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KC Defense - Statistically Are They That Bad?


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After hearing many experts, pundits, fans from other teams as well as members of Chief's Kingdom expound on how terrible the Chief's defense has been this year, I wanted to take a look statistically to see if the facts bear out that opinion. From what I can tell, I not only see weekly improvement by the Chief's D, but I see we are much closer to being a "middle of the road" defense than being one of the worst in the league. Here are my thoughts:

1) I am basing my opinion/claim purely on points scored/allowed. People who claim the Chiefs are the worst defense in the NFL are only looking at yards given up. In my opinion, that statistic is one of the worst definers of a defense you can use. In the Chiefs case, most of the games are out of hand by the 2nd-3rd quarter and it becomes garbage time. I would bet that most of the yardage given up by the defense skews towards the 4th quarter.

2) The defense often stiffens on 3rd down and in the Red Zone. Oftentimes, the Chiefs give up big plays due to poor positioning, poor tackling or blown assignments. All of those are fixable with either better coaching or better players. I think the defense is still a work in progress and I have no doubt Veach will address it this offseason. That being said, I see a grittiness in the defense the past few weeks that was simply missing the first quarter of the season. That is encouraging.

3) KC has played four of the top 10 scoring teams in the league already this year (Pittsburgh, LA Chargers, New England and Cincinnati). You could also argue that San Fran might have been a top 15 offense when we played them. Denver is top 20 and the only really weak offense we have played is Jacksonville. 

4) Defenses are down across the league. That is just a fact. The Chiefs are currently 21st in points allowed per game. Not great but certainly not as terrible as some people keep spouting. There are currently only seven teams that allow less than 20 points a game (Baltimore, Dallas, Tennessee, Seattle, Washington, LA Rams and Philadelphia). You could consider these teams having good to great defenses. Then you have those that allow 20-24 points a game. There are only 5 additional teams on that list (Chicago, Houston, Jacksonville, Carolina and the LA Chargers). The next group goes from 25-26 points a game.  Those include Denver, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, New England and KC. Not a bad group to be in, huh? In fact, the team that is 20th in scoring (one in front of the Chiefs?) is New England. You never hear "well their offense is really good but their defense will kill them in the playoffs".

5) As I stated earlier the defense is improving. In three of the last four games, the Defense held their opponent to less than their season average in points scored (the exception being the Pats game). 

The defense is missing some key pieces, no doubt about it. I am encouraged that some players are showing improvement and that some young guns have stepped up when called upon. Our draft this year was looking a little weak but suddenly the rookies are making major contributions. Hang in there Chiefs fans, I think we'll see a better defensive product as we go and next year should be great!

DEFENSIVE POINTS ALLOWED          
                 
Team Played Points Avg   Team Played Points Avg
Balt 8 137 17.125   Ari 8 199 24.875
Dall 7 123 17.57143   Buff 7 175 25
Tenn 7 127 18.14286   NYJ 8 200 25
Sea 7 131 18.71429   NE 7 179 25.57143
Wash 7 134 19.14286   KC 8 205 25.625
LAR 8 155 19.375   NYG 8 205 25.625
Phil 8 156 19.5   NO 7 183 26.14286
Chi 7 144 20.57143   Clev 8 210 26.25
Hou 8 167 20.875   Det 7 186 26.57143
Jax 8 170 21.25   Indy 8 213 26.625
Car 7 152 21.71429   Mia 8 219 27.375
LAC 7 163 23.28571   SF 8 236 29.5
Den 8 194 24.25   Cin 8 237 29.625
Minn 8 195 24.375   Atl 7 212 30.28571
Pitt 7 172 24.57143   Oak 7 218 31.14286
GB 7 173 24.71429   TB 7 233 33.28571
                 
                 
OFFENSIVE POINTS SCORED            
                 
Team Played Points Avg   Team Played Points Avg
KC 8 290 36.25   Sea 7 171 24.42857
NO 7 234 33.42857   Det 7 171 24.42857
LAR 8 264 33   NYJ 8 192 24
NE 7 214 30.57143   Den 8 188 23.5
Pitt 7 204 29.14286   Phil 8 178 22.25
Indy 8 231 28.875   Mia 8 174 21.75
TB 7 201 28.71429   SF 8 173 21.625
LAC 7 195 27.85714   Clev 8 169 21.125
Chi 7 194 27.71429   Wash 7 146 20.85714
Cin 8 221 27.625   Dall 7 140 20
Atl 7 190 27.14286   Oak 7 138 19.71429
Car 7 178 25.42857   NYG 8 150 18.75
GB 7 175 25   Jax 8 134 16.75
Hou 8 197 24.625   Tenn 7 106 15.14286
Balt 8 197 24.625   Ari 8 110 13.75
Minn 8 197 24.625   Buff 7 81 11.57143

 

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I think the stats we need to see are average yards per play and number of plays over 15 yards. Breakout yards per play by pass and by rush attempt as well. Our offense is probably the best at scoring points, which is the only reason we are 7-1. Colquitt hasn’t had to punt much (least in league).

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I'm a numbers guy and like stats, but the Chiefs defense is also defined by the Donks drive just before the half yesterday, the Pats drive and the end of the game there, and the near miss at the end of the game in Denver where Keenum missing a wide open TD saved the Chiefs.  When the game is on the line, no defense is always going to win, but we too often get the "here we go again" feeling when the Chiefs really, really need a stop.

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1 minute ago, jetlord said:

I'm a numbers guy and like stats, but the Chiefs defense is also defined by the Donks drive just before the half yesterday, the Pats drive and the end of the game there, and the near miss at the end of the game in Denver where Keenum missing a wide open TD saved the Chiefs.  When the game is on the line, no defense is always going to win, but we too often get the "here we go again" feeling when the Chiefs really, really need a stop.

Exactly.

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2 hours ago, Thegoatee said:

I think the stats we need to see are average yards per play and number of plays over 15 yards. Breakout yards per play by pass and by rush attempt as well. Our offense is probably the best at scoring points, which is the only reason we are 7-1. Colquitt hasn’t had to punt much (least in league).

They showed a stat yesterday that we were #1 in giving up plays 20 yards or more in the league.

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If you were picking fresh........What players are worth keeping for sure and based on current contracts/value?  Forget whether you can or can not cut them. Who would you peeps keep?

 

Jones, Scandrick, Ford, Fuller, Nelson for sure...

I would cut Houston & Berry for sure.

Speaks, Kpass, and this years draft picks based on low contracts and potential.

Honestly there is not many worth keeping. Most of the others would be left unclaimed if waived.

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1 hour ago, FANATIC said:

If you were picking fresh........What players are worth keeping for sure and based on current contracts/value?  Forget whether you can or can not cut them. Who would you peeps keep?

 

Jones, Scandrick, Ford, Fuller, Nelson for sure...

I would cut Houston & Berry for sure.

Speaks, Kpass, and this years draft picks based on low contracts and potential.

Honestly there is not many worth keeping. Most of the others would be left unclaimed if waived.

Lucas?

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