It's on Sutton vs. Players have to make plays

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

Excellent take from Seth Keysor (The Athletic)

 

NFL coordinators often make for convenient punching bags.

Year after year, the story is the same. An NFL team struggles on offense or defense, and the fans turn on the coordinator in charge of that side of the football. It makes sense intuitively: Coordinators are at the top of their particular group, and as the saying goes, when it starts raining, the top of the mountain gets hit first.

As such, it’s time to have a conversation about longtime Chiefs defensive coordinator Bob Sutton.

Chiefs fans have been blaming Sutton for the team’s defensive failures since his first year on the job in 2013. Over the years, I have more often than not written about why those criticisms may be unfair or lack context. But now in his sixth year as Kansas City’s DC, it’s time to seriously examine what the Chiefs have accomplished on defense during his tenure.

As has often been discussed in this space, stats don’t tell the story for an individual player during the course of a game. However, when gauging team performance, certain stats can be quite telling, as they can be answers for the “what” questions more so than the “why.” The key is finding the right stats, ones that aren’t as affected by the offense or strength of schedule as simple points per game or yards per game do.

Football Outsiders uses a statistic called defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) to gauge the efficiency of a defense. A detailed explanation of that stat can be found here, but it’s essentially a measurement of how a team does on every down and distance — ie. it takes situation into account — compared to league average. Football Outsiders does this for total defenseand also isolates for pass defense and run defense. They also track yards allowed per defensive drive and points allowed per defensive drive, a far more effective way of tracking what a defense is doing independent of the offense.

Looking at how the Chiefs have done since Sutton took over as the defensive coordinator using these metrics reveals a pretty rough overall picture and an even more concerning trend. The numbers are the team’s league rank in each category:

Overall, the Chiefs have been a mediocre defense at best under Sutton. They have had two seasons in which they were close to being very good — though not quite to that level — but the rest of his tenure has consisted of defenses that are below average in almost every way.

It’s worth noting that the years Sutton had defenses with good DVOA were 2013 and 2015. The reason that’s noteworthy is because of the personnel KC had in those seasons. A quick look at the rosters those seasons — here’s 2013 and 2015 — reveals a great deal of talent across all positions in those seasons, particularly at safety. It’s difficult to imagine a DC not having success with the defensive rosters Sutton had those years.

When looking at Sutton’s defensive history with the Chiefs, the talent available at safety seems to be one of the strongest indicators of how well the defense will perform. Without versatile players like Eric Berry, in-his-prime Ron Parker (not the 2018 version), Husain Abdullah, Quintin Demps and Tyvon Branch, things fall apart. Sutton is known for preferring safeties he can move around and play at every possible spot, so he favors knowledge of his system (such as the current version of Parker, Dan Sorensen and Eric Murray) to seemingly more talented players he doesn’t trust to follow his system (such as Jordan Lucas). This has been to the team’s detriment the past two seasons, as Sutton has stuck with inferior performers because they know where to line up and what to do each play.

The one redeeming quality Sutton’s defenses had his first four seasons was that they were top 10 in points allowed per drive. The old expression of “bend but don’t break” applied to those defenses, as they generally gave up plenty of yards but managed to hold teams to field goals in the red zone or force punts after allowing a bit of movement.

Unfortunately, as can be seen above, it has been a steady downward trend since 2015. In 2017, the Chiefs ranked 21st in points allowed per drive, by far the lowest of Sutton’s tenure. A great deal was made of the Chiefs’ defensive personnel issues, and there was a large turnover in players on that side of the ball, which will be discussed shortly. However, despite an influx of new and one would assume Sutton-approved players on that side of the ball, the defense has somehow been even worse in that area this season, cratering to 28th in points allowed per drive.

In short, throughout his six years as the Chiefs’ DC, Sutton has managed to field two above-average DVOA defenses. He has never had a defense in the top 5 of DVOA while having three in the bottom half of the league and two in the cellar.

After a 2017 season in which the Chiefs’ defense took a clear step backward, the blame was placed on the team having a lack of personnel to properly execute Sutton’s system. In response, the Chiefs brought in multiple new contributors: Kendall Fuller, Anthony Hitchens, Xavier Williams, Orlando Scanrdick, Derrick Nnadi, Breeland Speaks and Dorian O’Daniel. These players have taken a combined 4,068 snaps this season. That’s a massive defensive overhaul, yet the results have been depressingly similar to what the 2017 product looked like.

