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Most Complete Team in the AFC?


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Doesn't always work like that. Even the most complete team has issues and a less complete team can exploit those to come up with a huge win in playoffs. The goal is to become the most complete team with least flaws but as seen over the years that's not always enough. 2011 Giants were mostly a joke until the last 3 weeks of the regular season and won it all beating teams that were better on paper. 

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1 hour ago, Handswarmer said:

Reading alot from the various pundits on the teams they think are the "Most Complete Team", not necessarily the BEST, but a team that all three facets of the game are working so well that they can go far in January.

 

What say you?

Well I don't think they're talking about KC, because we are not complete.

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I think the Cincinnati Bengals have the right formula, if they don't fall apart down the stretch again.

They have the lines, decent talent at the skill positions, Andy is playing decent, they have a good set of coordinators and the kicking game isn't a total liability.

The Ravens are up there, but I'm not sure if fear over losing his job is going to fuel Joe Flacco for 19+ games.  We'll see.

The Rams are a bit lacking at the skill positions on Defense.  They have maybe the worst LB group in the NFL, secondary is down some without Talib and I'm not sold on Goff willing them along if he has to face adversity.  It's not being mentioned how well his tackles are playing on the edge.

I really like the Chicago Bears this year and I think they are going to be the Cinderella team in the playoffs if tittykisser can keep improving as a QB.

Bengals and Bears are my two picks for underrated teams.

The Chiefs are basically the earlier era Manning Colts.  Maybe their own Bob Sanders (Berry) will come back in time for the playoffs so they aren't exiting early.

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19 minutes ago, liquidfriend said:

I think the Cincinnati Bengals have the right formula, if they don't fall apart down the stretch again.

They have the lines, decent talent at the skill positions, Andy is playing decent, they have a good set of coordinators and the kicking game isn't a total liability.

The Ravens are up there, but I'm not sure if fear over losing his job is going to fuel Joe Flacco for 19+ games.  We'll see.

The Rams are a bit lacking at the skill positions on Defense.  They have maybe the worst LB group in the NFL, secondary is down some without Talib and I'm not sold on Goff willing them along if he has to face adversity.  It's not being mentioned how well his tackles are playing on the edge.

I really like the Chicago Bears this year and I think they are going to be the Cinderella team in the playoffs if tittykisser can keep improving as a QB.

Bengals and Bears are my two picks for underrated teams.

The Chiefs are basically the earlier era Manning Colts.  Maybe their own Bob Sanders (Berry) will come back in time for the playoffs so they aren't exiting early.

I agree with you about the Bears. I've watched them a couple of times this year and they look exactly like the 2015-16 Chiefs with a good defense. I watched them lose a game a couple of weeks ago because Naggy went into his shell in the second half, ala Andy Reid. Hopefully he learned his lesson. 

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Baiting us into saying Baltimore aren't you Handswarmer. Well I'll give your boys credit because I've been impressed from what I've seen so far. I think ultimately being well rounded means you can win games in a number of ways rather that being pigeonholed. From that perspective I do think your upgraded WRs and TEs give the Ravens that type of potential.

For the most part a team like KC needs to get into a shootout to beat the really good teams. If we can goad that into happening anything is possible. But in the playoffs as we saw last year, you almost need to be able to win the slugfest and the shootout. 

I'll stay on point here believing the Jags are best equipped to do this and proved it in last years playoffs. However until proven differently there's no way I'd bet against the Patriots. With Edelman back and Gordon providing a legit deep threat we all know that BB can dial his defense up when needed.

In the NFC the Rams and Eagles both fit the bill. And if the Saints can get the defense back where it was at the end of last season, they will be factor in January as well. 

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3 hours ago, liquidfriend said:

I think the Cincinnati Bengals have the right formula, if they don't fall apart down the stretch again.

They have the lines, decent talent at the skill positions, Andy is playing decent, they have a good set of coordinators and the kicking game isn't a total liability.

