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AFCCG Predictions


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2 hours ago, Mloe68 said:

I'm not buying that narrative anymore the way we dismantled a Colts team that had lost only one game since mid October. The playoffs are largely about who has the better QB and when all that is equal it's anyones game. Our prior playoff record had everything to do with being clearly outclassed at QB in nearly every loss. Those days are over. Certainly doesn't mean we can't lose to the GOAT and an experienced Patriots team. But we aren't playing against history anymore. 

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2 hours ago, Burpo The Mad Clown said:

As much as my good sense tells me the Chiefs will blow it again, something in my gut tells me they will win.

It's up to the defense. If they can make the Pats look average, the Chiefs win going away. 

But, geez. It's the Pats. In the playoffs. And the Chiefs. In the playoffs.

 

I am very unrealistically optimistic about this game.  Historic game, no doubt.  

Makes you wonder... Joe Montana talked recently about how he thinks losing that late season game to Minnesota caused us to have to play the AFCCG at Buffalo where it was 10 degrees and he said he could barely throw because of the cold.  Whereas it was 57 degrees at Arrowhead that same day.  Makes you wonder if our history would not have unfolded differently from there.  KC had beat Buffalo at Arrowhead earlier that season if I recall  correctly.

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It should be about 20 degrees at Arrowhead for the game according to current models.  Nobody has a problem in that.  It is run of the mill winter football.  Passing completion percentages are hardly lower at that temp.  They also didn't have the kind of high tech insulated gloves and battery warmed gloves back then, and Montana had kind of small hands and didn't often have to play in major cold weather. Heavy snow during a game, can make the turf slick, and even with cleats, can mess up sharp cutbacks and in routes a bit, so the straight ahead bull runners have an advantage if its snowing.  Ware would be very helpful if that happens, but it won't.  It is supposed to be clear.  I haven't seen anything about wind, but nothing unusual is expected. Gusty wind would mess with passing and kicking. But I think this is going to be a non-issue in all respects in this game. Clear sky.  20 degrees, normal breeze. Layered up fans screaming at the top of their lungs. If we win the battles up front, we have the edge.

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3 hours ago, xen said:

I am very unrealistically optimistic about this game.  Historic game, no doubt.  

Makes you wonder... Joe Montana talked recently about how he thinks losing that late season game to Minnesota caused us to have to play the AFCCG at Buffalo where it was 10 degrees and he said he could barely throw because of the cold.  Whereas it was 57 degrees at Arrowhead that same day.  Makes you wonder if our history would not have unfolded differently from there.  KC had beat Buffalo at Arrowhead earlier that season if I recall  correctly.

Absolutely. KC did not play their best game by any means. There were dropped balls, guys open for touchdowns, and players injured. Morse, Houston, Berry and others didn't even play in the first match. 

The secondary was pure trash at that point and has made big strides since. Ward and Lucas are major upgrades over Parker, Scandrick, and Murray. Since Murray was benched, everything changed for the better. It took too long to pull the plug on Kendrick Lewis under Sutton as well. Safety is such a huge deal in this defense. 

Our defensive line is Super Bowl caliber in all aspects. The last few champions have hAD disruptive defensive lines. 

We have not lost a step on offense after waiving hunt. I think it affected their pshyce more than their performance. Damien Williams is a baller.

I haven't even mentioned how much better Mahomes has been since his few losses. Learning on the fly.

I could go on.

Its KC's time to win it all... 

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6 minutes ago, Calichief said:

Absolutely. KC did not play their best game by any means. There were dropped balls, guys open for touchdowns, and players injured. Morse, Houston, Berry and others didn't even play in the first match. 

The secondary was pure trash at that point and has made big strides since. Ward and Lucas are major upgrades over Parker, Scandrick, and Murray. Since Murray was benched, everything changed for the better. It took too long to pull the plug on Kendrick Lewis under Sutton as well. Safety is such a huge deal in this defense. 

Our defensive line is Super Bowl caliber in all aspects. The last few champions have hAD disruptive defensive lines. 

We have not lost a step on offense after waiving hunt. I think it affected their pshyce more than their performance. Damien Williams is a baller.

I haven't even mentioned how much better Mahomes has been since his few losses. Learning on the fly.

I could go on.

Its KC's time to win it all... 

One point to mention. Murray was back in the lineup big time last week with DOD out playing over 80 percent of the snaps. 

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I think the biggest factor will be avoiding penalties and turnovers.  If you look at the games to this point, the teams that have made the most mistakes have lost.  Texans had a lot of penalties against the Colts, especially defensively on 3rd down.  Chargers were a hot mess against NE, and Indy wet the bed in Arrowhead with drops and key penalties.

The Pats will NOT make those mistakes.  If the Chiefs make them, they're going to have a tough time recovering.

I still like the Chiefs by 1.  I think it's going to be epic.

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25 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

One point to mention. Murray was back in the lineup big time last week with DOD out playing over 80 percent of the snaps. 

He made a couple of tackles. He is not a good football player. I have seen zero potential. 

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7 hours ago, DefensiveMan said:

Mahomes has been turnover free since the Baltimore game. Impressive.

It seems to me that he has been throwing his short and intermediate darts low to the ground, and his target has to catch it low, cradle it, and then hit the ground.  This is so consistent in the last few games, that I wonder if it is by design.  These are balls that are incomplete a little more often but simply can't be picked off.  Either the receiver gets it or no one does.  Maybe this is a conincidence or maybe it is by design.  He has the smarts and accuracy to pull it off.  Have you noticed that, or is it my imagination? It might explain the absence of picks in the last 3-4 games.