Even more concerning, some of the talent that has been brought in has looked worse in Kansas City than on previous teams. Linebacker Anthony Hitchens was treated like a star when he was brought in, and while he wasn’t a “great” player in Dallas, he was a very competent defender. He has looked like a shell of that player in Sutton’s system, which brings into question why every single inside linebacker not named Derrick Johnson has been mediocre to poor under Sutton (including Reggie Ragland).

Fuller, meanwhile, has played well, but hasn’t been as dominant as he was in Washington. Williams also has played worse in Kansas City than he did in Arizona. It’s concerning when players cannot produce at a similar level to previous stops, especially at different levels of the defense.

Leaving aside statistics, the anecdotal evidence against Sutton’s tenure as defensive coordinator is stacked a mile high at this point. In each of the Chiefs’ losses this season, the defense had an opportunity to put the game away, holding a late lead in the fourth quarter. Each time it failed to do so. Chiefs fans no doubt remember the epic defensive meltdown against the Indianapolis Colts in the playoffs on Jan. 4, 2014, when the team surrendered a 38-10 third-quarter lead and lost, 45-44. Even more fresh is the memory of a helpless defense allowing the Tennessee Titans to score three straight touchdowns to overcome a 21-3 halftime deficit in the Chiefs’ most recent playoff loss on Jan. 6.

Considering the Chiefs’ three losses have come in games in which they led in the fourth quarter, it has become apparent that the team’s D simply cannot be asked to consistently carry any of the burden.

We’ve addressed the issues both statistically and anecdotally, but Sutton also has made mystifying decisions regarding which players see the most playing time. The most recent example of this is the mysterious benching of fan favorite Jordan Lucas, who surprised many with his play at safety during a brief stint due to injuries. While Lucas wasn’t great by any means, he made enough plays that he stood out among a safety group that has struggled this season. Despite this, Lucas has completely disappeared from the rotation in favor of players who are struggling.

The decision to keep Lucas on the bench is one of many Sutton has made over the seasons regarding talented players who didn’t see the field as much as they should have. Husain Abdullah, Chris Jones, O’Daniel, Terrance Mitchell and Branch are a few of the players who, over the years, either it took too long for them to get serious playing time or didn’t see action until injuries cleared the way despite appearing to be superior options to players in front of them. In the meantime, players like Frank Zombo, Parker, Sorensen and Kendrick Lewis see multitudes of snaps as everyone scratches their heads.

Coaches have their reasoning for who sees the field, of course, but the unfortunate reality is that when a defense performs as poorly as the Chiefs have the last few years, the benefit of a doubt regarding those decisions goes away. This is especially true when the same problems tend to crop up over and over again despite different players on the field.

The issues with the Chiefs’ defense were on full display at the close of Thursday night’s loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. A touchdown by running back Damien Williams put the Chiefs up, 28-14, with 8:15 remaining in the game. At this point, all the Chiefs needed was a single stop to seal the game, or even a drive in which they held the Chargers to a field goal.

Instead, the Chiefs gave up two touchdowns on long drives. While there were a variety of things that went wrong, some of the big problems Sutton’s defenses have had were apparent, including the now-infamous two-point conversion Thursday in which a defensive miscommunication hurt the Chiefs, this time costing them a win.

This is a simple defensive communication error that should not happen to an NFL team in such a crucial situation. Cornerbacks Orlando Scandrick and Fuller are outside and inside in man coverage, respectively. Given the alignment of the receivers, the corners need to switch if their men cross one another in order to prevent being picked. Fuller recognizes that his man is going outside and switches, but Scandrick does not. The result: the ugliest defense imaginable on a game-deciding play.

While it makes sense to place blame for this kind of miscommunication on the players themselves, that’s becoming more and more difficult to do as the same mistakes occur year after year under the same coaching staff. At a certain point, as the names change but the same problems emerge, the question needs to be asked whether there’s a systemic issue in what’s being taught or how it’s being communicated.

All-Pro safety Eric Berry’s return Thursday was rightly celebrated by Chiefs fans, and he provided a major boost to the defense in the first half before taking his planned second-half rest to ensure a smooth return to action. However, Berry’s return snapped into focus just how much miscommunication and misalignment might be occurring on defense, as he spent more time correcting placement of defenders than one would expect this late in the season from a player who just got back on the field.

This happened more than once Thursday, and it leads to the question: If that’s what is occurring when Berry is on the field, who is making the corrections when he’s not? And how could veterans of Sutton’s system possibly not know where to line up or what their coverage was? There are no answers to those questions without being in the huddle, but it’s concerning.