The Ravens are up there, but I'm not sure if fear over losing his job is going to fuel Joe Flacco for 19+ games.  We'll see.

The Rams are a bit lacking at the skill positions on Defense.  They have maybe the worst LB group in the NFL, secondary is down some without Talib and I'm not sold on Goff willing them along if he has to face adversity.  It's not being mentioned how well his tackles are playing on the edge.

I really like the Chicago Bears this year and I think they are going to be the Cinderella team in the playoffs if tittykisser can keep improving as a QB.

Bengals and Bears are my two picks for underrated teams.

The Chiefs are basically the earlier era Manning Colts.  Maybe their own Bob Sanders (Berry) will come back in time for the playoffs so they aren't exiting early.

Not buying the Bengals. They are a solid team but that defense is giving up almost as many points as ours and we all know they have an average QB. Not understanding why you think they are better than Jax. Also not buying into the Bears. Eagles, Rams, Saints and Vikings are all clearly more well rounded superior teams even if they haven't played like it yet. 

 

Among the NFL’s seven 3-1 teams, Tennessee’s path has been the least sustainable, and it’s not particularly close.

 

 

3_1_teams.png

  • Second-order wins: Take all of a game’s key stats (the ones above, plus a few other stragglers), toss them into the air, and basically say “based on these key stats, you could have expected to win this game X percent of the time.” Add each game’s post-game win expectancy together (a 50 percent probability = 0.5 wins), and you get a team’s second-order win total.

Margins (yours minus your opponent’s):

  • Marginal efficiency: a team’s success rate, adjusted for down, distance, and field position.
  • Marginal explosiveness: a team’s explosiveness (as measured by Isolated Points Per Play, or IsoPPP), adjusted for down, distance, and field position. You can learn more about marginal stats here.
  • Scoring opportunities: drives in which you achieve a first down inside your opponent’s 40 (or score a touchdown from outside the 40). For pro football, I also include drives that result in a field goal attempt, whether or not there was a first down inside the 40.
  • Points per scoring opportunity, field position margin, and turnover margin: exactly as they sound
  • Turnovers luck: the difference between a team’s turnover margin and its expected turnover margin, which is determined using long-term fumble recovery rates (which regress toward 50 percent over time) and the long-term ratio of interceptions to pass breakups (typically about 1-to-3.5).

Second-order win totals suggest that Jacksonville, New Orleans, Baltimore, and Cincinnati have truly played like 3-1 teams or close to it, while Chicago and Miami have been more like 2-2 ... and Tennessee has been more like 1-3. In terms of SRS, the Titans grade out worse than the 1-3 Colts. In DVOA, they are 24th, behind five one-win teams.

Efficiency is the most direct path toward sustainable success, and the Titans ... have not followed that path. The Titans have been drastically less efficient than their opponents, and they have dealt with some field position advantages as well. The only ways they have been better than their opponents have been in red zone performance and turnover avoidance (in terms of both actual and expected turnovers).

No take-backs, of course. If the Titans’ offense improves as Mariota gets closer to full-strength, then Tennessee could theoretically improve overall, which could allow them to keep winning even if the close-game fortune fades. And this good fortune has allowed them to remain tied with Jacksonville for first in the AFC South a quarter of the way through the season. Even if the Jags pull ahead, Tennessee could still be long involved in the wild card race — go .500 the rest of the way, and you’re 9-7.

Still, the fundamentals desperately need to improve. Vrabel probably knows this as well as anyone, no matter how solid his defense is, and no matter how naturally Tresselian he and his team have proven to be.

 

Ndamukong Suh’s new strategy to sack quarterbacks is to punch the s*** out of them

 
 
 
 
 

 

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Why am I on the Bengals?  They have pass-rushers and they just went 3-1 without having their best LB on the field and their #1 RB for a chunk of the year.  Burfict is back and Mixon will be back soon.  They also have big threats at WR with Tyler Boyd is finally playing up to his potential.  The Bengals are a threat and already have a win over the Ravens.

