on DBs next year should lead to a pretty solid team.  It's easy to be optimistic without having too many holes to fill.

[Mloe68 1,521]

On 9/7/2018 at 1:17 AM, robgar said:

actually the rookie contract for the qb really doesnt have that much to do with anything..

... the number of sacks in a season doesnt correlate to wins. -- this shouldnt be the only measure of houstons effectivensess.

 

Look back, over the past charger games, and you will see several examples of

past performance doesnt guarantee success..

 

but hey, its the first game of the season, and its an afc west game... lets get it on... Chiefs win big time..

Rookie contact for a QB very much has to do with ability to sign or keep talent around that guy. It’s a gigantic advantage if you’ve got a guy who can play. Mahomes  CAP hit this year is over 12 million less than any other QB in AFC West and that just continues the next 3 years.  Heck he’s the 35th highest paid QB.

[dhitter 1,424]

Call me crazy but I fully expect the Chiefs to win this game. The Chargers are without Joey Bosa. They are without Liugit. They are without Jason Verrett. They are starting a 38 year old tight end who put up very pedestrian numbers last year before he retired. The Chargers Oline has weaknesses and their front 7 is suspect against the run. Philip Rivers has a penchant to implode against Bob Sutton defenses. Andy Reid has won 8 in a row against the Chargers and frankly...it should have been 10 in a row. Reid is also 8-3 when starting a season on the road.

I think the recipe is there for a road win.

[qnet 1,150]

On 9/6/2018 at 10:48 PM, xen said:

Yeah those 2 contracts we'll probably regret.  I don't see watkins contract the same way though.  The shorter contract is much more palatable especially with a younger player.  

I wasn't a fan of paying berry before we did that contract, but that was mostly because of the position.  Took some heat for that opinion but hopefully both guys have great years. 

I'm not sure how you feel about Soren Petro,  but I think it made a good point about the contracts. He basically said the Chiefs waited too long, and should have been on top of getting the contacts done earlier, before they were forced to. 

[dksww 484]

10 hours ago, dhitter said:

Call me crazy but I fully expect the Chiefs to win this game. The Chargers are without Joey Bosa. They are without Liugit. They are without Jason Verrett. They are starting a 38 year old tight end who put up very pedestrian numbers last year before he retired. The Chargers Oline has weaknesses and their front 7 is suspect against the run. Philip Rivers has a penchant to implode against Bob Sutton defenses. Andy Reid has won 8 in a row against the Chargers and frankly...it should have been 10 in a row. Reid is also 8-3 when starting a season on the road.

I think the recipe is there for a road win.

This is anything but crazy.

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

1 hour ago, dksww said:

This is anything but crazy.

No shit.  About 9 out of 10 major sports publications agree.

[Handswarmer 645]

Sports Illustrated Bold Predictions

 Run-pass options (RPOs) were the most-studied tactic by coaches this offseason, and they’ll surge in 2018. But the revolution is bigger than just RPOs. More and more, offenses are designing plays to ­manipulate unblocked defenders: jet sweeps, fake reverse action, mis­direction screens and multi-option zone reads all accomplish this. The five teams that do that best: Eagles, Patriots, Chiefs, Saints and Rams. All except the Chiefs are Super Bowl contenders.

Well then, lookey here:

- Eagles looked like crap

- Patriots played a struggling QB

- Saints got rolled AT HOME by Ryan Frigging Fitzpatrick

- Rams played a drunk Chucky team

 

The Chiefs only went out steamrolled the sexy pick of all the pundits in the AFC West.

 

You cannot make this crap up.....

[Fmbl2187 2,279]

8 minutes ago, Handswarmer said:

Sports Illustrated Bold Predictions

 Run-pass options (RPOs) were the most-studied tactic by coaches this offseason, and they’ll surge in 2018. But the revolution is bigger than just RPOs. More and more, offenses are designing plays to ­manipulate unblocked defenders: jet sweeps, fake reverse action, mis­direction screens and multi-option zone reads all accomplish this. The five teams that do that best: Eagles, Patriots, Chiefs, Saints and Rams. All except the Chiefs are Super Bowl contenders.

Well then, lookey here:

- Eagles looked like crap

- Patriots played a struggling QB

- Saints got rolled AT HOME by Ryan Frigging Fitzpatrick

- Rams played a drunk Chucky team

 

The Chiefs only went out steamrolled the sexy pick of all the pundits in the AFC West.

 

You cannot make this crap up.....

👍

[jetlord 10,209]

Hey, the Rams were great.  They forced the Raiders into 155 yd of penalties and three turnovers.  All hail the Rams.