Beyond that, Sutton’s decisions down the stretch against the Chargers were frustrating to watch. Too often on the Chargers’ final two drives, Sutton elected to roll with basic man coverage with two safeties over the top, arguably the simplest defense in football. The results were predictable, with Philip Rivers identifying the coverage easily and exploiting defenders stuck in man with safety help too far back to assist.

These three plays were some of the biggest chunks of yardage the Chargers were able to pick up, and were major factors in Los Angeles being able to march down the field and score twice in a short amount of time. They were not only oddly simplistic looks for Rivers to read and exploit, they featured safeties that were too far from the action to help with anything but downfield bombs. The final play, a 4th-and-7 conversion that made a Chiefs loss feel inevitable, was particularly rough: Fuller played good coverage on the play, but with Rivers knowing he was in man with no help, he simply needed to place the ball in a spot for the completion to work.

It’s easy to watch games like Thursday’s loss and arbitrarily demand for heads to roll. But in this case, the failures Thursday weren’t isolated events, but rather a continuation of issues that have existed for some time. When looking objectively at Sutton’s track record in Kansas City, it becomes apparent that not only have his defenses been mostly unimpressive, they are trending in the wrong direction. Given the issues players have had switching to the Chiefs’ system, the communication issues that have plagued various personnel groups for years and the ease with which opposing quarterbacks have taken apart the defense in close games, the evidence is strong that the Chiefs need to look elsewhere for a defensive coordinator this offseason.

[reesebobby 5,663]

It's clear that players have to make plays.  But it's also clear to me that some coordinators have the ability to draw that from the players.  You don't see Rex Ryan defenders mailing it in.  So even if the argument is that the players are not making plays, that comes back in part to the coordinator.  At least IMO. 

[Legend of AC 269]

And yet here we are...Sutton still doing his thing and Andy tell us all that “we’ve got to do a better job”.  His reluctance to change is going to cost us once again this year.  

[reesebobby 5,663]

2 minutes ago, Legend of AC said:

And yet here we are...Sutton still doing his thing and Andy tell us all that “we’ve got to do a better job”.  His reluctance to change is going to cost us once again this year.  

Yes.  And his continuity also makes us good every year.  A steady hand is also important.  But it's time for Bob. 

[Legend of AC 269]

16 minutes ago, reesebobby said:

Yes.  And his continuity also makes us good every year.  A steady hand is also important.  But it's time for Bob. 

Not disagreeing, but Andy also needs to be able to recognize when a change is needed that will benefit his football team.  My guess is that it happens after this year.  

[dksww 484]

27 minutes ago, Legend of AC said:

Not disagreeing, but Andy also needs to be able to recognize when a change is needed that will benefit his football team.  My guess is that it happens after this year.  

I think you are right. 

Here's what I think happened after last season:  Reid and Veach went to Sutton to see what the issues were on defense.  Sutton stated it was a talent issue.  Now, the defense has always had to deal with injuries to key guys like Houston, Berry and Ford over the 5-6 seasons with Sutton, but you still got to find a way to find results.  Veach and Reid agreed to ship out Marcus Peters and bring in talent through the draft to see what improvements could or could not be made this year.

Unfortunately/Fortunately, those improvements have not been seen on the field. 

Sutton is responsible for player development as well.  Outside Chris Jones and Dee Ford, we really haven't seen any players get better while under Sutton as DC. 

It just sucks that we're all probably going to have to sit through another embarrassing playoff loss/debacle in order for any changes on defense to occur.

Double edged sword I'm afraid. 

[Chiefmanzada 466]

QBs as good as Rivers can place the ball where they want so it would be wise to pressure the man with high quantity of people rushing the passer. He will always be more relaxed knowing only 4 is rushing. 

 

Sutton didn't bring the heat, cost us the game. 28 points at Arrowhead should be enough. The D is the problem, year in year out. No more excuses for this coordinator. QBs should fear the hell out of Arrowhead 

[Chiefmanzada 466]

Not blaming Andy for any loss this season. He's orchestrated a masterpiece on offense. 

Playoffs is another story. He will be on the hot seat then. 

[Chiefmanzada 466]

As for the players, we need DJ's successor. 

He's not on the team this season. 

[qnet 1,158]

58 minutes ago, Legend of AC said:

Not disagreeing, but Andy also needs to be able to recognize when a change is needed that will benefit his football team.  My guess is that it happens after this year.  