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There's analysis, over analysis, over the top analysis and out of this world analysis ....  it is here, in every sports article, in every sports talk show on radio and TV.  However, no amount of analysis will give us the winning team in Sunday's game.   The Chiefs are a better team, they have more talented players .  I am completely biased by predicting the Chiefs will win 38 to 21 . 

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16 minutes ago, Evad said:

There's analysis, over analysis, over the top analysis and out of this world analysis ....  it is here, in every sports article, in every sports talk show on radio and TV.  However, no amount of analysis will give us the winning team in Sunday's game.   The Chiefs are a better team, they have more talented players .  I am completely biased by predicting the Chiefs will win 38 to 21 . 

May the best team win.

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Listening to the boys on the Border Patrol on Sportsradio 810 finish up their show today gave me chills as they did a wonderful job of expressing just how special this moment is for Chiefs fans and this city in general. They had me ready to drive to the stadium right now and get this thing going.

We don't know what's going to happen on Sunday, but man this is what you live for as a fan. An opportunity to win a championship game in your home stadium. I'll never forget being at Game 7 of the World Series in 2014 when we lost a heart breaker. But man was that still fun and a memory that will last a lifetime. And here we are again in a similar situation 500 yards across the parking lot. It's almost surreal. But lets not wait another year to finish the job this time. Why can't this be OUR TIME right here, right now!

Chiefs 30, Patriots 27

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43 minutes ago, Mloe68 said:

Listening to the boys on the Border Patrol on Sportsradio 810 finish up their show today gave me chills as they did a wonderful job of expressing just how special this moment is for Chiefs fans and this city in general. They had me ready to drive to the stadium right now and get this thing going.

We don't know what's going to happen on Sunday, but man this is what you live for as a fan. An opportunity to win a championship game in your home stadium. I'll never forget being at Game 7 of the World Series in 2014 when we lost a heart breaker. But man was that still fun and a memory that will last a lifetime. And here we are again in a similar situation 500 yards across the parking lot. It's almost surreal. But lets not wait another year to finish the job this time. Why can't this be OUR TIME right here, right now!

Chiefs 30, Patriots 27

Was that segment after they had Clark Hunt on?  I'm hoping they put it on the podcast.

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45 minutes ago, Iluvhouse24 said:

I think it will be close. But Im still waiting for that moment of clarity where I just KNOW this is our year. That gut feeling...

To me it’s already been our year after last week. 3 straight AFC West titles and most importantly ending the “curse” and finally getting to celebrate coming out of Arrowhead in January.  This is gravy compared to expectations.  But I want the gravy too!! 

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From PFF:

Pick: Chiefs 30- 26 (Chiefs cover)

Point (GC): The spread in this game insinuates that the Chiefs and Patriots are equals on a neutral site. This is noteworthy for two reasons. First, the Chiefs (not the Patriots) are actually the team that is being underrated by the public, making them the pseudo-underdog. Second, the Chiefs are unequivocally better than the Patriots overall and particularly on offense which, as it turns out, is the most predictive facet of football. The combination of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid is truly unmatched; they combine genius play-design with the ability to make magic happen outside the structure of the play. The Chiefs rank first in yards per play on their first two drives (7.4), and they are the only team to score on 50% or more of their first two drives (16 for 32 this season). They also average the most yards per play on quick game concepts and screen passes, while Mahomes ranks first in percentage of targets to receivers with a step or more of separation and passer rating from a clean pocket, all of which are testaments to Andy’s brilliance. Pat’s love for Reid is not surprising given that he’s admitted to loving another oddly shaped bottle that is red all over, and the results on the field go a long way to supporting that. Mahomes has been classified as somewhat of a gunslinger; the belief is that he will throw you a couple during a game and you just have to take advantage. Since the Rams game, this has simply not been the case — he ranks second to only Drew Brees in avoiding negatively-graded throws since that game. Brady, on the other hand, ranks 13th in that area this season.

Perhaps the number is lower because of Kareem Hunt’s absence. LOL. The Chiefs averaged the same yards per rush with him in the lineup as they have without him.

Some things do matter, and one of them is the Chiefs pass rush that owns the second-most productive pressure trio since Houston’s return. While the Arrowhead advantage is a bit overblown, the crowd noise should definitely help the Chiefs’ pass rush get a jump on the Patriots’ offensive line that kept Tommy squeaky clean last week. He may be pliable, but elusive he is not. Chiefs move on to the Super Bowl decisively.

Counterpoint (EE): New England was the right side of the game between the Chiefs and the Patriots in Week 6, and while the Chiefs came away with the cover, a blueprint for beating the Chiefs was laid out for New England. After their drubbing of the Chargers last week in Foxboro, the Pats ascended to a tie for first (and second in the NFL) in early-down EPA per pass play (+0.22). As we talked about on the SI Gambling show and the PFF Forecast last week, Tom Brady was leading the NFL in percentage of third-down passes that were dropped going into last week, something that is not particularly stable year-to-year or even game-to-game, so it’s savvy to pay more attention to the early-down success for the Pats, which has been good.

While the Chiefs’ defense has played great at home this season, their two best opponents there have been the Chargers and the Colts, and the biggest personnel benefit for them down the stretch has been the improvement of undrafted rookie Charvarius Ward, a player whose weaknesses Bill Belichick will be more equipped to exploit than anyone. While the Colts were unable to take advantage of the likes of Anthony Hitchens and Reggie Ragland last week, the combination of James White and Sony Michel could give the Chiefs’ defense fits over the middle of the field as well.

I like that we’re on the Chiefs side in this one, but there’s certainly a case to be made for the two-time AFC champion here, so buckle up.

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