 

As for the Jaguars, when it comes down to it, you gotta have a legit QB if you want to reliably make it into the Super Bowl.  Brady has and still is legit, which is why they go nearly every single year.  Bortles isn't consistent at all and if you get him second guessing himself, you got him beat.  That's how the Patriots blanked him in the 2nd half in the title game.  They really benefited a lot from the AFC South being a pretty bad division and an easy slate to Foxboro.

The talk is focused on the Jaguars, when it really should be on the Tennessee Titans.  I didn't think Vrabel would do much, but he has that team playing really well. 

As for the Bears, Vic Fangio is right up there as one of the best Defensive coordinators in the game and they got a heck of a front 7.  Trubisky will have to improve over the year, but I'm start to see some glimpses of it.

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44 minutes ago, liquidfriend said:

Why am I on the Bengals?  They have pass-rushers and they just went 3-1 without having their best LB on the field and their #1 RB for a chunk of the year.  Burfict is back and Mixon will be back soon.  They also have big threats at WR with Tyler Boyd is finally playing up to his potential.  The Bengals are a threat and already have a win over the Ravens.

 

As for the Jaguars, when it comes down to it, you gotta have a legit QB if you want to reliably make it into the Super Bowl.  Brady has and still is legit, which is why they go nearly every single year.  Bortles isn't consistent at all and if you get him second guessing himself, you got him beat.  That's how the Patriots blanked him in the 2nd half in the title game.  They really benefited a lot from the AFC South being a pretty bad division and an easy slate to Foxboro.

The talk is focused on the Jaguars, when it really should be on the Tennessee Titans.  I didn't think Vrabel would do much, but he has that team playing really well. 

As for the Bears, Vic Fangio is right up there as one of the best Defensive coordinators in the game and they got a heck of a front 7.  Trubisky will have to improve over the year, but I'm start to see some glimpses of it.

Personally I don't see much difference right now between Dalton or Bortles and the Jags clearly have a better defense. I heard M Schwartz break them down today and he said what's clear is they go 7 deep on that d-line with players that could start nearly anywhere else. Same formula which sent the Eagles to the Super Bowl. 

Go back the read that statisical analysis I posted and you will see the Titans have the least sustainable way of winning while the Jags have the most sustainable. Saints win that award in the NFC at least of the 3-1 teams.

The Bears play a very week schedule which could help them get into the dance but I can't see any reasonable scenario they can do damage once they get there against a very deep league.Theyve yet to beat a playoff team. Then again you can make a good case neither have we. At LEAST two of our next three games will be against teams that will be playing in January. Maybe all three. Huge three weeks. 

 

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11 hours ago, Handswarmer said:

Reading alot from the various pundits on the teams they think are the "Most Complete Team", not necessarily the BEST, but a team that all three facets of the game are working so well that they can go far in January.

 

What say you?

 

How about the best offense bitch and that’s the CHIIIEFFFFFSSS

AFC gonna have to ride thru Arrowhead lmao!! 

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26 minutes ago, DieHard said:

They got a pretty legit D though. If we had that D, look out.

We saw today that D wont beat KC Offense. Look at Sea and Rams. Over 60 points. Both teams quote good Ds. Well times have changed. Rules favor offense BIG TIME.

Chiefs will play those guys later this year. Should be fun. Hands Warmer can keep his hands in his pants.

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On 8/2/2018 at 4:29 PM, dhitter said:

So Alex Smith never threw an interception...or even multiple interceptions during camp? Part of Mahomes learning process is to see what he can or cannot get away with in camp so he knows what to do or not to do in real games. He also threw some amazing TD passes. I would be okay of Mahomes threw 2 picks in a game if his play was such that we still won. Winning is all that matters. We will see when the bullets are real.

 

On 8/2/2018 at 8:33 PM, dksww said:

We wont win any games he throw 2 picks a game.  Our defense is still a huge question mark.  

 

You were saying?

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