I really, really hope you're correct. 

[Legend of AC 269]

There’s no way in hell Andy doesn’t recognize that his defense is sabotaging Mahomes’ success.  So, it comes down to Sutton, or Mahomes leading us to a SB.  Sutton is gone after this year.

[dksww 484]

2 minutes ago, Legend of AC said:

There’s no way in hell Andy doesn’t recognize that his defense is sabotaging Mahomes’ success.  So, it comes down to Sutton, or Mahomes leading us to a SB.  Sutton is gone after this year.

Fingers crossed.

But like I said earlier, unfortunately it's only going to come on the heels of another embarrassing playoff loss. 

[DieHard 2,061]

Need an influx of talent and coaching both. I believe this is Bob's last year.

[liquidfriend 1,151]

1 hour ago, Legend of AC said:

Not disagreeing, but Andy also needs to be able to recognize when a change is needed that will benefit his football team.  My guess is that it happens after this year.  

That's what will keep Andy Reid in the Martyball territory vs the Bill Walsh or Jimmy Johnson territory.

Won't put winning up there at all costs.

[Troyofoc 361]

I think andy has to pull the trigger this offseason. 

[Thegoatee 1,783]

Bend but don’t break is a terrible philosophy. To me, it is something you hope to employ if you have inferior talent. Yet we’ve been in this scheme since day one. 

We need some fire on defense from the coaching staff. I’ve never seen Sutton express any emotion.

[qnet 1,158]

1 hour ago, liquidfriend said:

That's what will keep Andy Reid in the Martyball territory vs the Bill Walsh or Jimmy Johnson territory.

Won't put winning up there at all costs.

This is what I'm afraid of. 

[moons314 2,463]

Our defense is going to struggle until one of two things happen. 1. Berry stays healthy. Or 2. We get a legitimate replacement for Berry.  In its current form the defense relies way too much on a guy that misses way too much time.  Berry’s ability when he does play is so much that it keeps us from aggressively finding another top notch player at that position. Sutton’s defense needs that safety to be successful. If Sutton stays, we have to find an answer at Berry’s position that can actually get on the field.  If we’re gonna continue the dance of waiting on berry to get healthy, we have to go a different direction at dc.  If Berry isn’t always hurt, Sutton isn’t catching near as much heat.  

[soonerborn77 276]

I wonder if any head coaches getting fired will convince Andy to bring them on, guys like Rivera or Bowles who are his former coaches. 

 

[Mloe68 1,521]

Keyser has really been on the same bandwagon I have that the past few years we haven't had the type of talent necessary for any coordinator in any scheme to do much with. But as I said earlier we have three impact pass rushers which is REALLY hard to find in this league and I think two decent corners on the back end. We are not asking Sutton to make filet out of chopped liver here in my opinion and clearly Keysor agrees. That's not to say we don't have some real personel issues. But again I think a good scheme can coach up the underperforming players next year and a good draft as well as 1-2 tactical free agents can get us from bottom feeders to mediocre. And that is truly all we need with the offense we have coming back. 

[dhitter 1,426]

I fully understand that the back end of our defense is hot garbage. Made even more stinky by the absence of Fuller. Here is where the article kind of loses it for me. Failure to acknowledge that Sutton often employs sets that do not fit the players or the game situation. No excuse for rushing 3 late in the game when we put so much effective pressure early on. No excuse. Knowing our back end defense is the weakest link Sutton still employs just about as much nickle and dime packages during a game as any DC. He favors certain players over others that make no sense. Sorenson has showed me nothing since his return. Lucas, who showed some promise when he got PT, is nowhere to be found. It's these types of boneheaded decisions that should get Sutton fired. I just don't think Andy will do it unless someone above him demands it.

[Iluvhouse24 1,808]

Bottom line is that Bob Sutton is our DC. He is responsible for every player, and play call in that side of the ball. Thats what being the boss is.

Andy Reid is responsible for Bob Sutton. There is just no damn way Reid can look Clark Hunt in the eye and be supportive of this guys job performance and endorse keeping him. 

Because Clark Hunt is responsible for Andy Reid. And if Reid wants to not only win titles but keep his own damn job, he has to do better. This offense is excellent. Our special teams are damn good. But we arent getting the job done. This isnt a hard puzzle to put together.

This is a business and its results driven. Thus guy cannot be retained when the performance of his unit is costing us wins. Big wins.